Flagship

Global worries grow over US election

North Korea said it launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, a move experts said was aimed at grabbing US attention ahead of next week’s presidential election. Pyongyang said the ICBM stayed in the air for longer than any previous test, a sign of both its increased range and its ability to carry heavier payloads. The announcement was one of a number of saber-rattling moves by US adversaries in the runup to Tuesday’s vote: Moscow this week carried out nuclear weapons exercises. Global uncertainty is growing over the election, the consequences of which will be felt the world over, with the price of gold — traditionally a haven asset in times of turmoil — rising to record levels.

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Mexico’s migration crackdown

Mexico’s crackdown on migration is playing a key role ahead of the US presidential election. Under pressure from Washington, Mexican authorities deployed troops to restrict the number of migrants reaching the border, helping defuse a crisis that had made undocumented immigration one of the most salient issues for US voters earlier this year. However new polling by Gallup shows that the desire to migrate remains strong, with many still wanting to reach the US. Although a lot of migrants move to escape a dire economic situation or political repression, climate change will soon be the biggest motive: According to a 2020 estimate, it could displace as many as 1.2 billion people globally by mid-century.

Economist endorses Harris

The Economist backed Vice President Kamala Harris in the US election. The UK-based publication’s endorsement contrasts with decisions by influential US newspapers — notably The Washington Post — to decline to endorse either major candidate, citing concerns over the appearance of bias. A number of studies point to growing polarization in the US: The New York Times recently reported on how Republicans and Democrats are increasingly segregating themselves into neighborhoods with political allies, a broader context that newspaper proprietors have used to frame their decisions. Yet the non-endorsements have had huge business implications, with The Post losing around 200,000 subscribers as a result. In any case, The Economist’s editor told Semafor, “being independent and being opinionated” can be compatible.

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Good Chinese economic news

Chinese factory activity expanded for the first time in six months, rare good news for an economy that has largely fallen short of expectations this year. Beijing is expected to outline fiscal stimulus next week, following a meeting of its rubber-stamp legislature, aiming to goose economic growth that risks falling short of the country’s 5% target. Yet it faces both domestic and international constraints. At home, the scale of existing local-government debt curbs its room for maneuver. Abroad, the prospect of ex-President Donald Trump returning to office in US elections next week and launching a trade war against China may be driving officials in Beijing to hoard cash: “Until recently… stimulus was entirely a domestic affair,” a Bloomberg columnist wrote.

China’s growing space ambitions

China’s space program gave the green light to an unmanned, reusable Space-Shuttle-like vehicle. Haolong will transport cargo to and from the Tiangong space station. Beijing’s space ambitions are gathering pace: Tiangong also saw the arrival of three taikonauts, including the country’s first female space engineer, this week. They are the youngest Chinese crew to launch — a message, the BBC said, that “this is a new generation of space travellers and an investment in the country’s future.” China’s inaugural space launch came 25 years ago, but it has since landed a spacecraft on Mars, achieved a world first by returning rock samples from the far side of the moon, and now plans to land humans on the lunar surface.

Tech up, oil down

Data, the so-called “new oil,” is outperforming the old, literal oil. Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet all reported better-than-expected results this week — Google’s parent company saw revenue jump 15% quarter-on-quarter — sending the Nasdaq to a record high. Meanwhile, BP saw its lowest third-quarter profits in four years, albeit also outperforming low expectations, as oil prices dropped. The contrasting directions of travel represent investors’ bets on how the economy is going: That there will be ever more demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, and the energy-intensive data centers that support them; and that the electricity demand such a shift triggers will increasingly be powered by non-fossil-fuel sources.

KKR’s power-demand bet

Two finance heavyweights pledged to invest $50 billion in data-center and electricity-generation projects, a reflection of fast-growing demand for power to undergird artificial intelligence developments. Electricity demand in the US and much of the rich world has long been flat, with population and economic growth balanced by improving efficiency, but the announcement by KKR and Energy Capital Partners is the latest in a raft of deals in which financial powerhouses bet on that trend shifting: Brookfield, a Canadian investment giant, has a $15 billion deal with Microsoft to provide it power globally, for example. It is also a sign of the growing role privately held financial companies — KKR is one of the world’s biggest — are playing in the energy transition.

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Mexico justices threaten to quit

​​Eight of Mexico’s 11 Supreme Court justices said they would resign rather than stand for election next year in protest over a controversial judicial overhaul. Last month, Mexico approved laws requiring all judges be elected by popular vote, which analysts believe could lead to the ruling party or other groups — including powerful drug cartels — controlling much of the judiciary. Although the Supreme Court attempted to review the changes, the ruling party last week approved a separate law that shields the new measure from legal challenges. The government’s bid to control all three branches of government has sparked fears of a rapid erosion of the rule of law, stalling vital foreign investment as economic growth slows.

South Africa outlines challenges

South Africa’s government unveiled grim budget forecasts, downgrading its projections for economic growth. Pretoria will cut spending in a bid to reduce debt and narrow budget deficits, South Africa’s Mail & Guardian reported. The latest estimates demonstrate the scale of the challenge facing the country, whose poor public infrastructure — particularly its electricity shortfalls — has curtailed growth and thus tax intake. Following elections in May, centrist and business-friendly parties were included for the first time in a coalition government, buoying hopes that South Africa could regain economic momentum. Changes are underway, Bloomberg reported, with electricity provision notably improving.

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India’s single malts gather admirers

Indian single malt whiskies are increasingly holding their own against those from more traditional sources. India is the world’s biggest whiskey market, but domestic products have until recently been blends, which are cheaper and easier to make, rather than coming from a single distillery. But that is changing: One Indian restaurant in New York said that “my [Indian-made] Indri is selling more than my Macallan,” a famous, easy-drinking Scotch. Indian whiskies — which have won several awards at international competitions — often have “distinctly Indian flavors,” such as cardamom or ginger, Bloomberg said, and Flagship can confirm that a glass of Longitude 77 goes down very nicely.

• Turkey’s president meets his Senegalese counterpart for talks in Ankara.
• Colombia’s central bank board votes on the benchmark interest rate.
• Millions of people around the world celebrate the festival of Diwali.

The estimated economic impact created by Japanese baseball juggernaut Shohei Ohtani, who yesterday won his first World Series title after his Los Angeles Dodgers beat the New York Yankees. Ohtani’s exceedingly rare ability to bat and pitch at an elite level — a combination last seen more than 100 years ago — has made him the face of the sport. His soaring popularity has helped boost Los Angeles’ economy, with the number of Japanese tourists visiting the city up more than 91% since he signed for the Dodgers. Meanwhile across the Pacific Ocean, almost 16 million people tuned in to watch him play in the series. “With Shohei Ohtani there don’t seem to be any limits,” a Nikkei Asia columnist wrote.

Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe, by Daniel Hoffman. With Halloween here it’s time to remember one of the great pioneers of horror fiction, Edgar Allen Poe. In Five Books, the Poe scholar Shawn Rosenheim says Hoffman’s exploration of Poe’s work is “playful and experimental.” Buy Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe Poe from your local bookstore, and also, if you’ve read the word “Poe” so many times now that it’s lost all meaning, you’re not alone. Poe.

Elon Musk’s employees may share his visions of colonizing Mars, building electric robotaxis, implanting brain chips, and digging holes. But they don’t share his politics, Semafor’s Rachyl Jones reported, revealing that workers at his three biggest companies — X, Tesla, and SpaceX — have overwhelmingly donated to Democratic candidates.

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