Security

Niamey: Niger’s democratically elected president Mohamed Bazoum was seized in a coup by members of the presidential guard Wednesday — sparking condemnation from the U.S. and the European Union. The country’s military backed the takeover and warned that foreign intervention would risk “having disastrous and uncontrolled consequences.” Niger has had a long history of military coups that had lessened under Bazoum’s rule. It is also a key U.S. ally for its drone bases used in counter-terrorism operations.

Pyongyang: North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and a visiting Chinese Communist Party official to showcase the country’s most powerful, nuclear-capable missiles. The U.S. has previously accused North Korea of arming Russia in its war against Ukraine, a claim which Pyongyang has denied. According to North Korean state media, the meeting between Kim and Shoigu was intended to help boost “strategic and tactical collaboration” between the two countries.

Zaporizhzhia: The Ukrainian military is reportedly “moving forward” in its counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, and is aiming to reach the Sea of Azov to cut off Russia’s land access to Crimea. Thousands of soldiers are allegedly equipped with newly-received Western arms. At the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the fighting had escalated, but claimed that Ukraine had suffered heavy losses.

Jeddah: President Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met on Thursday with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in a bid to advance efforts to normalize relations between the Kingdom and Israel. The prince is seeking U.S. defense guarantees and American support for his civil nuclear energy program in return.

— Karina and Jay

The US-China existential struggle for AI dominance

THE NEWS

The U.S. is once again in an Oppenheimer-like existential struggle — but this time with China for dominance in the field of artificial intelligence, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in an interview.

“AI is going to fundamentally change our way of life. It’s going to change how you do your business in the media. It’s going to change DOD. It’s going to change multiple fields and industries,” Esper told me on Tuesday. “We need to get there first and then we need to dominate that space.”

Esper is among a growing number of former Pentagon officials and defense personnel who are plunging into the high-tech space in an effort to rapidly develop AI and machine-learning tools for integration into the U.S. military. The former Raytheon executive, now at the head of a new business venture, stressed that Beijing is currently outspending Washington on AI investments by a factor of three to one. And he said the Pentagon’s Byzantine procurement process must be streamlined to advance the effectiveness of U.S. weapons systems.

“The United States does not have an innovation problem. We’re the most innovative country in the world,” Esper said. “But DOD has a tough time adopting that innovation.”

JAY’S VIEW

Esper — who last year became chairman of the national security practice at Red Cell Partners, a tech incubator focusing on the security and health care sectors — has obvious reasons to push greater integration of AI startups with the military, given his new job, but faces an uphill task.

He argued that Silicon Valley had been wary of doing national security work in past years because of both ideological and business reasons. But he said this was changing as the tech industry recognizes the scale of the China challenge for the U.S., and the potential for AI in both military and commercial ventures. He led a task force at the Atlantic Council this year that produced 10 recommendations on how to better integrate AI and high tech into the military. These included allowing the Pentagon to more directly run a staple of portfolio investments through executive officers and for Congress to allow for more flexibility in the funding of new weapons systems.

Esper said the battle with China for dominance in AI will play out over decades and might be harder to assess than previous geopolitical struggles. The U.S. was the first to detonate an atomic weapon, beating the Nazis and Soviet Union in the effort to build the bomb, making it the clear-cut victor. But the new technology competition might be more episodic.

“I think it’s going to be an ongoing race for dominance, for mastering these technologies,” Esper said. “And it’s important that not just we do it, but we do it with our other Western democracies.”

Still, the U.S. defense industry will be hard to revolutionize, given its size, the scale of its entrenched players, and the divide that’s developed between the national security and technology communities. Also, senior Pentagon officials haven’t had the best track record of transitioning into investing and startups: Among those who served on the board of Theranos — the scandal-wracked blood-testing company whose founder was imprisoned for defrauding investors — were former defense secretary William Perry, and James Mattis, a four-star general who would go on to become defense secretary himself.

To read the rest of story, click here.

Catrina Doxsee is an Associate Director and Associate Fellow for the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

An unlikely news source has emerged as the leader in coverage of the now-suspended Biden administration special envoy on Iran: The Tehran Times.

This Iranian state-owned, English-language publication has penned a string of exclusives about Robert Malley and his legal travails over the past two weeks that have caused a stir at Washington cocktail parties. Journalists and diplomats are asking if the outlet has seemingly unrivaled sources inside the U.S. government — or if it is taking part in some elaborate disinformation campaign on behalf of Tehran’s Islamist rulers, aimed at fueling dissent among the U.S. and its allies.

On July 10, The Tehran Times was the first to provide an exact date — April 21 — for when Malley allegedly was suspended from his post. The publication then insinuated on July 16 that the revocation of the diplomat’s security clearance was tied to his dealings with a network of Iranian American interlocutors. (The State Department hasn’t commented on either allegation, but both track with information sources have outlined to me.)

And this Monday, The Tehran Times linked to an audio recording, purportedly of Malley, as proof that he was actually a hawk on Iran, rather than too soft, as his critics have claimed.

“Malley’s remarks prove in no uncertain terms that he and the Biden administration were pursuing exactly the same Iran policy as the Trump administration,” the publication wrote.

Western and Middle East diplomats who talked to Semafor this week say The Tehran Times exclusives point to two things, neither of which are good: The outlet really has penetrated the U.S. government, or it’s proving adept at information warfare.

— Jay

The amount of grain, in tons, Putin has promised Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, and Eritrea in the next three to four months — an effort to replace Ukrainian grain exports to Africa after Moscow pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal this month.

— Karina

⋉ ADVANCE: Selling Drones. China is moving ahead with the purchase of 15,000 Iranian-made drones, a Middle East official told Semafor, speaking on condition of anonymity, bolstering defense ties between the two U.S. adversaries. Tehran first disclosed the impending sale in February.

⋊ RETREAT: Smuggling Chips. France filed charges against two Chinese citizens and two French nationals in an investigation into the alleged smuggling of advanced chip technology to China and Russia.

— Jay and Karina

Major General Liu Zhan, China’s Defense Attaché in Washington

China’s top military representative in Washington is facing a tough job these days — presenting the People’s Liberation Army as a force for good in a city convinced of the opposite.

On Wednesday, China’s embassy hosted a reception and dinner for diplomats, military brass, and journalists to commemorate the upcoming 96th anniversary of the founding of the PLA. Major General Liu Zhan, China’s defense attaché, was among the convenors and sought to assure the crowd that the very things that consume Congress and the Pentagon’s military planners — the growth of China’s military, the PLA’s maritime prowess, and its development of AI and other advanced technologies — shouldn’t be viewed as a threat.

“The development of China’s national defense is always aimed to meet its legitimate security needs and is always a boost to the force for peace in the world,” he said to the crowd, which indulged in a lavish feast of Beijing duck, shrimp dumplings, and summer fruits.

The general is a seasoned diplomat and has been posted twice before in the U.S., according to Chinese officials. He also served as military attaché in Brazil and Iraq. He mixed his pleasantries about the PLA with strong statements about Beijing’s commitment to reclaiming Taiwan, either peacefully or by force: “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. China must be and will be reunited,” he said. “We will not promise to renounce the use of force.”

Still, Liu’s mission appears to be in flux. This month, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng, became the first Chinese official to visit the Pentagon during the Biden administration — sparking hopes for more direct engagement between Beijing and Washington on military matters.

But also notable at Wednesday’s dinner was the lack of senior U.S. officials, perhaps wary of seeming to honor the PLA. “China attaches importance to developing state-to-state and mil-to-mil relations,” Liu said. “We hope that the U.S. side will take concrete actions to demonstrate sincerity.”

— Jay

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