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A sprint to the finish in the US election, the post-Trump future of Trumpism, and farewell to a tita͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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cloudy La Paz
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November 4, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Sprint to the finish in US
  2. The future of Trumpism
  3. G7’s political uncertainty
  4. Pro-West win in Moldova
  5. Hunger strike in La Paz
  6. Weakened Iran defiant
  7. SAfrica’s illegal miners
  8. Seeing into opaque China
  9. RIP Quincy Jones
  10. Rolls-Royce’s first EV

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending a new album about homecoming and migration by a Japanese instrumentalist.

1

US election’s final sprint

A headshot of Kamala Harris next to one of Donald Trump.
Marco Bello, Jeenah Moon/File Photos/Reuters

The US presidential election entered its final sprint, with the candidates traversing swing states in an effort to win over stray voters in a tightly contested poll. News outlets largely characterized the final moments of campaigning as a sharp contrast between ex-President Donald Trump’s “dark message,” as The Wall Street Journal put it, and what CNN described as Vice President Kamala Harris’ “optimism and aspiration.” Opinion polls have largely pegged the contest as a dead heat — some last-minute ones have offered hope for Harris — but as the campaigns have wound down, “in message and demeanor,” The New York Times said, they “could not have been more different.”

— For more on the presidential election, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. Sign up here.

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2

Trumpism will outlast Trump

A photo of supporters of Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump attend a rally
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Regardless of who wins tomorrow’s US election, “Trumpism” will persist, analysts argued. Ex-President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration, pro-trade-barrier stances and culture-war rhetoric are “here to stay,” because he has shown his party that they are a “wickedly effective path to power,” a Bloomberg columnist argued. A Financial Times writer agreed that Trump had been “a titanic success” by his own lights, having created a new protectionist anti-trade consensus. Airmail’s co-editors noted that Trump was born in the first year of the “baby boom” while his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, was born in the last. “They are bookends of their generation,” Graydon Carter and Alessandra Stanley said, and together represent the boomers’ twin impulses of narcissism and idealism.

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3

G7 uncertainty on the rise

A chart comparing the satisfaction with the state of democracy in G7 countries

Virtually all G7 countries now face significant political uncertainty. Beyond the US’ knife-edge election, Germany’s “traffic-light” coalition government is verging on collapse with crisis talks set for this week; Canada’s prime minister is languishing in the polls and has faced calls from within his party to step aside; Japan’s ruling parties decisively lost recent elections, throwing the country “into unchartered territory”; France’s new prime minister needed far-right support to survive a no-confidence vote and is grappling with a hefty budget deficit; and traders sold British bonds and the pound over concerns the country is borrowing too much. The lone possible exception: Italy’s prime minister, who is successfully pushing her country’s policies to the right while growing her appeal abroad.

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4

Moldova reelects Sandu

A chart showing the steep decline in the share of Moldova’s exports going to Russia

Moldova’s pro-Western president won a second term in office despite alleged “massive interference” from Russia. Maia Sandu promised to govern for all Moldovans after she won 55% of the vote in a runoff with her opponent, who favored closer ties to Russia. She had warned of “thieves” trying to steal the election: Her security chief said Moscow had organized buses and flights to bring voters to polling stations, while bomb scares disrupted voting both in Moldova and at overseas voting centers in the UK and Germany. Moldova was a Soviet republic for 51 years, governed from Moscow, and has a significant Russian-speaking population. A week earlier, Russia was accused of meddling in Georgia’s election too: The Kremlin denied both allegations.

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5

Morales on hunger strike

A photo of former President Evo Morales on his second day of hunger strike
Claudia Morales/Reuters

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales said he would remain on hunger strike until the country’s leader agreed to a political dialogue. Morales and his former protege President Luis Arce have been at odds over control of the governing party since Morales launched a reelection bid that was later declared unconstitutional. Last week, Morales supporters took control of a military post, taking more than 200 people hostage. They have also set up roadblocks across the country, paralyzing swaths of the economy. Meanwhile prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant against the ex-president, accusing him of running a child sex-trafficking scheme. “Morales doesn’t care about the country, he cares about himself,” a senior government minister told The Associated Press.

