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Venezuela’s Maduro claims election win despite widespread claims of foul play, Israel’s security cab͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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July 29, 2024
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Flagship

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The World Today

  1. Maduro claims disputed win
  2. Israel prepares response
  3. Rates decisions due
  4. US politics gender split
  5. Olympics gender parity
  6. Russia’s Ukraine gains
  7. Wagner’s Mali losses
  8. US’s anti-China diplomacy
  9. AI weather forecasting
  10. Hair loss treatment hope

The London Review of Substacks, and Flagship recommends an anthology of comic strips published during the dark days of COVID.


1

Both sides claim Venezuela win

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the opposition both claimed victory in Sunday’s presidential election. Despite polls before the election showing the opposition handily beating Maduro in a free vote, the country’s electoral body claimed the incumbent won more than 50% of ballots cast. María Corina Machado, the leader of the opposition, said its counts showed they had won almost three quarters of the vote, while international leaders including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken questioned the government’s results. Maduro had vowed to shore up his autocratic regime’s ties with the army, who have in the past taken his side. “A message to the military,” Machado wrote on X. “It is time to put yourselves on the right side of history.

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2

Israeli readies Hezbollah response

People gather at the funeral of children killed in Israel by a rocket fired from Lebanon. Ammar Awad/Reuters

Israel’s security cabinet authorized the country’s prime minister to retaliate against Hezbollah following an attack that killed 12 people in Israeli-controlled territory. The Iran-backed Lebanese group denied having carried out the strike, but the ensuing tensions nevertheless increased concerns of a wider war. What Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chooses to do will have far-reaching consequences: At home, residents along the Lebanese border voiced fury at his government for apparently ignoring the risks posed by Hezbollah, while abroad, the US cautioned Netanyahu against targeting Beirut. Hezbollah’s choices will also be key. “With the right pressure exerted on it,” one analyst wrote in Foreign Affairs, “the group has enough influence to trigger a broader regional conflict — or help avert one.”

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3

Big week for rates

Three of the world’s biggest central banks will make announcements that determine not just markets’ performance but also developing-country debt obligations. The Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England will all outline interest-rate policy on Wednesday and Thursday: Though the BOJ may actually raise its benchmark rate, the latter two are expected to signal their rate-cutting course for the coming months. The Fed’s decision in particular will have global implications, with countries that issue debt in dollars — poorer nations in particular do so to curry favor with risk-wary investors — hoping for some respite from their interest-payment burden.

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4

US’ gender split

Young US adults are increasingly politically split along gender lines, adding an unexpected wild card to this year’s presidential election. According to a recent poll by The Wall Street Journal, 50% of 18- to 29 year-old men support former President Donald Trump, up 14 percentage points from 2020. Meanwhile almost 60% of women in the same age group said they would vote Democrat, a figure that may well rise given the likelihood of Kamala Harris — one of the country’s most visible advocates for women’s rights since the US Supreme Court’s rollback of abortion — becoming the Democratic candidate. “I think we’re gonna see a year of extraordinary gender polarization,” the journalist Derek Thompson said recently.

For more on the US election, subscribe to Semafor’s Principals newsletter. →

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5

Paris aims for gender parity

Organizers of the Paris Olympics are consciously pushing for gender equality. The official broadcaster urged camera operators to film male and female athletes similarly — “Women athletes are not there because they are more attractive,” its boss told reporters — and a European TV station removed a commentator who joked about women “doing their makeup.” More concrete provisions have also been made, too: These are the first Games to achieve gender parity in athlete numbers. And while earlier Games have ended on the men’s marathon, implying that it is the headline event, this year the women’s will be the finale. Other schedules have put women’s finals after the men’s to reduce the impression that they are the warm-up acts, Le Monde reported.

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6

Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine

Zohra Bensemra/File Photo/Reuters

Moscow’s forces made significant gains in eastern Ukraine, exploiting Kyiv’s manpower shortages. An analyst told The New York Times that “Russians probe the lines to see if a battalion holds or retreats,” and if they find weak opposition, press forward “no matter the losses.” Ukraine’s defenses are poorly organized, with disorderly withdrawals and troop rotations leaving areas undefended within sight of Russian surveillance drones. The Kremlin is not having it all its own way — improved detection systems are picking up more air attacks, The Economist reported, and the first F-16 fighter jets will arrive soon, although officials warn that Russian air defenses are so strong that they will make little difference at first.

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7

Wagner suffers losses in Mali

Wikimedia Commons

Wagner, a Russian mercenary group, said it sustained heavy losses in fighting against rebels in Mali. Authorities in the Sahel country have recruited the group to support a years-long fight against Islamist insurgents, who have turned the region into one of the world’s most volatile. Despite the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin — Wagner’s former leader who was killed in a plane crash shortly after leading a mutiny against Moscow — the group has retained a sizeable presence in Africa, where it offers a “regime survival package” in exchange for economic and mining concessions that experts say are predatory on the local economies.

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Global Journalism

We are excited to announce that Semafor will launch in the Middle East this September, marking a major milestone in our global expansion strategy. Launching on September 16th, Semafor Gulf will feature original reporting and a thrice-weekly newsletter that will examine the region’s transformation, and how its financial, business, and geopolitical decisions shape the world — from culture and investment to infrastructure, climate and technology. The platform will serve as a fresh, new destination for regional audiences, delivering Semafor’s signature independent, intelligent, and transparent journalism to leaders in the Gulf and around the world.

