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In today’s edition, we have a scoop on how private-equity firm Stone Point is seeking to buy the bus͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 10, 2023
semafor

Business

Business
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Welcome back to Semafor Business.

Dealmaking is highly sensitive to regulations. Antitrust crackdowns discourage rivals from merging. The JOBS act made it easier for younger and less-profitable companies to go public, so a lot of them did.

But I can’t remember a recent deal as clearly shaped by the winds in Washington as the scoop we’ve got today: Truist, a major regional bank, is in talks to sell one of its three divisions for about $10 billion.

Eight months ago, Truist CEO Bill Rogers sounded bullish on the business, which is one of the world’s biggest insurance brokerages. Now, after four midsized banks failed and others teetered (to be clear, Truist was not one of them) and regulators signaled tougher rules are coming, he’s talking publicly about needing more capital and is in sell mode.

Plus, fighting in Israel and Gaza hasn’t moved markets much, unless you’re holding levered, short-dated oil futures. But investors are watching for signs of regional escalation.

Buy/Sell
Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

➚ BUY: Burbank. Disney rose 2% as activist Nelson Peltz returned for the sequel, this time with a $2.5 billion stake and ready for a fight.

➘ SELL: Banks. Analysts expect an average drop of 11% in net income at the country’s biggest banks when they start reporting third-quarter earnings next week. Blame slowing loan growth (more on that below).

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What We’re Tracking

The fighting in Israel and Gaza is rippling through financial markets. Oil rose, but not much, and is still below September’s high. As WSJ’s James Mackintosh notes, moves in U.S. stock and bond markets were smaller than after last week’s jobs report.

Israel’s central bank stepped in to prop up a sliding shekel, promising to sell up to $30 billion of foreign currencies, about 15% of its holdings, and closed bank branches near Gaza.

With Hamas and Iran — whose role, if any, in the attacks remains the subject of much speculation — already under tight sanctions, “There’s not much room left to go,” Jason Prince, former chief counsel at OFAC, the arm of the U.S. Treasury that oversees sanctions, told Semafor.

But he added that western banks may get overly skittish about financing NGOs providing humanitarian aid to the region. (A 2021 sanctions review by the Biden administration cited “unintended consequences” as a weakness of existing policies.)

“Treasury would need to give financial institutions comfort that they can and should be banking these types of organizations,” he said.

Meanwhile, airlines have canceled hundreds of flights in and out of Ben Gurion airport, which remains open.

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Liz Hoffman

A $10 billion deal shows banks’ new reality

THE SCOOP

Regional bank Truist is in talks to sell its giant insurance brokerage to private-equity firm Stone Point for about $10 billion, an early consequence of new, tighter regulations meant to avoid another run of bank failures.

Stone Point earlier this year bought 20% of the business and is now negotiating to acquire the rest, people familiar with the matter said.

Truist Insurance Holdings says it’s the seventh-largest insurance broker in the world. The stake sale in February, which included money from Emirati sovereign fund Mubadala, valued it at $14.5 billion. It’s not clear whether the current deal would include other investors.

Talks are ongoing, the people said, and a deal may hinge on Stone Point’s ability to scrounge up enough debt in a market that’s been skittish on buyout loans.

A spokesman for Truist declined to comment. Stone Point did not respond to requests for comment.

Reuters/Graeme Sloan

KNOW MORE

Stone Point, which managed $45 billion at the end of last year, has carved out a niche taking unwanted divisions off of financial firms’ hands. It bought TIAA’s bank last year and recently partnered with insurers AIG and Axis Capital in separate deals to free up capital.

LIZ’S VIEW

Regulators didn’t put this deal together over a weekend, but their fingerprints are all over it. In February, Truist sounded keen to hold onto its 80% stake. Then four regional banks failed and now new rules are coming for Truist and its peers.

Regulators are likely to raise banks’ required ratio of loss-absorbing capital to assets, and Truist was cutting it close in its latest Fed stress test. “We’re in a build-capital mode,” CEO Bill Rogers said at an industry conference in May. “We’re going to be in build mode until we have more information, more certainty” about regulators’ plans.

The insurance operation is an obvious place to get it. Rogers said last month that Truist’s stake was tying up 2 percentage points of capital and hinted at a sale. As of June 30, Truist’s all-important ratio was 9.6%, versus a minimum that rose to 7.4% this month and may rise further yet.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Truist might regret parting with a business that churns out 25% margins and never gets anyone hauled in front of Congress. Banks prize steady, fee-based businesses, and so do regulators and investors. Truist’s living will, its plan for an orderly wind-down in a crisis, involves selling its insurance arm for cash.

Offloading it now will leave Truist with just two business lines — consumer banking and commercial banking — where scale has favored giants like JPMorgan and Bank of America.

NOTABLE

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Quotable

“Enron and Bernie Madoff...had two sets of books. We don’t even have one.”

— FTX trustee John Ray, to Freakonomics’ Stephen Dubner

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Evidence

Country Garden, one of China’s biggest developers, said it can’t make payments on its roughly $190 billion pile of debt. Sales of new homes have fallen sharply, despite government moves to reduce down payments and incentivize first-time buyers.

Property developers are an early casualty of China’s slowing growth and debt reckoning. Keep an eye on local governments, which have borrowed heavily to jumpstart a slowing economy, much of it in off-balance-sheet vehicles that Pimco estimates carry $8 trillion in debt and are struggling to keep up with interest payments.

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Hot On Semafor
  • Israel’s mounting war on Hamas poses risks for the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine.
  • Some U.S. lawmakers are calling for more restrictions on seafood imports from China after an investigation exposed human rights abuses throughout the country’s fishing industry.
  • Trump’s team is quietly preparing to go on offense against RFK Jr. as internal campaign polling suggests an expected third party bid could hurt Trump more than Biden.
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