Net Zero

1. The ‘age of electricity’
2. Cheaper used EVs
3. Small elections, big fallout
4. Milton’s high costs
5. Sanctions aren’t working

Repealing the IRA will cost US companies jobs, and delaying the EV transition will cost automakers money.

The ‘age of electricity’

China is leading a new “age of electricity,” the International Energy Agency said, as fossil fuel demand looks set to peak by decade-end.

The global energy watchdog’s annual report said clean energy is being added at “an unprecedented rate,” faster than the growth in energy demand and enough to push fossil fuels into decline. China accounted for 60% of new renewable energy in 2023, it said, and its solar generation alone is on course to exceed the US’ total electricity demand by the early 2030s. The IEA noted, though, that uncertainty remained high due to wars involving oil-producing Russia and the Middle East. India wants to challenge China’s clean-energy dominance: New Delhi is planning a $109 billion investment in the electricity grid to incorporate new renewable sources. But overall, the pace of the buildout of low-carbon energy needs to double every year between now and 2035 for countries to meet their climate targets.

Cheaper used EVs

Prices for used EVs in the US are falling below the average price for used gasoline cars, cramping dealers’ profits and the resale outlook for new EV buyers.

The drop in used EV prices follows cuts to new EV prices that dealers have made over the last year to prop up flagging sales. The decision this year by rental car agency Hertz to dump much of its Tesla fleet also depressed used EV prices. The trend has left some EV owners owning more on their car loans than the car is worth, The Wall Street Journal reported. But it’s good news for prospective buyers, at a time when price has become the most important criteria on the EV market. At the Paris Auto Show this week, the usual focus on glamorous luxury models has been replaced by automakers trying to outdo each other on budget offerings.

The US’ most important climate elections this year are local

One of the US’ most important elections for climate policy this year is in the suburban foothills of Tucson, Arizona.

The state lags behind its peers on clean energy jobs and also faces escalating challenges from heat waves and water shortages, which one Democratic state senate candidate told Semafor is the fault of “some level of inattention, some level of incompetence, and some level of malfeasance” by the longstanding Republican leadership in the legislature. His campaign is drawing support from climate activists who see an opportunity to unlock a raft of policy goals related to clean energy and environmental conservation — not just for the benefit of Arizonans, but as a backstop for broader US climate goals in the event Republicans sweep national races this November.

With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck-and-neck for the White House, and a good chance that Republicans could win both houses of Congress, local races like District 17 of Arizona’s state senate are an increasingly important venue for the future of US climate policy. State lawmakers wield considerable influence over how states set clean energy targets and whether they seek to access federal funding for climate initiatives. But climate activist groups have historically underinvested in supporting pro-climate candidates in local races — limited financial and human resources have usually been seen as better invested in high-profile national races. That’s starting to change as the collective stakes of local races become more clear, said Caroline Spears, executive director of the advocacy group Climate Cabinet, which supports local candidates.

And much of the attention is focused on District 17, where a tight race is underway between Vince Leach, a Republican who served in the legislature from 2015 until losing a primary race in 2022 and is now fighting to get back in, and John McLean, a Democrat new to politics who worked most of his career in defense engineering.

Milton’s high costs

Estimated payouts from private insurers to cover damages from Hurricane Milton, making it one of the most expensive storms since Hurricane Ian in 2022 — in part because of the escalating impacts of climate change, and in part because Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. The figure does not include payouts from the federal flood insurance program. An industry survey this week from the insurance firm AXA put climate change as the industry’s biggest risk for the third year in a row. But as they face higher risks, more insurers are investing in the decarbonization efforts of high-emissions companies.

Sanctions aren’t working

Western sanctions on Russia’s energy sector aren’t working, as up to 70% of Russian oil exports have been able to travel on the growing fleet of “shadow” tankers, a report by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute found. As a result, oil income to the Kremlin, a vital source of finance for the war against Ukraine, has hardly changed. The US and Europe have not been able to keep up with monitoring the shadow fleet, in part dragging their feet because of a fear that interfering too aggressively with Russia’s exports will cause price spikes for Western consumers. The continuance of revenue for the Kremlin is just one problem; another is that “shadow” tankers are often old and poorly maintained, posing a risk of spills and catastrophic damage to marine ecosystems. Meanwhile, European countries like Czechia that are large importers of Russian oil have been slow to pivot to other sources, effectively financing the war effort against Ukraine even as they publicly condemn it.

On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals from Semafor Media, Ben and Nayeema take on the critique of bias in the media — a conversation that always seems timely, but especially so right now, weeks away from a US election and with an expanding conflict in the Middle East. To help make sense of what we see as media bias and the moral questions that journalists have to grapple with every day, they bring on James Bennet, who has been at the center of the thorny conversation around bias and the Middle East since his tenure as the Jerusalem Bureau Chief at The New York Times. He continued to be at the fulcrum of this discourse when he was forced to resign as the Times editorial page editor during a heated moment at the publication in 2020.

New Energy

• China’s Dongfang Electric Corp. announced it has built the first model of what is by far the world’s largest wind turbine, with blades more than 1,000 feet long.
• Despite significant challenges in financing and supply chains, some countries in the Global South are adopting renewables much faster than the US and Europe, a report finds.

Fossil Fuels

• Oil and gas industry groups are bankrolling a shadowy misinformation campaign against solar projects in rural Ohio, with the help of the local newspaper.
• Flaring from upstream oil and gas production is on the rise globally, according to Rystad Energy, despite promises from the industry to crack down on a relatively low-hanging emissions fruit.

Finance

• Catastrophe bonds, which are designed to help developing countries cope with the costs of climate disasters, aren’t working as well as their supporters hoped.

Tech

• Google placed an order for half a dozen small nuclear reactors from the startup Kairos Power, a new dimension of its scramble to source low-carbon power for data centers.

Politics & Policy

• In a survey of more than 900 US businesses, 21% said they would need to lay workers off if the Inflation Reduction Act were repealed.

EVs

• The EU is sticking with a plan to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035 despite a backlash from automakers.
• On the other hand, Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares warned that delaying the EV transition will only backfire financially for automakers, as it will prolong the amount of time they need to operate two parallel manufacturing lines for EVs and gasoline vehicles.

• Kamala Harris accused of plagiarism in 2009 book.
• Inside Condé Nast’s Gaza war.
• Microsoft Azure CTO: US data centers will soon hit size limits.