Flagship

Indonesia swears in hands-on president

Ex-military general Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s president Sunday, as activists warned of democratic backsliding in the world’s fourth most populous nation. The 73-year-old, who served under Indonesia’s brutal former dictator Suharto, will likely take a hands-on and personality-driven approach to foreign policy, analysts said, which could make his positions unpredictable, especially toward China. Prabowo may also “act on his darker tendencies to see the world as a Hobbesian contest, where national power must derive from military power, leading to a tendency to overstate perceived threats,” an expert argued in the South China Morning Post. He has sought to soften his image in recent years, appearing in viral dance videos and with his cat.

Fighting intensifies after Sinwar’s death

An Israeli airstrike in Gaza Sunday killed dozens, local officials said, as violence in the region escalates in the days after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Despite initial optimism that Sinwar’s death might spark fresh ceasefire talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has no interest in a political settlement” to end the war with Hamas, Haaretz’s Alon Pinkas wrote. Meanwhile, Hamas fighters are likely to only “redouble their efforts,” a Foreign Policy columnist argued. “A diplomatic détente is underway in the Mideast, but not the one envisioned by the Israeli prime minister,” The New York Times wrote: Disagreements over Palestinian statehood are pushing Saudi Arabia “further away than ever” from normalizing ties with Israel, and Riyadh is instead moving closer to Iran.

Trump would threaten China with tariffs

If elected US president again, Donald Trump would use the threat of severe tariffs — or even the prospect of shutting down trade — to deter China from invading Taiwan, he said. Trump told The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board he “wouldn’t have to” use military force against China because Xi Jinping “respects me and he knows I’m f— crazy.” Trump has frequently said world leaders would be afraid to counter him, and that his protectionist economic stance would signal strength. He has proposed tariffs on all imports, and even higher duties for Chinese goods — pledges that shouldn’t be discounted as election-year bluster, experts said: Trump would need the money from tariffs to pay for his tax proposals, although research shows such high duties would raise prices.

Chinese battery firm gets ‘more European’

A Chinese battery giant is taking pains to “localize” its operations in Germany, as European officials heighten their scrutiny of Beijing’s clean-tech imports. CATL, the world’s largest electric-vehicle battery company, opened its first overseas plant in rural Germany in 2022, and is now dramatically pruning its Chinese staff and introducing more German workplace norms: “The company’s become more and more local, or European, than Chinese,” CATL’s HR coordinator in Germany told Semafor. The localization drive comes amid uncertainty over the future of Chinese green tech companies in the European Union: While individual member states have generally welcomed Chinese battery investments, analysts say slowing domestic EV demand and the prospect of heightened regulatory scrutiny from Brussels could threaten the sector’s future.

US faces ‘economic storm,’ Nobelist warns

An impending “economic storm” will transform the American workforce — and the US is unprepared, one winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in economics argued. Three forces are driving the change: The rise of artificial intelligence, a rapidly aging population, and the end of an era of globalization that began in the 1990s, MIT professor Daron Acemoglu wrote in The New York Times. The transformation may be a boon or a bust for workers, depending on whether the US invests in training people to do jobs that complement greater automation. Yet so far, neither presidential candidate has an adequate plan, Acemoglu wrote: “Our decisions over the next five to 10 years will determine which path we take.”

China sets sights on Venus

China released its plan to become “a world power in space science” by 2050, including returning samples of Venus’ atmosphere to Earth. China recently became the first nation to return samples from the far side of the moon to Earth, and if it were to cache a wisp of Venus’ clouds, that too would likely be a world first. It also aims to establish a research station on the moon and a space telescope to launch in 2026, Science Magazine reported. While Chinese officials stressed the importance of international cooperation in announcing the plan, US space agency NASA has expressed concern that China could threaten American interests in space, with the agency’s chief describing the competition as a new Cold War-style “space race.”

Small Samoa hosts big summit

Commonwealth leaders are gathering for their biennial summit in the Pacific Islands, a first in the group’s 54-year history. So many people have descended on Samoa, population 220,000, that the country has deployed a cruise ship to house those who can’t get a hotel. With the UK’s King Charles and Prime Minister Keir Starmer attending, some countries plan to call for reparations over climate change and slavery. (London has ruled out a formal apology or reparations for the latter.) The summit also marks a big moment for tiny Samoa, described as “the Switzerland of the Pacific,” by a non-militarization expert: It’s one of 11 Pacific countries without a military, and has a long history of neutrality and peaceful dispute resolution.

President and CEO of CTBC Bank Noor Menai will join the Global Finance session at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Oct. 24 to discuss how C-suites, finance ministers, and central bank governors are adjusting their economic playbooks as interest rates ease, and what new risks may be looming.

RSVP to this session and the World Economy Summit here.

Hurricane Oscar heads for Cuba

Hurricane Oscar is predicted to bring up to 15 inches of rain to Cuba, as the island grapples with major blackouts. The storm threatens to compound Cuba’s power crisis and leave millions in the dark for longer after its aging grid and fuel shortages cut electricity to the entire island last week. Subsequent internet outages have also likely hampered storm preparations, Reuters reported, with meteorologists warning the Category 1 storm could intensify, and even trigger a “humanitarian crisis.” Oscar’s rapid acceleration was unexpected, the US National Hurricane Center said: Scientists link the increasing frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes to climate change, which has warmed ocean waters.

France’s Science Po revives entrance exam

Elite French university Sciences Po will reintroduce its entrance exam by 2026, having scrapped it in 2021 over criticism that it was discriminatory. New university director Luis Vassy told French outlet Les Echos the test won’t mirror the old format, and will be “socially non-discriminatory,” although the details remain unclear. The U-turn follows similar decisions by several top US colleges, including MIT and Yale. Many university administrators express concern over the politics of such exams, The New York Times wrote, yet recent studies suggest standardized testing could predict educational success, and so could open doors for some students. “Just getting straight A’s is not enough information for us to know whether the students are going to succeed or not,” MIT’s dean of admissions said.

Can volcanoes be tapped for energy?

Drilling into an active volcano could unlock new geothermal energy potential and help predict eruptions, scientists suggest. Iceland’s Krafla volcano has a magma chamber barely a mile below the surface, and as part of a new project, scientists will drill two holes just above the chamber, where temperatures reach beyond 600°C (1,100°F). Such high temperatures means one well there should provide 10 times more energy than a standard geothermal well; if the project scientists can show it is as effective as they believe, it could be copied in other volcanic areas, such as New Zealand, Mexico, and Japan, where magma is near the surface. The project will also enable scientists to closely monitor the magma and link its measurements to surface seismograph readings to better predict the volcano’s behavior.

Oct. 21:

• Germany’s president hosts Iceland’s president in Berlin.
• Hyundai Motor India stock begins trading in Mumbai following a record-breaking IPO.
• Japanese actor Ken Watanabe celebrates his 65th birthday.

The gothic grandeur of Germany’s Cologne Cathedral has become a lasting social media movement. Online trends tend to come and go, but the cathedral — which took 600 years to build and opened in 1880 — has become one of “TikTok’s biggest stars,” Garbage Day wrote. The most-liked post on the platform in July was a video of the church, and clips are still proliferating in recent weeks. The trend puzzled Artnet News’ national art critic, who mused: “Part of me wants to say that the Cathedral’s aura of history and sacredness must feel refreshing in the frenetic TikTok world.” Yet he also questioned whether people are drawn to the building less because of its history and more because it echoes a dark fantasy aesthetic popular in certain video games and movies.

• The US’ most important climate elections this fall are local.
• Why Democrats’ purest filibuster reformer is playing the long game.
• South Korea’s next election sets up a classic revenge story.