Flagship

US economy outperforms peers

New data out today is expected to show jobs growth slowing in the US, crystallizing a debate over economic stewardship that has dominated the presidential election. Americans largely trust ex-President Donald Trump more on the issue — consistently the top priority among voters — and 62% of respondents to a recent Wall Street Journal survey said the economy was “not so good” or “poor.” But a recent New York Times poll indicated Vice President Kamala Harris was closing the gap with her rival. Regardless, whoever wins Tuesday’s election will inherit “an economy that is putting its peers to shame,” The Journal’s chief economics commentator noted: US growth isn’t just outpacing developed-country expansion in overall terms, but on a variety of deeper metrics.

Trump ramps up fraud claims

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump ramped up unfounded allegations of voter fraud in the swing state of Pennsylvania ahead of Tuesday’s election. The ex-president has repeatedly claimed “cheating” was underway, while his running mate cited reports of Democrats impersonating election workers, claims that were refuted by the state’s top election official, a Republican. According to The Wall Street Journal, efforts to “portray chaos in Pennsylvania” have involved foreign actors — US officials have linked recent hoaxed viral footage to Russia — as well as Republican supporters with wide reach online: “While administrative hiccups or local complaints always arise in elections, the difference now in Pennsylvania is that they are being spread globally by influencers with millions of followers.”

— For more on the US election, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. Sign up here.

Botswana president concedes

Botswana’s president conceded defeat following parliamentary elections in which his party — which has ruled the country since independence in 1966 — came fourth. Mokgweetsi Masisi’s concession before final results were even announced pointed to the growing strength of democratic norms in one of Africa’s most prosperous and best-governed nations, challenging a trend in sub-Saharan Africa of what a democracy-tracking think tank characterized as “autocratizers.” Masisi’s government was undone by slowing economic growth, thanks to falling demand for Botswana’s diamonds, and unemployment of around 27%. “We got it wrong big time in the eyes of the people,” he acknowledged.

— For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly Africa newsletter. Sign up here.

Spanish flood death toll rises

At least 158 people were killed in floods in eastern Spain this week. The area around Valencia was hit hardest after a year’s worth of rain fell in eight hours, leading to torrents of water that trapped people in garages and homes. A government phone alert came only after flooding had already begun, and many hours after state meteorological services had warned of extreme rainfall: “Those people wouldn’t have died if they had been warned in time,” one resident told Reuters. European officials said the flooding, the worst in Spain’s history, was a warning of Europe’s unpreparedness for climate change. Greece, Belgium, and Germany have also seen devastating floods in recent years, Politico noted.

Flailing environment efforts

Global negotiations to reverse biodiversity loss have made little progress, and upcoming climate talks are unlikely to fare better, analysts said. With COP16 talks in Colombia due to conclude today, “an increasing number of indicators show that governments are not on track” to fulfill commitments to protect nature, The Guardian reported, falling short of targets on protecting land, cutting environmentally damaging subsidies, and increasing funding for biodiversity. Developing countries should also lower their expectations for this month’s COP29 climate talks, the head of the 2021 summit told Semafor, warning that the chance of increasing targets tenfold for financing for poorer nations for clean energy and impact adaptation efforts was near-zero and the effort could even backfire.

— For the latest on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. Sign up here.

Seoul considers arming Ukraine

South Korea is considering supplying Ukraine with weapons in response to its northern neighbor deploying troops to Russia. Around 8,000 North Korean troops have arrived, according to US intelligence, and Seoul plans to send a delegation to Ukraine to monitor Pyongyang’s forces. The Financial Times reported that it may go further and offer lethal aid, which, given South Korea’s formidable defense manufacturing capacity, “could turn the tide on the entire conflict,” one analyst said. The growing involvement of East Asian nations points to the widening of the war into an increasingly global conflict, as Moscow makes slow but steady battlefield progress — with plans afoot to launch a new offensive in the Donbas region.