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6

Iran defiant, but constrained

A photo of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking during a meeting with students in Tehran
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via REUTERS

Iran was reportedly readying its military retaliation to Israeli strikes on the country. Tehran’s supreme leader vowed a “crushing response” to the Oct. 26 attacks that hammered the country’s air defenses, while The Wall Street Journal said Iranian diplomats warned Arab counterparts that any strikes would employ more powerful warheads than previous ones. Yet Tehran’s options are limited: US and Israeli officials assess that last month’s attacks left Iran “badly exposed,” The Journal said. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Israel’s other military front appeared to worsen, with the UN again warning of the prospect of famine in Gaza as Israel officially said it would no longer recognize the UN’s Palestinian aid agency.

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7

South Africa arrests illegal miners

A chart showing the rapid increase in the youth unemployment rate in South Africa.

South Africa arrested hundreds of illegal miners in one of the country’s many abandoned mines. Authorities blocked deliveries of food and water to the miners, forcing them to surface after experiencing starvation and dehydration, the BBC reported. The number of illegal miners — known as zama zamas, Zulu for “those who try their luck” — has ballooned in recent years despite the huge risks involved. With their country struggling with slow growth and a youth unemployment rate of almost 60%, thousands of young South Africans have few better prospects than plunging hundreds of meters into the mines. “When you go down, you never know if you’ll come back up,” a zama zama told AFP.

— For more news from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. Sign up here.

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8

China’s hurdles

A chart comparing the median age forecasts for several countries, of which China is the highest.

An array of non-traditional indicators point to the depth of China’s demographic and economic challenges. An aging population and plummeting birth rate are major concerns, and society is having to adapt: The country aims to install 2 million elevators in apartment blocks nationwide for residents who are increasingly unable to maneuver stairs, while tens of thousands of kindergartens have scaled back or closed, CNBC reported, with some pivoting to cater to senior citizens. A slowing economy, meanwhile, has hammered the luxury sector — the opening of one under-construction LVMH megastore is delayed, and Hermès is making it easier to buy its iconic Birkin bags, Bloomberg reported — whereas sales of pianos, long a must-have for China’s middle class, have plummeted.

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9

Quincy Jones, music giant, dies

A headshot of Quincy Jones
Denis Balibouse/Reuters

The music industry titan Quincy Jones died aged 91. Jones, a composer and producer who worked with Michael Jackson, Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles, and many others, won 28 Grammy awards over a 75-year career, and was named one of the most influential jazz musicians of the 20th century by Time magazine. He wrote movie soundtracks — notably that for The Color Purple, which he also convinced Steven Spielberg to direct for just $40,000 — and was key to bringing together some of the US’ most popular artists to create the charity single We Are the World to raise money for the 1985 Ethiopian famine. He was also the first African American nominated for a Best Score Oscar.

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10

Rolls-Royce’s ‘sublime’ first EV

A photo of the Rolls-Royce Spectre
Damian B Oh/Wikimedia Commons

Rolls-Royce unveiled its first electric vehicle. The Spectre, priced at a minimum $420,000, is the first step in the luxury car company’s plan to become all-electric by 2030. The Verge’s reviewer was impressed: “It feels like the previous 120 years have been leading up to this moment,” he said, noting that Rolls-Royces have always been quiet, despite their massive engines, but with electric drivetrains the company “can finally stop overengineering ye olde internal combustion to make it smooth and silent.” The Spectre is not silent, but makes a subtle artificial noise like that when “an omniscient, all-powerful alien force swoops through the clouds in a sci-fi movie… the result is genuinely sublime.”

