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France faces political deadlock after shock election result, calls grow for Biden to quit, and Barce͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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July 8, 2024
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Flagship

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The World Today

  1. Political chaos in France
  2. Calls for Biden to quit
  3. Europe’s NATO confusion
  4. US extreme weather
  5. Israel election protests
  6. Kenya leader protests
  7. Barcelona tourism protests
  8. China’s tourism boost
  9. Argentina aims for lithium
  10. Fake Mars experiment ends

The London Review of Substacks, and Flagship recommends a book about the changing myths of US history.

1

Political chaos after shock France result

France faces political deadlock after a leftist alliance won a shock election victory, upending expectations that the far right would triumph. President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble calling the snap vote to defeat Marine Le Pen’s surging National Rally. His centrist party ultimately finished second behind the leftists, with Le Pen’s bloc third. Macron’s prime minister has offered to resign, although the president may yet refuse. What happens now is unclear: The three main groups each control about a third of Parliament and are not fond of one another. A coalition is one possibility, Le Monde reported, or a weak minority government in danger of a vote of no confidence. Alternatively, new elections may be called for next year.

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2

Biden’s week of challenges

Nathan Howard/Reuters

US President Joe Biden faces growing scrutiny over his White House candidacy from within Democratic ranks as legislators return to work this week. Congressional sources told Semafor’s Kadia Goba that a “flood” of lawmakers will ask Biden to step aside, with worries increasing that his poor debate performance last month portends defeat at the hands of Donald Trump. The president has sought to rally supporters on campaign stops, and a NATO summit in Washington, DC, this week could help him demonstrate endurance and energy, which Democrats say has been sorely lacking — particularly compared to Trump, whom The New York Times noted “employs hateful language [and] mixes up names, dates, and places,” but “does it all with prodigious stamina.”

For more on Biden’s prospects, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

How Europe tumult affects Asia

Mohammed Badra/Pool/Reuters

Europe’s “political turmoil” — as short-term crises combine with long-term demographic challenges — means the continent struggles to play a prominent global security role and makes it harder for the US to focus on China, a prominent Asian analyst warned. The former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan argued in Foreign Policy that Europe had for too long cut defense to maintain social spending, and was “now paying the price” as it sought to strengthen security following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Writing ahead of tomorrow’s NATO summit in Washington, DC, Kausikan said that meant Europe would remain dependent on the US, which thus could not concentrate on China. The headline of his piece was simply, “Asia sees confusion.”

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4

US hit by deadly heat, storms

Hurricane Beryl approaches homes in Texas. Adrees Latif/Reuters

The US is facing extreme weather across the country. A tourist died of “severe heat illness” in Death Valley, California, where temperatures reached a record 128°F (53°C), an excessive heat warning was in effect for about 36 million people nationwide, and 160 deaths in Arizona were linked to recent high temperatures. Alaska’s glaciers are facing a “tipping point,” a scientist wrote in Ars Technica, as the summer snow line retreats and exposes more dark land, thus melting more snow and creating a feedback loop. And Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas, ahead of a move up through eastern states — an unusual occurrence for July. More than a million Texans are under a hurricane warning, and thousands were ordered to evacuate.

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5

Israelis call for hostage deal

Eloisa Lopez/Reuters

Israelis brought traffic in Tel Aviv and other cities to a standstill in protests calling for elections and a deal to free hostages. Sunday marked nine months since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that killed 1,100 people and led to Israel’s devastating assault on Gaza, which has left more than 38,000 dead. Families of hostages fear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would prioritize political survival over peace: Nationalists in his coalition said they would bring down the government rather than make a deal before Hamas is destroyed. Tentative progress towards a ceasefire has been made, but a deal is not imminent. Netanyahu “needs war so there won’t be elections,” one protest leader told The New York Times.

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6

Kenya’s unpopular populist president

Monicah Mwangi/Reuters

Kenyan President William Ruto, a populist, has badly misjudged his country’s popular mood, prominent Kenyan writers argued. In separate pieces on Substack, in The Guardian, and in The Elephant, they warned that the protests — which were initially triggered by an unpopular bill raising taxes, but have since become broader demonstrations against Ruto’s rule — “caught him by surprise,” and said he must urgently “change tack.” In particular, one noted that young people’s role in the protests augured deeper shifts in Kenya, with demonstrations increasingly organized without political parties or civil society groups, instead developing via social media with no central leader.

For more on the protests in Kenya, subscribe to Semafor Africa’s newsletter. →

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7

Barcelona protests tourism

Bruna Casas/Reuters

Anti-tourism protests erupted in Barcelona, with locals arguing the influx of overseas visitors was causing a cost-of-living crisis. Barcelona saw 15.6 million tourists last year, and the industry accounts for 14% of GDP. But rents in the city were up 18% in June year-on-year, and have risen 70% over the last 10 years. Protesters squirted tourists with water guns and held up signs saying “Go home!” The left-wing mayor told a news conference that he would end tourist licenses granted to landlords, essentially abolishing Airbnb-style rental services — which he said was equivalent to “building 10,000 new homes,” and should reduce rents. Tourism groups said the move was a “smokescreen” for the government’s failure to build enough houses.

