Flagship

Middle East conflict spirals

Israel vowed revenge on Iran after Tehran launched around 200 missiles at the country, and expanded its operations targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli officials were considering targeting Iranian oil facilities and other strategic sites as part of what they promised would be a “significant retaliation,” Axios reported, while The National wrote that Israeli tanks had crossed into Lebanon, with the country’s army expanding its evacuation call. Global attention has focused on the risks of a full-blown war between Israel and Iran, but Israel’s offensive into Lebanon carries its own risks, Politico noted: An ostensibly limited operation in 1982 originally intended to curb militant attacks from Lebanon ultimately resulted in a nearly 20-year occupation.

Global financial fallout looms

Risks to global economic growth — ranging from tensions in the Middle East to a dockworkers’ strike in the US — mounted. Energy markets have largely bet on crude prices dipping, with OPEC expected to increase output in December and producers from outside the cartel also ramping up their own sales. But growing fears of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, an OPEC member, as well as the potential for disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of global oil flows, have helped drive oil prices up. A US dockworker strike, meanwhile, could also hit the world’s biggest economy: Goldman Sachs projected a 0.2-percentage-point reduction in quarterly GDP growth from a 10-day stoppage.

AI progress speeds up

Artificial intelligence companies bet the technology will start changing our lives in important ways soon. Microsoft’s AI chief said personal AI assistants, “co-pilots” capable of managing diaries and organizing projects, are about a year away, while OpenAI said systems capable of much more human-like interactions will arrive at about the same time. AI is changing scientific research, too: DeepMind and the pharma company BioNTech both announced AI-powered lab tools, while OpenAI GPT models outperformed humans on MRI cancer diagnoses and did better than PhD-holders on standardized science tests. A quantum computer scientist who used to work with OpenAI on safety expressed concern over the speed of change, counseling “humility” over the “magnitude of civilizational transition that’s about to occur.”

France PM promises spending cuts

France’s new prime minister said the country must reduce its “colossal” pile of loans. In his first parliamentary speech, Michel Barnier said France’s national debt — $3.5 trillion, over 110% of GDP — was a “sword of Damocles.” The country already has high taxes, so the deficit reduction will mainly involve spending cuts, though the government will “ask big companies making large profits to contribute.” The veteran conservative was brought in after President Emmanuel Macron’s snap election in June led to no overall control: Barnier’s speech was heckled by leftwing groups, notably when he laid out a stricter immigration policy.

Chinese capitalism drives solar

Chinese overseas investment is booming, driven by its rapidly expanding clean energy sector. Outbound investment jumped 12.5% from already record levels in the first eight months of this year, largely in electric vehicles, battery tech, and renewable energy: Huge investment in China’s domestic industries have created a dominance undeterred by the West’s import restrictions. Washington blames “unfair trade practices” for China’s advances, but that’s “a comforting myth,” reported Bloomberg’s climate columnist: Instead, it is “good old-fashioned capitalism” that allowed Beijing to push ahead, while the US — which until recently dominated solar production — “squandered” its heritage with “myopic corporate leadership, timid financing, oligopolistic complacency and policy chaos.”

South Africa’s newfound optimism

South Africa’s economy is being buoyed by hopes that it’s finally addressing problems in its transport and energy industries. The country’s recent successes — this year the Johannesburg Stock Exchange marked its best third quarter in more than a decade — have also helped dispel fears that the governing coalition, which includes ministers from seven parties, would be burdened by infighting, Semafor Africa reported. Major economic challenges remain, notably in terms of youth unemployment, which surpassed 60% this year. President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, is confident the country is turning a corner: “We are pointing in the right direction and our reforms are starting to gain traction,” he said last week.

Vance shows GOP’s possible future

US vice-presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance faced off in a debate that most observers felt the Republican won, but which will likely have little direct impact on the election. Vance’s “confidence and fluency” stood out, although he dodged questions about whether Donald Trump lost in 2020 and was on the back foot over abortion rights, Edward Luce wrote in the Financial Times. Vice-presidential debates rarely matter — in 1988, Republican Dan Quayle was humiliated, but entered the White House nonetheless. This debate could, however, reveal what the Republican Party will look like after Trump: Vance, at 40, may be the party’s future, Luce wrote, a “tempered and reasonable” voice that “conveyed Trumpism in its palatable form.”

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Argentines face food crisis

A food emergency is spreading in Argentina’s poorest neighborhoods. Despite the country being one of South America’s biggest meat and grain producers, thousands of Argentines are struggling to buy enough food amid a recession that has pushed upwards of 50% of them into poverty. More than a third cannot afford the basic food basket. President Javier Milei’s “economic shock therapy,” which includes cuts to subsidies on which a large share of the population rely, have also contributed to the crisis. “Addressing food insecurity without delay must be the government’s priority,” La Nación’s editorial board wrote.

Semaglutide will change gym culture

Weight-loss drugs are changing gym culture. The rise of GLP-1 drugs, which reduce food cravings and allow easy weight loss, have made pharma companies such as Novo Nordisk very rich, but they also have impacts elsewhere in the economy. For gyms and health clubs, still recovering from the pandemic, those impacts will be “huge but complicated,” the Financial Times reported: Cardio machines, such as treadmills and exercise bikes, were already losing popularity as people turned to strength-training equipment. Weight-loss drugs “will exacerbate the pressure,” as users turn away from exercise for weight control — but studies suggest the drugs can cause muscle loss as well as fat, meaning people will have ever more need for the dumbbells.

The growth of city sheep

A growing number of US cities are using sheep for land management. Nashville, Tennessee, employs a flock of 150 sheep — known as the Chew Crew — to trim vegetation, while cities in California and Georgia are trying something similar. It’s more environmentally sustainable than pesticides, and more entertaining for onlookers than mowers: “The community loves the grazers,” one city planner told the Associated Press. Brush fields are subject to wildfires, according to a wildland specialist, but when trimmed back by grazers, the fire “reacts drastically and drops to the ground [which] gives firefighters a chance.” The Chew Crew’s grazing territory is increasingly full of wildlife compared to the opposite bank, which uses mowers and “looks manicured like a golf course.”

• The party of jailed former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan holds protests calling for his release.
• Japan’s new Nintendo Museum opens in Uji, an hour south of Kyoto.
• Skywatchers gather on the remote Easter Island to witness an annular solar eclipse.

The Russian economy’s forecast growth rate for August. Government data is expected later today. Despite a raft of Western sanctions, which experts thought would cripple the country’s finances, Russia’s economy has held up: Driven largely by a huge spending drive and oil exports to friendly nations including China and India, Russian GDP is forecast to grow nearly 4% this year. However, headwinds remain, with business leaders complaining of labor shortages as tens of thousands of young men are called to the front lines of the country’s war with Ukraine. Inflation is also rising rapidly. “The Russian economy could suffer from structural handicaps,” Le Monde reported.

Sol Gabetta and Bertrand Chamayou perform Felix Mendelssohn’s Works for Cello and Piano. Gramophone says the pair’s recording of this “memorably heartfelt and at times heroic” piece does the German composer proud: “Two exceptional players on top form.” Listen to the recording on Spotify.

• Ex-Amex CEO Ken Chenault is a top candidate for jobs in a Harris administration.
• Dockworkers strike poses political dilemma just before election.
• InfoWars’ victims and enemies consider buying it.