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Flagging
  • The EU foreign policy chief holds talks with South Korea’s foreign minister in Seoul over North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia.
  • France is expected to present its energy production targets for 2030 and 2035 including for renewable and nuclear energy.
  • The winner of the Prix Goncourt, France’s top literary prize, will be announced.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Agree to disagree

The word “argument” has two distinct but easily confused meanings. One is debate, disagreement, dialogue; the other is a screaming match. One is productive — you can learn, persuade, further one another’s knowledge and understanding — and the other is, usually, not. On his Substack Ranging Widely, the writer David Epstein interviews Amanda Ripley, a journalist who has written a book about how you can stop the one descending into the other.

There are simple conversational techniques, Ripley says, which can help avoid the worst. A good one: She found herself at a dinner when someone said something she profoundly disagreed with, and “I literally said: ’Oh, wow! That’s so interesting, because I feel the exact opposite way.’ And if you can say it in that tone of genuine delight and curiosity, while acknowledging straight-up that you totally disagree, it’s like this portal opens up. You’ve reframed disagreement to be something really intriguing and compelling and safe. It’s almost the same tone you would use to say: ‘Oh my God, I went to that same high school!’”

Fertile ground

The public discourse about the ongoing, global collapse in fertility rates is “seriously weird,” the social scientist Alice Evans notes. That is, she thinks, because parts of the conservative movement want to use the fact of declining fertility as a reason to return to the patriarchal gender roles they prefer, and because parts of the progressive movement don’t want to admit it’s happening because they think it would give ammunition to the aforementioned conservatives. But it is happening, with “major implications for economic growth and social stability,” Evans writes on The Great Gender Divergence.

Efforts, especially in the hardest-hit countries in East Asia, to boost reproduction have been a “total flop.” She argues that trying to get people to have more children “puts the cart before the horse” — the problem is upstream; more and more people are remaining single, perhaps because people can afford to be choosy and because the stigma around singledom has declined. As a result, “relationship formation increasingly depends on love,” she says, “yet compatibility can prove elusive. Men and women who are shy, introverted, boring, aggressive, violent, manipulative, deceitful, unfaithful, or ideologically polarised may ultimately call it quits.”

Rich pickings

Every subculture has its own ways of establishing status and pecking orders. That’s true among the ultra-rich, of course. The Gen-Z chronicler Steph, who writes all in lowercase for some reason, says that when she began hanging around with the very wealthy, “my new, well-off peers didn’t flaunt their wealth with designer logos or private jet selfies,” but instead “dropped subtle signals during dinner-table debates about which aman resort has the best amenities or whether soho house was becoming too plebeian.”

But navigating that is a minefield for anyone — what if they order the wrong kind of dessert at Casa Cipriani? — so, luckily, help is at hand. There is “an entire ecosystem of rich kid meme pages” that, on the surface, mocks the trust fund tourists, satirizing archetypes like “the miu miu-adorned social climber and the ‘struggling’ bushwick artist,” but subtly also tells other rich kids how they should behave. The meme-sharing also lets people brag about their wealth without showing off their Rolexes: “you can repost an ironic ‘rich guys in ibiza be like’ meme, and signal to the world that you do, in fact, know what rich guys in ibiza be like.”

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An illustration with Fujita’s album

Migratory by Masayoshi Fujita. The Japanese vibraphonist and marimba player has returned to his home country after 13 years in Berlin, and his new album “has location as its beating heart,” The Japan Times wrote, with Fujita using the birds he sees from his mountainside home as inspiration for the music. The result “has evoked a migration — a monumental one at that.” Listen to Migratory on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Washington is quietly discussing backup plans should American chip maker Intel’s financial situation continue to deteriorate, as first reported by Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Reed Albergotti. In the high-stakes chips race between the US and China, “the question is whether the government — hampered by divisive politics — can produce the next Intel,” Albergotti noted.

Subscribe here for Semafor’s tech newsletter for smart views on what’s cutting-edge. →

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