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In today’s edition, we bring you details about Rep. Mike Gallagher’s two days of meetings with finan͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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September 12, 2023
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Welcome back to Semafor Business, and happy Elon publication day to those who celebrate.

Today’s financiers are a lowercase-L liberal bunch. They came up in a world that was opening up and got very rich off it. Where their money went, political reform seemed to follow, creating a virtuous feedback loop that affirmed the rightness of capitalism. (This is why Davos Man has been so wrong lately.)

The world has taken some very illiberal turns and CEOs have to figure out what to do, particularly about China, which I wrote last week is “too big to ignore but too risky to fully embrace.”

Against that backdrop, New York’s financial set is taking seriously a House committee investigating the U.S.’s strategic competition against China. Its chair, Rep. Mike Gallagher, was in town holding closed-door meetings with investors and executives too afraid to be seen coming down on either side of the issue. “I feel like we’re in witness protection,” he said. More from me and my colleague Morgan Chalfant below.

A quick update to last week’s story on the topic: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, just back from her trip to China, will indeed address CEOs at the Business Roundtable’s meeting in Washington D.C. this week. Stay tuned.

Plus, the first monopoly trial of the internet age kicks off in Washington, the clock is ticking in Detroit, and European companies eye the Big Board.

Buy/Sell

➚ Buy: Computer chips. Arm’s IPO is closing the order book a day early after massive demand and might offer shares for more than the $47-to-$51 per-share range.

➘ Sell: Grocery chips. Instacart, which is hoping to go public as soon as next week, cut its valuation again, to just $8 billion at the middle of its IPO range.

The read-through: The IPO market is open but picky, with little enthusiasm for the 2010s vintage of big-spending, money-losing, share-grabbing startup. (Instacart turned profitable in 2022.)

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Liz Hoffman and Morgan Chalfant

Behind closed doors, what to do about China?

THE SCENE

Rep. Mike Gallagher, the chair of the U.S. House committee on competition with China, said he might widen the panel’s investigation into Wall Street’s ties to China’s military sector and its human-rights abuses, which has so far focused on BlackRock and index provider MSCI.

His comments to Semafor on Tuesday came after two days of mostly private meetings in New York with Wall Street executives wary of drastic limits on U.S. investments in China. The visit included a tabletop exercise on the financial impacts of an invasion of Taiwan and a hearing on the risks of investing in Chinese companies.

“I don’t know if we changed anybody’s mind,” said Gallagher, whose committee has put one industry after another under scrutiny from fast fashion to semiconductors to finance. “But I think those we met with left with a sense that this is an issue they can’t ignore.”

Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital, a venture firm that invests in defense technology and scientific endeavors, organized closed-door sessions meant to help lawmakers and financiers understand each other’s interests “without being knee jerk or reflexive,” he told Semafor.

Few attendees supported a complete decoupling from China, said Wolfe, who cautioned against economic jingoism. “Using a hammer or a bludgeon would be a terrible idea,” he said.

The panel is collecting ideas for an end-of-year report that members hope will include bipartisan recommendations for curtailing the flow of U.S. money into China.

One idea making the rounds — and explicitly proposed this morning by former SEC Chair Jay Clayton — is requiring U.S. companies to disclose how much, and what kind of, business they’re doing in China. He says companies should also share what are essentially their commercial war games, explaining publicly what happens to their business if tensions between the U.S. and China boiled over.

Reuters/Nathan Howard

Reed Albergotti contributed to this report.

LIZ’S VIEW

I was struck by something Gallagher said. “A lot of people here still cling to the theory that financial interdependence is a stabilizing mechanism,” he told Politico of his visit.

The people running Wall Street today grew up in a liberalizing, globalizing world that made them rich. Free trade was good for business — currency swaps, cross-border M&A, letters of credit for boatloads of Hondas bound for the U.S. — so firms grew to meet that demand. The result is that there’s too much financial capacity for a world that’s smaller and more fragmented, so there’s a lot of self-interest baked into the resistance Gallagher’s getting.

I’ve written about this before in the context of carbon emissions, but I think single-issue disclosures are sort of silly. (Actually, so does Clayton, generally.) Last year more than 1,000 companies spent time and shareholder money certifying that, to the extent they use rare minerals, they don’t enrich any African warlords in the process — a worthy aim, but of zero importance to investors and a weird thing for securities regulators to be enforcing.

But the pandemic and the war in Ukraine proved that global footprints are material. The SEC said as much, issuing strongly worded guidance on how to discuss COVID-19 risks and offering companies a handy disclosure checklist for Russian exposure.

Both of those events made companies pay more attention to their global sprawl, in the same way that 2008 spurred big financial firms to build systems to track company-wide exposures to thousands of different markets and scenarios. It now seems insane that there was ever a bank that couldn’t, but before 2008, most had a fuzzy idea at best of their books at any given moment. So forcing companies to confront these issues is good public policy.

But the unstated, hoped-for outcome here is that by measuring exposure to China, we can penalize it and ultimately shrink it. Using SEC disclosures to dictate behavior has the same problems as policy-by-tax-code: It’s messy, usually outlives its usefulness, and makes the end product virtually unintelligible.

“If Congress doesn’t want U.S. investors investing in China, they should legislate it,” Clayton told me. “You can’t expect investors to navigate the shades of gray around foreign policy and national security.”

For the View from Beijing and the rest of the story, read here.

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Evidence

The paper and packaging giant formed by the merger, announced today, of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock will move its primary stock listing from London to New York.

Europe’s biggest companies are increasingly tilted toward the U.S., leading some to wonder whether they might be better off listed there. Dublin-listed cement maker CRH is moving to NYSE later this month, and FanDuel owner Flutter is said to be weighing it.

I asked Alexandre Ricard, CEO of liquor giant Pernod, last week whether he’d consider moving his Paris ticker to the U.S., where a third of both its revenue and shareholders are. Hard non. “We are French,” he said.

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Plug

Our friends at Transacted provide essential coverage of the latest M&A, venture, and fundraising activity. Written by a former private equity investor, Transacted’s deal summaries and analyses help you quickly understand why certain deals happened and what they mean for the buyer, seller, and industry. Sign up for their newsletter here.

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Quotable

“To be a bond king or queen, you need a kingdom.”

— Bill Gross to Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. His target: DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach, another fixed-income giant who is sometimes considered an heir to Gross’ title.

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Watchdogs

The first U.S. monopoly trial of the internet age starts today. Google is accused of using its clout to snuff out rivals, paying Apple, Samsung and others to be the default search engine on their devices.

A key question is how to define the market. The government says it’s search engines. Google says it’s anywhere people go online to find stuff they want — a definition that would sweep in competitors like Amazon and TikTok.

Another note: It’s not illegal to be a monopoly. It’s illegal to use that status to squash upstarts, as a judge ruled in 2000 that Microsoft did when it crushed Netscape by bundling its Internet Explorer program inside Windows. (Google’s regulatory point man in its DOJ fight, Kent Walker, was an in-house lawyer at Netscape at the time and is now on the other side of that argument.)

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What We’re Tracking
Reuters/Rebecca Cook

Detroit auto workers will walk off the job Friday without a new contract. Their union has rejected single-digit percentage raise offers from Ford and General Motors but appears to be relaxing its own wage demands.

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