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Israeli strikes in Beirut kill 22, the ECB and Fed are expected to part ways over rate cuts, and the͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 11, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Beirut strikes kill 22
  2. ECB, Fed paths diverge
  3. China stimulus expected
  4. US-China Latam race
  5. Milton conspiracy theories
  6. Azerbaijan crackdown
  7. Nobel Peace Prize awarded
  8. African migrant curbs
  9. Race-blind lung testing
  10. WNBA’s fashion stars

The Cameroonian president’s apparently still ongoing rule in numbers, and recommending a book about the craft of performance.

1

Airstrikes kill 22 in Beirut

A photo showing the devastation of an Israeli strike on Beirut.
Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters

Israeli airstrikes on central Beirut killed 22 people in the deadliest attack on the city so far in the year-long conflict. Refugees from southern Lebanon had fled to the area, Al Jazeera reported, and at least one family was among the dead. Hezbollah said the strikes unsuccessfully targeted one of its top officials. Israel has successfully targeted others, assassinating the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah last month. The Israeli prime minister recently said “Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement” were killed too. But its operation has come at huge cost to the Lebanese people, upwards of a million of whom have been displaced. The Beirut attack took place with no warning, the BBC reported, while Israel has not commented.

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2

Fed, ECB separate

A chart showing the central bank interest rates for the US, the UK, the EU, and Japan

The US and European central banks’ rate-cutting paths looked set to diverge, with the American economy appearing more buoyant than expected and Europe’s drawing concern. US inflation and jobs data that came in above analysts’ forecasts spurred traders to raise expectations of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged at its next meeting, though most still project a 0.25-percentage-point reduction. Recent reports showing slowing growth and faster-than-expected disinflation in the eurozone, meanwhile, suggest the European Central Bank will accelerate its pace of interest rate cuts. The shifting paths have huge implications for global markets, likely strengthening the dollar against the euro, and for finance ministries worldwide, many of which borrow in dollars and euros to attract risk-averse Western investors.

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3

China eyes further stimulus

A chart showing the share of global GDP from China, the US, and the EU

China is expected to outline renewed efforts to bolster its economy. A majority of investors surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the finance ministry would unveil more than $250 billion in additional fiscal stimulus in a briefing scheduled for Saturday, and Chinese officials are set to outline support for private companies on Monday. Beijing also published a draft law to promote the private sector, though as Bill Bishop noted in Sinocism, proposed requirements that companies “adhere to the socialist system with Chinese characteristics” underlined how private business “means something different in the PRC.” China will also likely focus stimulus on technology and building self-sufficiency, another expert noted in the Financial Times, which “is cogent as a national strategy, but unfriendly to financial investors.”

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4

Latam in US-China crosshairs

A map showing Latin America’s biggest export markets

Mexico’s economy minister said his country would take Washington’s side in potential trade battles with Beijing. Both China and the US have in recent years ratcheted up their push for wider influence across Latin America, deploying massive investment programs. Brazil, the region’s biggest economy, now appears on the verge of joining Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, attracted by the potential economic gains, Dialogue Earth reported. US officials argue some of the Chinese infrastructure could be leveraged for military uses. “I really believe that economic security and national security go hand in hand here… and we have got to work both of them together very, very quickly,” the head of the US Southern Command said.

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5

Milton exposes conspiracy theories

A photo showing the aftermath of Hurricane Milton
Marco Bello/Reuters

Misinformation and falsehoods over Hurricane Milton sparked political uproar in the US. The storm has caused devastation in Florida, killing more than a dozen people and leaving around 2.5 million without electricity. Beyond its human toll and economic impact, officials say it has showcased the consequences of increasingly bizarre weather-related conspiracy theories — claiming, for example, that hurricanes were devised to clear land for lithium mining — which can complicate disaster-preparedness efforts. The misinformation has put Republicans in a bind, The Washington Post reported, forcing them to choose between challenging the falsehoods or avoiding criticism from ex-President Donald Trump, who has pushed some of the claims. US President Joe Biden was less reticent, urging Trump to “get a life, man.”

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6

Azerbaijan rights crackdown

A chart showing the freedom index scores for several countries including Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is cracking down on dissent weeks before it plays host to the COP29 global climate summit, rights groups said. Criticism of Baku has grown in recent weeks, with US lawmakers accusing the country of holding political prisoners and carrying out ethnic cleansing in its recent conflict with Armenia. This week, Human Rights Watch and Freedom Now said at least 30 people — journalists, human-rights and environmental activists, union leaders, and lawyers — have been detained in a campaign of intensifying repression. The controversy threatens to cast a shadow over the climate talks, which begin on Nov. 11, and are set to focus on efforts to increase the amount of finance available for the energy transition globally.

