Net Zero

1. Clean energy job boom
2. Far-right wind politics
3. Nuclear meltdown risk
4. Setbacks for Shell
5. Comparing presidents’ energy legacies

The problem with Big Oil’s “nerd fight,” and the companies betting it all on gas turbines.

Clean energy job boom

Clean energy is a leading creator of jobs in the US, new federal data show, but the industry still faces a gaping gender gap.

The clean energy sector added 142,000 new jobs from 2022 to 2023, representing a growth rate of 4.2%, more than double the economy-wide average. Jobs in fossil fuel production also grew during that time, by 2.6%. The jobs data reveals that the boom in clean energy investment spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act is already translating to one of the biggest employment opportunities in a generation. They also offer some evidence that the quality of those jobs is improving: For the first time last year, the average rate of union membership for clean energy jobs surpassed the fossil fuel sector. That’s a direct result of the IRA, which stipulates that clean energy projects can only qualify for the highest tax refund if they meet federal prevailing wage standards and higher a certain number of apprentices. The value of the tax credits, in other words, is high enough to reverse the race-to-the-bottom pay trend that was previously the clean energy industry’s status quo, said Lara Skinner, executive director of Cornell University’s Climate Jobs Institute.

There’s more work to be done to ensure the energy transition isn’t a net loss for workers, Skinner said. That includes better enforcement by tax authorities of companies’ compliance with IRA labor provisions. To solve the industry’s gender gap — 70% of solar and wind workers are men — additional legislation may be required, she said.

Germany’s far right has a new anti-wind energy playbook

BERLIN — Germany has long been a global wind power leader, but a slowdown in expansion and an effective campaign from the far fight threatens to dent its reputation for clean energy.

The Alternative für Deutschland party has made its NIMBY-like opposition to wind a central plank of its platform, pushing the debate over renewable energy to the forefront ahead of three state elections in eastern Germany. The AfD could finish in first place on Sunday in two of those states — Saxony and Thüringia — which were once part of the communist German Democratic Republic.

Some elements of their anti-wind playbook are similar to right-wing talking points in the US or elsewhere in Europe. (Donald Trump this week said wind power “kills the birds, it destroys the fields.”) But in marrying populist talking points with arguments that appeal to simmering local frustrations about clean energy, the AfD’s campaign has developed a novel tactic that seems to have caught on with the electorate. By seizing on a particularly visible issue in rural Germany — where the average voter is more likely to see wind turbines on any given day — the AfD made wind one of its defining issues by pairing its anti-establishment stance with its climate message. If the party gains more power and is able to slow down wind expansion, it would be a bad look for Germany’s clean energy bonafides, and could give ideas to populist actors in other countries that are expanding renewables.

Nuclear meltdown risk

The escalating energy war between Ukraine and Russia is putting the world at risk of a nuclear power plant catastrophe, a top watchdog warned. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, visited the nuclear power plant in Kursk, Russia this week. The plant remains under Russian control, but is increasingly exposed to intentional or accidental damage as a result of Ukraine’s incursion into the region, Grossi warned. The nuclear core of the plant has no hard defenses and there is already evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks on the facility, he said. Grossi warned this month that operational conditions are deteriorating at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Elsewhere in Ukraine, meanwhile, a barrage of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure this week seemed to focus on substations connecting nuclear plants in western Ukraine to the grid. Although the plants themselves were not targeted, a miscalculated strike could be catastrophic, Ukrainian officials warned. Kyiv is also escalating its attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure in Russia, and hit two oil depots this week.

September 23, 2024 | New York City | Request Invitation

Join Semafor for an evening reception with conversations featuring David Hardy, Group EVP and CEO Americas, Ørsted and Kathleen Barrón, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, Constellation. With growing demand for clean energy to power AI and its transformative benefits, the biggest companies are seeking new sources of power. What are the most efficient ways the energy sector can meet the moment and maintain clean, reliable energy for all consumers?

Setbacks for Shell

Share of staff that Shell will cut from its oil and gas exploration division. The layoffs are part of CEO Wael Sawan’s strategy to cut costs, and follow cuts to the company’s renewable energy division this year. It’s not yet clear what the cuts indicate about Shell’s future drilling plans. Some investors remain unimpressed: This week Morgan Stanley cut its share price target for Shell and several of its European oil major peers, over expectations of low oil prices next year.

Presidential energy legacies

The outcome of the US presidential election will likely have little effect on the energy transition, Rystad Energy analysts said in a note.

Republican-led states will account for 57% of US battery manufacturing, 59% of solar panel production, 95% of hydrogen production, and 83% of carbon capture capacity by 2030, the analysis notes, effectively insulating most of critical cleantech tax credits from repeal in the event Donald Trump is re-elected. Republicans are also more likely to take a permissive approach to infrastructure permitting, which could accelerate the pace at which utility-scale renewables projects are built; onshore wind saw stronger growth under Trump than under Biden. Conversely, the trajectory of fossil fuel production is unlikely to change much under a Harris administration. In a CNN interview this week, Harris reiterated that she would not seek to ban fracking.

New Energy

• Equinor scrapped plans for offshore wind farms in Portugal and Spain, citing high costs.
• The list of use cases for green hydrogen that are both genuinely climate-friendly and economic is narrowing, the think tank Energy Innovation warned: Using it to replace chemical inputs in heavy industry makes sense, but using it as a power source doesn’t.

Fossil Fuels

• The UK government handed a victory to climate activist groups in deciding it won’t fight a legal challenge to offshore drilling projects.
• Just three companies are responsible for two-thirds of global gas turbine manufacturing, according to a Global Energy Monitor analysis. The market for new gas turbines is dominated by GE Vernova, which is especially focused on power plant developers in China and elsewhere in Asia. The push by these companies into gas turbine manufacturing could pay off as developing countries race to replace coal in their power sectors with gas. But if the clean energy transition accelerates, the gas business could become a financial liability, GEM warns

Politics & Policy

• Officials in China poured cold water on the idea that the country could meet its emissions targets early; despite the growth in renewables, the country’s economy is still growing fast enough that higher emissions are likely.
• Lobbyists for US airlines pushed to water down European climate regulations, the Guardian reported.

Mining & Minerals

• Despite having some of the world’s biggest critical mineral deposits, miners in Australia are struggling to stay afloat against price-cutting competition with China.
• Startups are racing to develop more efficient methods to mine lithium.

COP29

• White House climate advisor John Podesta will head to China next week for talks with his counterpart Liu Zhenmin to discuss climate finance fundraising and other priorities for COP29.

Food & Agriculture

• US regulators want to crack down on misleading climate labels on meat and poultry packaging.

Mark Finley, fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University’s Baker Institute. In a recent column Finley breaks down the increasing divergence between different companies’ and government agencies’ oil market forecasts.

• China’s Xi meets top White House official as countries try to ease tensions.
• Ukraine pushes US for support on long-range missile strikes against Russia.
• German officials look to push social platforms on image verification.