You can sign up for Semafor Gulf here. →

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8

US’ anti-China push in Asia

The foreign ministers of India, Japan, Australia, and the US. Kiyoshi Ota/Reuters

The US launched a renewed push with its allies to pressure China over Beijing’s alleged expansionism in Asian waters. The Quad — a loose alliance between the US, Australia, India, and Japan — voiced concern over militarization of the area, and warned against the use of “force or coercion” in the South and East China Seas, while Washington and Tokyo issued a joint statement labeling China the “greatest strategic challenge” in the region. The US secretaries of defense and state, both of whom are on tours of the region to reinforce American commitment to allies there, are also due to hold talks with their counterparts in the Philippines, which is locked in a protracted standoff with China over a disputed island.

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9

AI weather forecasts match best models

Nic Bothma/Reuters

A new artificial intelligence-powered weather forecasting system achieves results as good as existing models for a fraction of the computing power, research suggested. NeuralGCM relies partly on a classical climate model, with hand-tuned descriptions of atmospheric processes. But it also uses machine learning, searching out patterns in huge amounts of data, to predict less well-understood aspects of the climate, such as cloud formation. The classical model constrains the AI, making sure its predictions obey the laws of physics. Scientists testing the model found that it matched the best existing systems both at short-range, three-to-five-day and longer 10- to 15-day forecasts, while using no more than a thousandth of the computational resources.

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10

Hair loss treatment in mice sparks hope

Wikimedia Commons

An accidental discovery raised hopes for hair-loss treatment. Scientists examining the effects of deoxyribose, part of DNA, on wound healing in mice noticed that fur grew back faster than that in untreated animals. They then applied a gel containing the simple sugar to male mice who had testosterone-driven hair loss, and found “robust” regrowth comparable to the effectiveness of minoxidil, aka Rogaine. The gel seems to boost blood supply to follicles. Minoxidil is only effective in some patients, and the other approved treatment, finasteride (Propecia), has unpleasant side effects in a minority of patients. Around 40% of US citizens experience androgenic alopecia, the most common form of hair loss.

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Flagging
  • East Timor’s president visits China for talks with Xi Jinping.
  • US President Joe Biden is set to travel to Texas to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act.
  • Dozens of divers jump off a bridge in the tourist town of Mostar in Bosnia and Herzegovina, marking 20 years since it was rebuilt following the country’s war.
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LRS

Herald of the change

GK Chesterton, the great English Catholic writer, was prolific and many-talented: He wrote “novels and short stories, poetry, art and literary criticism, philosophy,” and many other things, although he is best known for his novels, such as The Secret of Father Brown, and his works of Christian apologia. On Mind & Mythos, the psychologist Dan Ackerfeld hosts an essay club, and recently, he looked at Chesterton’s short essay A Defence of Heraldry. “Don’t let the length fool you,” warns Ackerfeld. “Chesterton manages to say quite a lot in so few words, and does so with his characteristic style and wit.”

In the essay, the traditionalist Chesterton laments that the great flattening of society, the move away from the idea that kings and lords were great and the rest of us common, came with an “appalling mistake… of decreasing the human magnificence of the past instead of increasing it.” Instead of saying to “the common citizen, ‘You are as good as the Duke of Norfolk, [they] used that meaner democratic formula, ‘The Duke of Norfolk is no better than you are.’” But that magnificence — the pomp and ceremony of the British royal family or ancient Rome — still has a lasting appeal.

The mind’s eye

When someone says “picture the scene,” do you assume it’s a figure of speech? The journalist Katie Herzog always did — during a conversation with family, she was startled to learn that other people literally visualized scenes in their heads — that they “could see actual pictures in their minds.” She is, she realized, an aphantasiac, someone with no visual imagination. “It was as though I’d just found out that my entire family could fly if they flapped their arms fast enough,” she writes on Blocked and Reported, “while I was down here crawling.”

Investigating, she found it was a reasonably common experience, and online sources reassured her that it was not a disability. “The hell it’s not, I thought… I started thinking about all the hidden ways my inability to visualize may have affected my life.” She’s trying to remodel her house, and wondering about new shelving or bookcases: “Would that look good in my house? I had no idea. I quite literally could not picture it.”

State of control

The sociologist James Scott died recently. He was, writes the political scientist Ben Ansell on Political Calculus, “one of the two or three greatest minds in the social sciences of the past half century.” His vision was of “states imposing order on people and people resisting that order” — his most famous book Seeing like a State revealed Scott’s “deep distrust of the ambitions of central states, of technocrats, or market-makers.”

Human affairs are messy and ad hoc; cities and civilizations grow in tangled, unplanned ways. But states need visibility, so they try to impose order: New World cities and reformers of Old World ones “replaced curves with straight lines, alleys with boulevards, local knowledge and custom with the needs and desires of central government.” That local knowledge and custom, though, often served vital purposes — a fact also recognized by GK Chesterton, mentioned above — and too often, states’ central designers would “fall afoul of facts on the ground, or simply smash those facts into dust.”

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Semafor Recommends

Rescue Party, edited by Gabe Fowler. This anthology of more than 140 comic strips published during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, imagining the utopia that awaited society after its resolution, was awarded a starred review by Kirkus, which described it as “an invaluable time capsule,” and one of a spate of high-quality graphic novels released recently. Buy it from your local bookstore.

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