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7

Japan anti-nuclear group wins Nobel

A photo of Terumi Tanaka, secretary general of Nihon Hidankyo.
Terumi Tanaka, secretary general of Nihon Hidankyo. Issei Kato/Reuters.

A Japanese anti-nuclear campaign group won the Nobel Peace Prize. Formed of survivors of the 1945 atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Nihon Hidankyo was lauded for its “efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again.” The World War II use of atomic weapons on Japan received renewed political significance this year: Nagasaki refused to invite Israel to commemorations marking the city being bombed, leading to several Western envoys withdrawing from the event. Atomic-bomb survivors, known as hibakusha, have also criticized Japan’s own government for what they see as Tokyo’s growing militarization even as successive prime ministers have pledged to work toward a nuclear-free world.

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Mixed Signals
A graphic with a map of the Middle East and the text "media bias" written on it.

On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals from Semafor Media, Ben and Nayeema take on the critique of bias in the media — a conversation that always seems timely, but especially so right now, weeks away from a US election and with an expanding conflict in the Middle East. To help make sense of what we see as media bias and the moral questions that journalists have to grapple with every day, they bring on James Bennet, who has been at the center of the thorny conversation around bias and the Middle East since his tenure as the Jerusalem Bureau Chief at The New York Times. He continued to be at the fulcrum of this discourse when he was forced to resign as the Times editorial page editor during a heated moment at the publication in 2020.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. →

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8

Spain tries to curb irregular migration

A line graph showing the difference between Europe’s and Africa’s median age forecasts

Spain asked the European Union’s border security agency to patrol African waters in a bid to curb a recent surge in undocumented migration to the country. According to experts, European countries — whose populations are among the world’s oldest — will increasingly rely on foreign-born workers to maintain their living standards and pay the region’s bulging pensions. Nonetheless anti-immigration policies have taken hold across much of Europe, threatening the continent’s economic prospects. “At a time of growing demographic imbalances, the difficult issue of immigration calls for responses other than each country improvising and going it alone,” Le Monde’s editorial board wrote.

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9

Doctors won’t ask race on lung tests

A photo of a doctor taking notes.
Creative Commons

Physicians in the US are no longer asking patients their race when doing lung function tests. What counted as a normal score was different for Black or Asian patients than it was for white or Hispanic, but under recent guidelines laboratories will adopt a race-neutral approach. Black people have on average smaller lungs than white people and score lower on the tests: The new algorithm will make Black people more likely to be eligible for disability benefits but less likely to be eligible for certain occupations, and vice versa for white people. One clinician told Harvard Public Health, though, that treating patients as individuals would have some unambiguous benefits: Not all patients fit neatly into racial categories.

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10

WNBA’s growing impact

A photo of JuJu Watkins preparing to shoot from the free-throw line.
JuJu Watkins. Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY Sports via Reuters.

A US women’s college basketball star signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Nike. JuJu Watkins’ contract extension spotlights the growing interest in the women’s game: Until recently, only three WNBA players had their own sneakers, but three others — A’ja Wilson and rookies Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark — have recently signed deals, indicating the growing status of women’s basketball players as fashion icons, The Business of Fashion reported. There are still plenty of challenges, though, with one expert telling Sportico that companies “are making shoes fit for the male foot [and] labeling them unisex,” which sports scientists worry could contribute to injuries among top sportswomen.

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Flagging
  • Cyprus hosts the 11th Summit of the Southern EU Countries.
  • Lithuanians go to the polls on Sunday.
  • ATTACK on TITAN: The Musical, based on a best-selling manga series, premieres in New York.
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Semafor Stat
18,001

The number of days that Cameroonian President Paul Biya has ruled the country. Biya, 91, has not been seen for days, sparking speculation that Africa’s longest-serving leader may have died. Long periods of rule are not uncommon in the continent: Africa is home to four of the world’s 10 longest-ruling heads of state, with some having held their posts for more than four decades.

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Semafor Recommends
An image depicting the cover of "The Performer"

The Performer by Richard Sennett. The veteran sociologist’s new book looks at performance not just on the stage but in politics, society, and art: It is, writes the actor Simon Callow in The New York Review of Books, a repudiation of the idea that acting and performance is “somehow inherently false.” Despite flaws, the book is “never less than sharp and subtle.” Buy The Performer from your local bookstore.

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