Flagship

Biden trip cements global gulf

US President Joe Biden was in Berlin to meet with the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK, a swansong trip for the outgoing American leader. The talks further demonstrate the growing geopolitical gulf between Western allies of Ukraine and supporters of Moscow’s invasion of the country: Kyiv and Seoul have in recent days said North Korea is sending soldiers to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine, while the US for the first time imposed sanctions on Chinese companies for supplying Moscow with complete weapons systems. Biden hopes to cement long-term support for Kyiv, but faces a difficult task: His host, Germany’s chancellor, has rejected key tenets of Ukraine’s “victory plan,” Die Zeit noted.

“When we announced on January 1 of 2022 that we planned to launch a new global news organization, it sounded a bit crazy — even to us,” Semafor’s co-founders Justin Smith and Ben Smith wrote this morning, on our second anniversary. “We’re proud to say that, even amid global conflicts and harsh domestic politics, we’ve held our ground on the core issue of political polarization. We’ve earned the trust of sophisticated people in leadership roles around the world by focusing on what you need to know — not just what you want to hear. We’ve separated news from opinion in our Semaform, brought room for civil disagreement across our products, and pulled in views from all over the world.”

Thank you from the team at Flagship for reading our work and attending our events, for your feedback, and of course your tips. It’s been an exciting two years and we’re just getting started!

China’s Japanized economy

China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since the country lifted pandemic-era restrictions, highlighting the risks of a flailing property sector. Though data suggested authorities’ annual growth targets may be out of reach, there were bright spots: Overall expansion beat forecasts, as did retail sales and industrial production figures. “Despite the multitude of challenges, China’s economy is not incurable as some would suggest,” an expert at the Economist Intelligence Unit said. However longer-term problems — including a mammoth debt burden and an aging population — persist, with Barclays analysts arguing that China’s economy has “become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s,” referencing Tokyo as a symbol of economic stasis.

McKinsey’s China links under scrutiny

US lawmakers called for an investigation into McKinsey over its simultaneous work with China and the US military. Republican members of Congress said the management consultancy failed to disclose potential conflicts of interest in working for geopolitical rivals. McKinsey’s China work is, ironically, becoming more difficult: It is cutting back on government-linked clients in the country and reducing its Chinese staff by 500, partly because of US scrutiny but also because of growing security concerns and Chinese businesses turning to local options. It’s just one of the challenges facing the firm, which is reportedly close to agreeing a $500 million settlement over a criminal investigation for its work with the OxyContin manufacturer Purdue Pharma.

The fallout from Sinwar’s death

Israel’s killing of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar offers the possibility of a truce in Gaza, analysts said, but is unlikely to arrest a widening regional conflict. Sinwar is the latest in a number of top Hamas and Hezbollah commanders to be killed by Israeli forces in recent weeks. His death represents “a massive victory” for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has shown little sign of relenting in his military campaign in Gaza, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said. And Sinwar’s killing probably won’t end Israel’s operations in Lebanon or reduce the risk that it will strike Iran, an Atlantic Council analyst noted: “It is far from the end of the book.”

US charges Indian official over plot

The US charged an Indian official with plotting an assassination in New York. Federal prosecutors said Vikash Yadav — reportedly a former member of India’s RAW intelligence agency — paid a hitman to murder a US-Canadian member of a Sikh separatist movement. Yadav was allegedly also involved in the assassination of another Sikh separatist in Vancouver, Canada, last year. The move increases tensions between New Delhi and the West: Canada expelled six Indian diplomats this week over the extrajudicial killing with Ottawa saying there were “credible allegations” that New Delhi was involved. India has reciprocated and railed against Canada. “Will the strong words used by [New Delhi] to denounce Canada… now be directed at the US?” a prominent Indian journalist asked.

Kenya deputy president removed

Kenya’s senate voted to remove the country’s deputy president — the culmination of a fallout with President William Ruto — in an unprecedented political move. Rigathi Gachagua, a businessman who helped bring Ruto to office, was found guilty of a “gross violation” of Kenya’s constitution by practicing sectarian politics and threatening judges, but was cleared of accusations of corruption. His once strong relationship with Ruto eroded during mass protests this year over unpopular tax increases that the government eventually withdrew. Senators went so far as to vote on his removal while he was in hospital, suffering from chest pains, showing “their determination to oust” him, the BBC reported.

