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Oil prices rise but are more risk-resistant, Trump’s and Harris’ economic plans are quantified, and ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 8, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Risk-resilient global markets
  2. Oct. 7 reflections
  3. Trump, Harris budget plans
  4. SE Asia’s cyber gangs
  5. Indian e-scooter spat
  6. Singapore ends horse racing
  7. Fewer construction majors
  8. Donor cells breakthrough
  9. AI for airport gates
  10. Food color market booms

Winston Churchill’s cigar smoke is removed from a foggy Monet riverscape.

1

Oil prices rise in risk-resilient market

Aimee Dilger/Reuters

Oil prices rose further Monday as tensions ratcheted up in the Middle East, but are still lower than they were a year ago, after Hamas attacked Israel. The war has widened since then and Israel is preparing to strike Iran, but oil price increases haven’t yet caused global inflationary problems, as they did after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That’s partly because geopolitical chaos generally has a smaller market impact than many think it will, according to a new Deutsche Bank analysis: “Markets are always grappling with inherent uncertainty.” Gulf nations, meanwhile, have “largely been immune to the turmoil” as their economies grow and development booms, Semafor Gulf editor Mohammed Sergie wrote.

Read more news and insights on the growing influence of the Arabian Peninsula in our newest newsletter, Semafor Gulf. →

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2

Oct. 7 reflections from Israel, Gaza

Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

One year after the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, several notable articles grappled with the trauma of that day, and the devastating conflict that has since unfolded. Wounds still feel fresh at an Israeli kibbutz stormed by Hamas, according to a Washington Post reporter who spent time there. Palestinians are “picking their way through shattered lives in a devastated landscape,” The Wall Street Journal wrote, profiling a new mother of triplets and a Gazan bride-to-be. The Forward’s editor-in-chief urged the Jewish community to “wrestle with complexity, and sit in the discomfort of our broken world,” and The Atlantic explored how Israelis and Palestinians “seek recognition for their humanity” through books about Oct. 7 and the carnage that followed.

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3

Trump economic plan costlier than Harris’

Both Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s economic plans would add to the US’ debt — but Trump would increase the deficit by more than twice as much as Harris. The Republican nominee is projected to pile on $7.5 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according to a nonpartisan budget watchdog, the latest in a string of analyses with similar estimates. Trump has proposed tariff increases that he said would offset most of his tax cuts, though economists largely disagree with that claim. Budget hawks are worried regardless of who wins: The head of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget called on the next president to stop “pandering on everything from taxes to Social Security.”

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4

SE Asia cyber gangs flourish on Telegram

 Indonesia’s cyber crime police holding a press conference in 2018, in front of a row of suspects.
Indonesia’s cyber crime police. Darren Whiteside/Reuters

Encrypted messaging app Telegram has changed the way organized crime networks in Southeast Asia operate, according to a United Nations report. Hacked credit card details and passwords, along with deepfake software, are now openly traded on the app, the UN found, adding that cyber gangs largely based in Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos scammed people and institutions out of $37 billion last year. The findings are the latest in a series of accusations implicating Telegram, whose CEO was recently arrested in France for allegedly allowing criminal activity to flourish on the platform. After the arrest — which led Telegram to agree to share some user data with law enforcement — several extremist groups moved to a new platform, SimpleX Chat, which promises more privacy protections, Wired reported.

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5

Social media spat dents e-scooter shares

Shares of India’s largest e-scooter company fell Monday after the company’s CEO bickered on social media with a prominent comedian. Kunal Kamra criticized Ola Electric’s service centers in a post on X, prompting its founder Bhavish Aggarwal to call him a “failed” performer who should “sit quiet.” Despite its dominance over India’s EV industry, Ola has faced backlash over service, delivery, and safety issues, and the public spat further dents the brand: The company “may be facing its toughest test yet,” the Hindustan Times wrote. Ola only went public in August, and analysts are still generally bullish about its outlook in the growing Indian e-scooter market, where Chinese competitors have struggled to break through, The Economist wrote.

