Security

Luxembourg: The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called Russia’s blockade of ships carrying Ukrainian grain a “war crime” and said Moscow is solely responsible for the global food crisis after pulling out of a United Nations-brokered deal that allowed wheat exports to safely pass through the Black Sea. Russia attacked key port cities across Ukraine for several nights, disrupting the export of wheat, corn and other farm products.

Baghdad: Iraq threatened to sever diplomatic ties with Sweden after a man desecrated a copy of the Quran in Stockholm. Earlier in the Iraqi capital, protesters had stormed and set fire to parts of the Swedish embassy in Baghdad. Experts criticized Baghdad’s warning, saying that it is likely a move used to appease the influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose followers stormed the Swedish mission.

Pyongyang: North Korea said Thursday that the deployment of U.S. weapons in South Korea could be met with the use of nuclear weapons. The warning comes after White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell touched down in Seoul, where he attended talks with South Korean officials on how to better coordinate against a nuclear response from up North. Last September, Pyongyang passed a law enshrining the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes.

– Karina

Iran detains a fourth American, complicating prisoner talks

THE SCOOP

Iran has arrested and detained a fourth U.S. national, further complicating the Biden administration’s efforts to secure an exchange of prisoners and lower tensions with Tehran.

The arrest of the American citizen, described to Semafor by three people briefed on the case, is now a central part of stepped-up negotiations between the two countries aimed at swapping Iranians detained in Western prisons for U.S. nationals. The talks, which have taken place in Oman as well as other countries, also revolve on the U.S. agreeing to green light the release of billions of dollars of Iran’s funds frozen in overseas banks, such as in South Korea.

Iranian officials have for months publicly suggested a deal was imminent, a position the Biden administration has disputed. But the inclusion now of a fourth American, whose identity we are withholding to avoid jeopardizing negotiations over their release, could be leading Tehran to up its demands, said the people briefed on the case.

To date, the U.S. has said publicly it’s focused on gaining the release of three Iranian Americans: businessmen Siamak Namazi and Emad Shargi and environmentalist Morad Tahbaz.

The Biden administration declined this week to provide comment to Semafor about this fourth case. But National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan alluded to it last week during an interview on Face the Nation. “We have tried very hard to secure the release of the four unjustly detained Americans in Iran, we have done so since the day that President Biden took office,” he said on Sunday.

A person directly briefed on the case and close to one of three Iranian American families told Semafor on Thursday: “Multiple senior officials at the State Department in the last few weeks have privately emphasized the U.S. and Iran have already agreed the fourth American will be part of any deal and there are no delays being caused by [the person’s] inclusion.”

To read Jay’s view and the view from Iran, click here.

Andrew King is a venture capitalist and partner at the San Francisco-based investment firm, Bastille Ventures. Next week, his team is launching the advocacy and trade association, Future Union, which tracks the exposure of American companies to the Chinese market and grades them on a scale of A to F.

The Russian mutineer, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is transiting covertly between Belarus and Russia to protect himself as Vladimir Putin continues to calculate how best to respond to his former ally’s betrayal, CIA chief William Burns told the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday. The U.S. spy chief noted that the Kremlin boss views revenge as a “dish best served cold.”

Burns said Prigozhin’s military rebellion has exposed serious fissures in Russia’s ruling class. But he said Putin isn’t responding rashly, seeing how he can best cut off Prigozhin from the Wagner Group militia he created, which has been perhaps Russia’s most effective fighting force in Ukraine. “I think what he’s going to try to do is separate Prigozhin and undercut him but preserve what’s of value to [Putin] as well,” Burns said.

The CIA is seeking to exploit this political instability, Burns said, noting it recently launched a Telegram video encouraging Russians to spy for the U.S., with the hope of shaking Putin’s faith in his own system. “We had two-and-a-half million views of that Telegram video in the first week it was on, so the truth is there’s a lot of disaffection in Russia,” Burns said. “We’re not wasting the opportunity as an intelligence service to try to take advantage of it.”

Despite Putin’s woes, Burns acknowledged that Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russian forces isn’t making the fast gains many had hoped. He cited deeply entrenched Russian positions and the pervasive positioning of mines. “I don’t think it should come as a surprise to anyone that the counter-offensive is a hard slog,” Burn said. “Offense is a lot harder than defense. The Russians have had months to prepare.”

— Jay

The amount of grain, in tons, lost to Russian missile and drone attacks since the start of the week.

– Karina

⋉ ADVANCE: U.S. Arms. Ukraine has begun using U.S.-made cluster munitions to push deeper past its front lines in southeastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian official told The Washington Post that the bombs have been used to “break up the trenches” that have prevented Ukrainian forces from retaking territory. The controversial weapon is also expected to be deployed in Bakhmut.

⋊ RETREAT: Russian Arms. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Russian and Kyrgyz technology companies it says have helped the Kremlin obtain weapons components and other useful military equipment.

– Karina

Henry Kissinger

China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu refused to meet his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, last month in Singapore. But the Chinese general, who is sanctioned by the U.S., was more than happy to meet Henry Kissinger on Wednesday.

The 100-year-old American statesman’s tour of China this week is saying a lot about the current state of U.S.-China relations, and also how massively they’ve shifted from previous decades.

Kissinger famously masterminded the Nixon administration’s move to normalize relations with Communist China and isolate the Soviet Union, a gambit that began the process of opening China to the world and supercharging its economy. Chinese officials and state media nostalgically recounted that era in statements made this week. They spoke of the U.S. needing to recapture the former secretary of state’s understanding of Chinese interests.

“U.S. policy towards China requires Kissinger-style diplomatic wisdom and Nixon-style political courage,” Beijing’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, told Kissinger during their meeting on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry website reported. The American diplomat also met Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who notably didn’t see Climate Czar John Kerry or Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during their own visits to Beijing in recent days.

This disconnect between Beijing and Washington was apparent in the Biden administration’s own response to the Kissinger mission. The White House said it’s eager to get a debrief once the statesman returns.

“We look forward to hearing from Secretary Kissinger when he returns to hear what he learned, what he saw,” National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday. “It’s unfortunate that a private citizen can meet with the defense minister and have a communication and the United States can’t. That’s something that we want to solve.”

— Jay

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