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Donald Trump’s huge rally, Kamala Harris’ missing boss, and the dollar’s entrenched dominance.͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 28, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Trump’s NYC mega-rally
  2. Harris avoids Biden
  3. The dollar’s dominance
  4. Europe’s Georgia struggle
  5. Uruguay’s civil election
  6. The risks of Iran’s weakness
  7. Sudan on UN’s agenda
  8. China’s civil service allure
  9. Macron exposed by Strava
  10. Farewell floppies in SF

The London Review of Substacks, and a recommendation for a movie about death that is ‘on the side of life.’

1

Trump threatens mass deportations

A chart showing the changing voting patterns of Hispanic voters from 2016

Former US President Donald Trump said he would launch “the largest deportation operation in American history” while speaking at a rally that critics said was marked by racist and vulgar language. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle hit back at what they called the rally’s anti-Latino rhetoric, including a speech by a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” The rally could have political implications, with more than 500,000 Puerto Ricans living in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Still, both the Republicans and the Democrats said the rally was a win for their side, with the former praising the turnout, and the latter highlighting the “crude and offensive remarks” of the speakers, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reported.

For more on the presidential election, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Harris distances herself from Biden

Beyoncé and US Vice President Kamala Harris embrace as they attend a campaign rally
Marco Bello/Reuters

US Vice President Kamala Harris has enlisted a number of A-list supporters at her events, from the former “First Couple” Barack and Michelle Obama to music superstar Beyoncé — but the current president of the United States has been notably absent. The Democrat is neck-and-neck with her Republican rival, ex-President Donald Trump, and has held a number of major rallies, but while Joe Biden is keen to help, Harris has yet to enlist him: Axios said that the Harris campaign was wary of being further tied to his unpopular presidency. That distancing would likely continue were she to win, with Harris reportedly planning to bring in an all-new White House staff.

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3

The dollar’s dominance

A chart showing the total value of US banknotes in circulation

The dollar looks set to both strengthen its value and cement its dominance in the coming months, according to analysts. The US currency is gaining against a basket of rivals, driven largely by a “macro divergence story,” with the American economy maintaining its strength as Europe and China slow, as well as bets that Donald Trump will enact policies that will help the dollar if he wins next week’s election, ING economists said. Remarkably, the dollar has mostly retained its global role despite rising US political uncertainty and debt levels, with investors seeking the relative certainty and liquidity of American markets amid global turmoil, a prominent economist noted in Foreign Affairs: “Almost nothing could change this any time soon.”

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4

Europe’s Georgia challenge

Supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party wave Georgian flags and the party's flags from cars.
Zurab Javakhadze/Reuters

Georgia’s disputed election — in which a pro-Russia party won following what observers said was widespread fraud — showcases a number of challenges facing the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who holds the Council of the European Union’s rotating presidency, is headed to Tbilisi to congratulate and support the victorious candidate in the face of the criticism, the latest example of the Hungarian leader being at odds with his EU counterparts: He has also sparked anger in the bloc for “freelancing on ‘peace missions’” to Ukraine, Russia, and China, Politico noted. Ultimately, the Georgian election pits Europe and the West against Moscow: “This sort of power politics makes EU officials uncomfortable.”

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5

Uruguay’s civil election

A map of Democracy Index scores across Latin America

Uruguay’s presidential election will head to a runoff, after a remarkably civilized” race that represented an exception to recent democratic backsliding across Latin America. In the latest sign of the erosion of regional norms, former Bolivian President Evo Morales accused the government in La Paz of attempting to kill him after a car he was traveling in was shot 14 times. Last month, prosecutors in Bolivia issued an arrest warrant for Morales — who is running in next year’s presidential election — over allegations that he ran a sex trafficking ring. Across Latin America, just 40% of respondents to a recent poll said they were satisfied with the state of democracy in their country, down from almost 60% a decade ago.

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6

Tactical gains, strategic worries

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack.
Gil Cohen-Magen/Reuters

Israel’s attack on Iranian defense facilities highlighted Tehran’s limited military capabilities — and may risk the country accelerating its pursuit of nuclear weapons, analysts said. Iran’s supreme leader made muted comments following the strikes, saying they “should not be magnified or belittled,” remarkable from someone who has frequently called for Israel’s destruction. The assault “highlighted the significant gaps between the two sides,” The Wall Street Journal noted. Yet “lurking behind the satisfaction with the tactical gains lies a longer-term worry,” The New York Times reported: That Israel’s dominance may drive Iran to push harder for an atomic weapon. The attack came as Egypt proposed a two-day ceasefire in Gaza, another Israeli battlefield, with a Hamas official voicing openness to a truce.

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7

UN meets on Sudan crisis

A chart showing the number of internally displaced people in Sudan between 2009 and 2023.

​​The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. At least 10 million people have been displaced since the onset of the war 18 months ago, while more than half of the country’s population is at risk of hunger. The head of the UN’s mission in Rwanda during the country’s 1994 genocide called on the Security Council to act swiftly to stop the rampant, ethnically motivated violence, and the widespread human rights abuses in Sudan. “The UN made a tragic mistake in waiting too long to respond to the genocide in Rwanda,” Roméo Dallaire wrote. “It must not do so again.

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8

China’s public sector allure

A chart showing China's rising youth unemployment rate

A surging number of applications for government jobs in China underlines worries over the country’s economy. More than 3.4 million people will sit China’s national public service exam, or guokao, competing for 39,700 vacancies, a ratio of about 86 to 1. The exams, which will take place on Dec. 1, have become more popular in the past decade — about 1.4 million candidates competed for 22,000 positions in 2014, the South China Morning Post noted — despite reports of delayed wage payments for civil servants and an erosion of benefits. The “iron rice bowl” jobs nevertheless remain attractive, with China’s economy struggling to return to the bumper growth of past years and youth unemployment running at about 17%.