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8

China’s tourism sector booms

China’s push to lure foreign tourists appears to be bearing fruit, with incoming international arrivals more than doubling in the first six months of the year. Though overall foreign visitor figures were still below pre-COVID levels, the surge in the number of travelers represented a boon for a country grappling with slow economic growth since it lowered pandemic restrictions. Beijing has sought in particular to attract tourists from abroad by easing payment regulations, relaxing rules for hotels accepting foreigners, and lowering visa barriers: Citizens of dozens of countries, including many in Europe and Asia, can now visit visa-free, obtain visas on arrival, or transit for several days.

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9

Latam lithium dominance grows

Argentina will sharply expand its supply of lithium, a mineral key to the global energy transition, further cementing Latin America’s role in the green economy. Buenos Aires will open four new lithium mines in the coming months, Bloomberg reported, increasing capacity by around 80% and helping it catch up to neighboring Chile, currently the dominant regional producer. The expansion of lithium mining offers a boost for Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who is attempting to refashion the country’s beleaguered economy. Lithium is already reshaping regional politics: Bolivian President Luis Arce blamed an apparent attempted coup on “foreign and national interests” seeking the country’s lithium stores. “How could they not want them?” he told El País.

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10

NASA Mars volunteers emerge

The four volunteers who lived and worked inside NASA’s first simulated yearlong Mars habitat mission. NASA

Four volunteers who lived inside a NASA-run simulated Mars habitat for over a year emerged yesterday. The “Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog” mission began 378 days ago: The astronauts (or terranauts?) lived all that time in a 1,700-square-foot 3D-printed dome called Mars Dune Alpha, seeing how people would cope with life on the red planet. The mission allowed them to experience the isolation and claustrophobia of the real thing, but not the reduced gravity, increased radiation levels, or nine-month journey to get there in a glorified tin can. Nonetheless, NASA hopes the test will provide valuable information for future real Mars missions, intended for the late 2030s or early 2040s.

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Flagging
  • Hungary’s prime minister meets with China’s leader in Beijing.
  • Colombia publishes annual deforestation data.
  • Performers descend on the British capital for the London Clown Festival.
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LRS

Poor things

The natural state of humanity is poverty. For almost all our history people lived as subsistence farmers on the edge of famine. Wild animals exist in a constant Malthusian struggle to survive. “To ask why some societies in the world are still poor is the wrong question,” writes the economics blogger Noah Smith. “Poverty is the default condition.” Poverty — a shortage of resources — is humanity’s greatest and oldest enemy, and the interesting question is how so many of us have escaped it, not why some of us have not.

The wonder of the world is that in rich countries, “almost all of us manage to stay a few steps out of reach of that monster for our entire lives.” That is the product, Smith argues on Noahpinion, of industrial modernity, “our single weapon against the elemental foe.” When people denounce economic growth, “they are denouncing the very walls of the fortress that has allowed them to live more than an animal existence” — although that growth must be sustainable. “If we burn the walls of our fortress to throw a party in the moment, there will be nothing left to protect our descendants, and the foe will devour them.”

Carefully vetted

Animals take drugs too. “I have a bit that I do when people ask me what I do,” writes the pharma scientist Trevor Klee. “I say, ‘I work on drugs for cats!’” And when they ask him what kind, “I say, ‘Oh, you know, methamphetamine, LSD.’” If that doesn’t shut the conversation down, he reveals that he works on therapeutics for serious feline diseases, and people often want to know: What are the regulations for animal drugs?

Just like with human medicine, there are rules, says Klee. But all of them are easier to navigate. For one thing, the stakes are lower — “injuring or killing someone’s pet is not as serious as injuring or killing a person.” And, crucially, you can test the drugs on the species they’re intended for: Animal testing is much more reliable when you’re targeting actual animals. On the flip side, the market is much smaller: People are understandably less willing to spend vast sums to keep an animal alive than a human. “My rule of thumb is that drugs developed for animals cost 10x less than their comparable drugs in humans,” says Klee, “but also they make 10x less in revenue.”

Original gangsters

The Sopranos is 25 years old. Its star, James Gandolfini, died in 2013, six years after the last episode aired. He was, argues Ben Sixsmith on The Zone, “the last victim of Tony Soprano” — when the pilot aired in 1999, Soprano was “a heavyset but active and playful man”; by the finale, both he and the man who played him were “obese and exhausted.” Gandolfini’s off-set issues were part of the reason, but “the weight of Gandolfini’s job must have played a part.” As Tony tells his second-in-command: “You’ve got no fucking idea what it’s like to be number one.”

Gandolfini helped make a work of art “as close to agelessness as popular culture can withstand,” argues Sixsmith. It’s a fun, funny show — “without compromising its dramatic qualities,” and underneath Tony and his goons wisecracking “the seething mistrust between them could erupt in bloodshed at any time.” It has a moral depth: Its characters have choices, even if they make the wrong ones. “The Sopranos lives on — entertaining and appalling, as human life has always been and will always be.” Contains spoilers for The Sopranos, unsurprisingly.

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Semafor Recommends

A Great Disorder, by Richard Slotkin. The historian’s latest work is a “sequel and an extension” to his previous analyses of American myths, the London Review of Books noted. In A Great Disorder, he argues that the political and cultural crisis the United States is going through is the result not only of economic and societal factors, but also of a lack of “unifying myths” that provide people with shared views and beliefs. The myths that once helped make sense of American history are now “absorbed into the culture wars, reflecting divergent understandings of foundational American values,” the LRB added.

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