Boeing revises wage deal

US plane manufacturer Boeing improved its wage offer for over 30,000 striking workers in a bid to resolve a crisis that has cost the company billions of dollars. Boeing’s woes — including manufacturing problems that have sparked a government investigation — have pushed its stock down more than 40% this year. Planemakers elsewhere have pounced on the opportunity: Chinese manufacturer COMAC announced plans to expand overseas as it tries to break into the global passenger jet market. Meanwhile in Brazil, Embraer announced a new financing round from Citi to boost the development of a flying car project that could compete with Boeing’s prototype.

In a noisy election cycle, it’s hard to find signals — even of the mixed variety. Today on Mixed Signals from Semafor Media, Ben and Nayeema sit down with reporters David Weigel and Max Tani to parse what you’re not seeing, from the “insane” TV ads at a Pittsburgh Steelers game and the print ads in an Arizona nail salon to an unpublished Washington Post endorsement quashed by Jeff Bezos. One of these things may decide the election, and another could shape the blame game that follows.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now.

Mexican state bans Halloween costumes

The Mexican state of Sinaloa banned residents from using masks or carrying plastic guns during Halloween to avoid being confused with criminals amid a battle for control of the territory. Sinaloa has been wracked by months of fighting between factions of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel following the arrest of one of its leaders in July. Although authorities have deployed hundreds of soldiers to pacify the state, their efforts have largely failed, with Sinaloans being forced to stay indoors for days on end to avoid being caught in crossfire. “What is happening in Culiacán is not normal,” a resident told El País. “The violence is out of control.”

Obesity drugs reduce bariatric surgery

Rates of bariatric surgery to treat obesity dropped 25% in a year in the US as the use of weight-loss drugs doubled, research suggested. The impact on bariatric surgery is a reminder that even before the rise of Ozempic and similar products, people were willing to undergo significant risks to their health to reduce obesity, and that the drugs — although not risk-free — are safer than major surgery. A separate recent study found that semaglutide treatment reduced knee pain in overweight patients with osteoarthritis, which is worsened by high body weight.

Angus Steakhouse meme trickery

Londoners are leaving ever more positive reviews of a ubiquitous and much-mocked tourist-trap restaurant in order to keep influencers away from the city’s actually good eateries. “Angus steakhouse used to be my favourite underground spot, now it’s rammed with tourists smfh,” one Reddit post sighed. The move is a response to a viral post saying one restaurant (no, we’re not going to tell you which) had the city’s best steak sandwich, creating 30-minute lines keeping locals out. It may be working — one Redditor posted a picture of an enormous queue they said was for an Angus — although Flagship thinks they may be on to us: “Would it be like saying Olive Garden has the best Pasta in NYC?”

• North Korea and Russia conclude a joint exhibition of IT products in Pyongyang.
• The EU’s foreign policy chief visits Tokyo for talks with Japan’s foreign minister.
• People around the world celebrate All Saints’ Day.

The estimated depth, in miles, of a subsurface ocean that once existed on Uranus’ moon Miranda. The venerable Voyager 1 spacecraft passed the tiny world in 1986, taking a few photos on its way to the edge of the solar system. Reanalysis of those images found evidence of geological activity which suggested that it must once have had liquid water under its icy surface — and likely still does, despite its vast distance from the sun, making it one of the most interesting places to look for potential alien life.

The Mortal and Immortal Life of the Girl from Milan by Domenico Starnone, translated by Oonagh Stransky. The London Review of Books says this novel of childhood and love is “seemingly simple,” but has “remarkable psychological depths and infinite degrees of enchantment.” Starnone is “Italy’s greatest contemporary novelist… whose books are sharp as tacks, quick to read, and impossible to forget.” Buy The Mortal and Immortal Life of the Girl from Milan from your local bookstore.

A Senegalese investor raised one of Africa’s largest women-led funds for startups, even as African businesses face a funding crunch. But as Janngo Capital’s founder Fatoumata Ba told Semafor’s Alexander Onukwue, “Fundraising in Africa as an emerging female fund manager — Francophone, in her thirties — it’s not for the faint of heart.”