New ‘debt-for-nature’ swap

El Salvador agreed a so-called “debt-for-nature” swap, in which nations restructure their borrowing to focus on environmental protection. The country secured a $1 billion loan from JPMorgan — partly backed by Washington — to pay off outstanding debt, on the condition that it spent the $350 million saved on river restoration. The deal follows a similar agreement between Gabon and Bank of America last year in which the African nation pledged to divert savings to ocean conservation. The El Salvador loan also has political significance: The US has been sharply critical of the human rights fallout of the Latin American country’s crackdown on gang violence, but Washington’s support for the JPMorgan deal suggests it is willing to look past those concerns.

White House National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard will join the Global Finance session at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Oct. 24 to discuss how C-suites, finance ministers, and central bank governors are adjusting their economic playbooks as interest rates ease, and what new risks may be looming.

Guangzhou’s dengue spike

Guangzhou in southern China saw a 73% spike in dengue fever cases in a single week. The mosquito-borne disease is on the rise worldwide: The World Health Organization said that cases have roughly doubled each year since 2021, driven by international travel, poor sanitation, and mosquitoes’ range expanding thanks to warmer global temperatures. More than 13 million dengue cases and 8,500 deaths have been recorded worldwide so far this year. The wider Guangdong province has also seen an increase, and declared a state of high alert, noting that the number of mosquito hotspots in the region have grown. Chinese customs authorities also ordered more cleaning of goods and surveillance of travelers to reduce importations of the disease.

Prison experiment scientist dies

Philip Zimbardo, the psychologist behind the notorious Stanford Prison Experiment, died aged 91. The 1971 research divided participants into “guards” and “inmates,” and found the former rapidly started abusing the latter, ostensibly showing how power corrupts. It was hugely influential — the study remains in undergrad textbooks and is cited in movies and TV shows. But it was later shown that Zimbardo coached participants to get the results he wanted, and the experiment was “a fraud,” as Vox reported in 2018. It’s one of many classic psychological findings that have not withstood scrutiny, but cleaning up such research is hard: One study into the benefits of open science was recently retracted for not living up to its own ideals.

Games take over from pubs

The growth of “competitive socializing” is changing the after-work drink. In London, ever more punters frequent venues built around various different games — darts, virtual clay-pigeon shooting, escape rooms, ax-throwing, et cetera. The use of such venues has gone up by 40% in the UK since 2018, driven by the increasing number of non-drinkers, and companies’ unwillingness to be seen to encourage a culture of drinking. The pandemic shutting down lots of large department stores also left landlords needing to fill a lot of empty units, the Financial Times reported. Sixes Social Cricket, in which players hit balls launched by a virtual bowler, was launched in 2021 and now has 17 locations, including one in Trinidad and Tobago.

• G7 defense ministers meet in Naples.
• Former US President Barack Obama campaigns for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in Arizona.
• Designers showcase their creations at São Paulo Fashion Week.

The number of oil spills known to have been caused by Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers since 2021. Politico published an investigation into Moscow’s over 600 illicit tankers, which found that the “aging, poorly maintained ships sailing in defiance of Western sanctions” were wreaking environmental havoc, and because they are largely unregulated and often uninsured, there were no consequences for their owners or governments. Spills were detected from the UK to Thailand to Mexico, while oil money keeps flowing into Russia’s coffers. The West is trying to crack down on the fleet: London announced new, more stringent sanctions, barring 24 oil tankers and four LNG vessels from British ports or maritime services.

The Contemporary African Kitchen by Alexander Smalls. The chef and restaurateur — and previously a Grammy- and Tony-award winning singer — has compiled 120 recipes from across the continent, taking “readers on a soaring journey” with combinations that “are soaked in history yet contemporary in flair,” Condé Nast Traveler said. Buy it from your local bookstore.