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9

Macron’s Strava leak

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Louise Delmotte/Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron’s security guards are inadvertently revealing his movements via the popular fitness app Strava, Le Monde reported. Members of the GSPR, the French equivalent of the US Secret Service, publish their runs on the platform publicly, “unknowingly sharing their locations online,” the outlet said. Le Monde was able to identify the names and addresses of a dozen of the French president’s bodyguards, and tracked jogging routes they used on reconnaissance trips to scout hotels Macron would stay at. The report is the latest in which sensitive location information has been compiled via Strava: In 2018, military analysts reviewing public data released by the app were able to identify US military bases abroad.

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10

San Francisco joins 21st century

A view of San Francisco’s skyline.
Wikimedia Commons

San Francisco’s public transit system will spend $212 million to finally move its computer system away from the 5.25-inch floppy disk. The US city began using the disks — outdated even then — on its light rail service in 1998. Plans were put in place in 2018 for a floppy-free future by 2028, but the COVID-19 pandemic delayed work, and it is now expected to run until 2030. Last week the city approved a vaguely 21st-century control system, used to run Japan’s bullet train, WIRED reported. It’s far from the only tech the metro system needs to update: Its cabling is equally old and fragile, and has “less bandwidth than an old AOL dialup modem.”

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Flagging
  • Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.
  • The 9th Regional Forum of the Union for the Mediterranean opens in Barcelona.
  • Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates turns 69.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Link in bio

There are lots of amazing companies in biosciences, doing remarkable, ambitious things. If you work in biology, write the scientists Abhishaike Mahajan and Eryney Marrogi, you’ll notice that the founders of biotech companies are usually pursuing “crazy pie-in-the-sky mission [like] curing aging or making de-novo proteins,” something involving huge intellectual input but with a potentially even bigger market payoff. The people involved want to make fundamental impacts on the field and on the world at large. That’s great — but, Mahajan and Marrogi argue on Owl Posting, it would be nice if there were more smart people working on boring stuff too.

In other fields, founders are usually just as smart and hardworking, but they have often chosen areas that aren’t so grandiose. Stripe, for instance: “Stripe is a fundamentally boring business on the surface — you’re making it easier for people to send money to each other.” No doubt Patrick Collison is brilliant and could have done something more exciting-sounding. But payment processing not only made him a billionaire, it also democratized online payments and changed the world for the better in a small, but appreciable, way. Biology startups could aim to do something similar: Slightly improve the drug-discovery pipeline, say. It might not sound so spectacular, but it would be useful.

Chaining reaction

The UK was a pioneer in nuclear research: The first time humans split the atom was in Britain, in 1932. But now, it is the most expensive place in the world to build a nuclear power station. Hinkley Point C, currently under construction — running several years late and nearly double its original budget — will cost six times as much per megawatt produced as an equivalent in South Korea, and double that of reactors of the same EDF design in France and Finland. The economist Sam Dumitriu, in Notes on Growth, asks why.

There are many causes. The overly complex permitting system is one: EDF had to produce a 30,000-page environmental impact assessment and thousands of small changes to the design, rendering it impossible to build a fleet of similar reactors and learn by doing. And regulations are, by design, crippling: The regulator’s own starting position is that safety measures’ costs can outweigh benefits tenfold without being disproportionate. These extra costs, says Dumitriu, make nuclear — a low-carbon, reliable, and very safe power source — uncompetitive, forcing the country to rely on dirty, unsafe fossil fuels.

Dam straight

The Royal Air Force’s 617 Squadron, the so-called Dam Busters, was a remarkable outfit. It flew heavy bombers across Germany at treetop height in 1943 and dropped the experimental “bouncing bombs” that wrecked three industrial dams, but their later missions were equally spectacular. As the mathematician Oliver Johnson writes, their combination of cutting-edge weapons and extraordinary physical bravery crippled the V2 rocket system, helped deceive the Nazis about the whereabouts of the D-Day landings, and sank the fearsome Tirpitz battleship.

For much of the war they were led by the impossibly heroic Leonard Cheshire, “a fearsome warrior in wartime and a remarkable humanitarian in peacetime,” who flew more than 100 bombing missions — on average, only 8% of crews survived to 50 missions — and after the war took in a dying man to live with him, which then led him to found what is now a major disability charity. The squadron was full of brilliant, daring oddballs, Johnson notes, and had a “freedom to operate outside conventional standards” which was and remains rare, but perhaps should be a lesson: “It was largely a case of recruiting great people, giving them what they needed, and then mostly staying out of their way.”

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Semafor Recommends
A graphic showing the poster for Pedro Almodóvar’s film The Room Next Door.

The Room Next Door. Pedro Almodóvar’s feature-length English-language debut opened in Spain and the UK this month to rave reviews, after winning the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. “The movie is all about death,” Variety’s chief film critic wrote, “yet in the unblinking honesty with which it confronts that subject, it’s powerfully on the side of life.” Watch the trailer on YouTube.

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Semafor Spotlight
Jeff Bezos at a fashion show in January.
Jeff Bezos at a fashion show in January. (Reuters/Alessandro Garofalo)

The Washington Post’s competitors moved quickly to fill the space it vacated when it shifted from being a bulwark against former US President Donald Trump to canceling a planned endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, Semafor’s Max Tani wrote.

For more scoops and moves in the media world, subscribe to Semafor’s Media newsletter. →

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