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6

No more horse racing in Singapore

Edgar Su/Reuters

Singapore held its final horse race on Saturday, ending 180 years of the sport to make way for more housing. The government is razing about 300 acres of the Singapore Turf Club to build homes for the island’s burgeoning population, Bloomberg reported. Horse racing has declined in some parts of Asia due to a lack of interest from younger people and post-pandemic financial struggles: Macau also terminated the sport this year. But horse racing has thrived in Hong Kong, where it saw a record turnover of $39 billion in 2022-2023. Thanks in part to its charitable contributions to the public housing sector, the Hong Kong Jockey Club — the city’s top taxpayer — “appears poised to survive for decades,” Nikkei Asia wrote.

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7

China has fewer civil engineering pupils

Tingshu Wang/Reuters

The number of Chinese students studying construction and infrastructure is declining, mirroring the country’s property market slump. Leading Chinese universities have seen a dip in the number of civil engineering majors and some schools are dropping it as a concentration altogether, the South China Morning Post reported, as job offers and wages in the sector have dimmed. The minimum college entrance exam score required to study at top civil engineering schools has also fallen sharply. It’s a reversal of a trend seen over the past several decades, when China put billions toward infrastructure projects; now, property investment has dropped, and demand for new construction has slowed.

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8

Breakthrough donor cells treatment

Three Chinese patients with autoimmune diseases are in remission more than a year after receiving donated transplants of genetically engineered immune cells. Engineered immune cells have been used to treat cancers and autoimmune conditions such as lupus, but until now have used the patients’ own cells. Using donated ones would allow pharmaceutical companies to produce therapies at scale: One donation could be used to treat 100 patients, instead of just one. The three recipients’ symptoms were alleviated, and they tolerated the treatments well, although an immunologist told Nature that there could be relapses or even severe side effects in the future, asking: “Will these patients stay symptom-free for years?

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9

Airlines use AI for gate allocation

Wikimedia Commons

Airlines are turning to artificial intelligence to better allocate departure gates. Deciding which airplane uses which gate is surprisingly complex: With 15 gates and 10 airplanes, “there are more than 570 billion possibilities,” one expert told the BBC. Gate allocations are decided a year in advance but can be changed repeatedly, sometimes up until the last minute. That can create delays, leaving passengers sitting on the tarmac for hours, or lead to cancellations. At one US airport, humans take up to four hours a day allocating gates: A new machine-learning system does it in 10 minutes, shortening taxi times by 20% and saving 1.4 million gallons of fuel a year.

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10

Food coloring market surges

A colorful cake.
Freerange Stock

The food dye market is expanding, partly driven by the rise of cooking content on social media. Sales of edible colorings are projected to reach $6 billion by 2028, up from $4.6 billion last year, Food Dive reported. In an increasingly crowded market, manufacturers are using vibrant colors to attract attention — consumers are often photographing food for Instagram and want it to stand out. The growth of processing techniques, which can remove some of food’s natural color, also boosts the demand for dye. On the other hand, additives like coloring are not always popular with consumers or regulators: On Monday, California became the first US state to ban schools from using certain food dyes in cafeterias.

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Oct. 8:

  • Samsung Electronics reports third-quarter earnings.
  • The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics.
  • HBO releases a new documentary, Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which claims to reveal Bitcoin’s creator.
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Curio
Chartwell National Trust

A foggy Monet riverscape once owned by Winston Churchill is now significantly brighter after conservators removed a layer of grime caused by the British leader’s famous cigars. Charing Cross Bridge is one of 21 London scenes painted by the Impressionist master going on display at the Courtauld Gallery in Monet and London: Views of The Thames, which reunites many of the masterpieces for the first time in 120 years. In preparation, the painting’s layer of airborne dirt caused by cigar smoke and fireplace soot was cleaned, restoring the Thames to its natural yellow-gray haze. “Without the fog, London wouldn’t be a beautiful city,” Monet once said. “Those massive regular blocks become grandiose within that mysterious cloak.”

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