Net Zero

1. Harris wins climate cash
2. Biden’s lame duck
3. EVs’ best quarter
4. Open for solar business
5. Arctic war games

The growing nuclear waste problem, and a $50 million deforestation fine.

Dropping out may be the best thing Biden ever did on climate

US Vice President Kamala Harris’ move to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket is driving a surge in fundraising from climate-focused voters who were less eager to open their wallets for President Joe Biden.

Harris’ strong track record on climate — as a major contributor to Biden’s climate agenda, as well as in her previous jobs as a senator and California attorney general — and the sense that she stands a better chance of defeating Donald Trump in November’s election have won her endorsements this week from leading green groups and donors. Money is pouring in, making climate activists a vital source for Harris’ record-breaking flood of donations. A virtual fundraiser led by the climate-focused author Bill McKibben Thursday night raised more than $100,000.

Her success also points to a growing truth in US politics: Whereas Big Oil was long the most powerful energy-related political lobby group in the country, renewables, and clean tech are growing in clout. Harris’ candidacy spotlights how simply energizing the clean-power sector — whose support for Democrats has flagged under Biden — may close the gap with the support Trump can count on from the fossil fuel industry — or overcome it entirely.

The upshot is that dropping out of the presidential race may be the best thing Biden ever did for the climate.

Biden’s lame duck season

Now that Biden knows he has just five months left in office, there’s a lot of climate business to finish quickly — but hitting the gas too hard could backfire. There are still billions of dollars of Inflation Reduction Act funding either unassigned or yet to be doled out, and some tax credit guidance, including the 45V incentive for clean hydrogen, need to be finalized as well. Biden may want to help push through and sign the permitting reform legislation introduced this week by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.V.), since a more climate-friendly version of the bill is unlikely to materialize unless Democrats sweep the election. He could also use the time to appoint more climate-friendly federal judges, and to finalize new rules for LNG exports.

More extreme measures, like rushing out new emissions regulations and climate-related executive orders, or extending development barriers on federal land, could make easy fodder for Trump attacks and hurt the Harris campaign. “This feels like a ‘don’t rock the ship’ moment,” said John Miller, managing director of sustainability at the bank TD Cowen. “No one wants to see a gasoline price spike or electricity blackout, so why push the policy throttle in those spaces?”

EVs’ best quarter

The second quarter of this year was the best ever for global EV sales.

About 2.6 million new EVs were sold globally from April to June, according to the advocacy group New AutoMotive, up nearly 20% from the previous quarter. More than half of these were in China, but new markets in Latin America and Eastern Europe are growing quickly. In the US, Europe, and Asia, one in three new cars now sold is an EV, according to PwC, led by the rapid growth of plug-in hybrid cars in China, sales of which doubled in the second quarter compared to a year earlier.

Open for solar business

Gigawatts of new renewable energy in demand by large companies in Vietnam, that can now be built thanks to a long-sought policy change. Until this month Vietnam, unlike many of its neighbors in Southeast Asia, did not permit companies to sign clean power purchase agreements (PPAs) directly with developers of wind and solar farms, instead requiring all power trade to go through the state-owned utility. PPAs have done more to decarbonize the US and European grids than any other financial mechanism, and not having access to them was a major bottleneck in Vietnam’s energy transition — and a threat to its vital textile business, which is under pressure from Western clothing retailers to reduce emissions. Now, the market is open for PPAs, which “will dramatically alter this status quo,” one Hanoi lawyer said.

Arctic war games

Western military leaders are increasingly alarmed about climate change. The US military risks falling behind Russia and China in its ability to secure the Arctic, a Pentagon report this week warned, as climate change makes the melting region more accessible for commercial and military activity. Securing a stronger foothold in the Arctic is one area where China and Russia are collaborating most closely, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said, and the US is planning to ramp up the frequency of war drills in the region. The Pentagon report follows a similar one this month from NATO, which concluded that climate change is having “a profound impact on Allied security.”

Although the Pentagon was among the first branches of the US government to take the risks of climate change seriously, it has often failed to adequately fund its response, said Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security, a defense-focused think tank. That problem could get worse if Donald Trump resumes the role of commander-in-chief, she said: “Trump’s embrace of Project 2025 and its recommendation to eliminate climate considerations from the military is worrisome. Without addressing climate change in the Arctic, the US will be on its back foot compared to China and Russia.”

New Energy

• China’s solar industry still completely dominates its global rivals. But at home, a civil war is growing that could topple the industry.
• Power market traders in the US are developing a new kind of carbon credit to make sure that utility-scale batteries don’t actually increase emissions from the grid.

Fossil Fuels

• Oil prices would likely fall under a Trump presidency, Citi analysts said.
• For all the talk of an energy transition, global coal demand will reach an all-time high this year. “The cliff-like drop that some analysts anticipate remains a fantasy,” Javier Blas writes in Bloomberg, thanks to growing demand in Asia and India.
• An oil tanker carrying 370,000 gallons of crude capsized near Manila. Cleanup crews have been hampered by bad weather, raising the risk of a major spill.

Finance

• As the voluntary carbon market dries up because of greenwashing allegations, the beneficiaries of carbon projects in places like Brazil are seeing a lifeline of conservation cash disappear.
• A splashy, $30 billion climate fund launched by the United Arab Emirates at last year’s COP is investing, via BlackRock, in a major natural gas pipeline.

Tech

• Olympic athletes in Paris are turning to climate tech to cope with record-breaking heat.

Minerals & Mining

• A gold rush for energy transition minerals is underway in Kazakhstan, with Chinese investors leading the charge.

EVs

• The US could have more public EV charging stations than traditional gas stations within eight years.

Food & Agriculture

• A rancher in Brazil must pay $50 million in fines for illegal deforestation, a court ruled, the country’s largest-ever civil penalty for climate-related crimes.

Matt Bowen, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and author of a new paper on ways the US can solve its growing nuclear waste problem.

• Africa’s food crisis needs innovative funding.
• China’s relationship with the US is in for a reckoning.
• Young voters are moving toward Harris and feeling less ‘meh’ about voting.