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Kamala Harris concedes the presidency to Donald Trump, China prepares for another possible trade war͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 7, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Kamala Harris concedes
  2. Trump to shift world order
  3. China preps for trade battle
  4. Musk big election winner
  5. Slowing energy transition
  6. Smog engulfs South Asia
  7. German coalition crumbling
  8. Novo Nordisk results
  9. Japan oil trends
  10. Improving soil quality

A performance artist is sending thousands of postcards to Donald Trump.

1

Harris concedes, Dems flounder

Kamala Harris delivering a concession speech on stage at Howard University.
Mike Blake/Reuters

Kamala Harris accepted defeat in the US presidential race on Wednesday, saying “while I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign.” Harris, the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket, had argued that Donald Trump represented a risk to democracy and women’s rights, but ultimately failed to make inroads with working-class voters frustrated with high prices, analysts said. She also couldn’t effectively break from President Joe Biden, whom some Democrats blamed for staying in the race too long. The party is now grappling with how it lost wide swaths of the electorate. “This is not just one county. This is not just one storyline,” a Democratic lawmaker told Politico. “This is pretty systematic.”

For more on the aftermath of the presidential election, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Trump to shift US place in world order

Donald Trump and Melania Trump waving to supporters.
Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters

Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks a new era for Washington’s position on the world stage, experts said. The Republican’s isolationist tendencies, threats of high tariffs, and questioning of US alliances could lead to a “purer, unadulterated version of America First, with all the destabilizing consequences that would bring,” a Cold War historian said. “The world now lies at Mr. Trump’s feet,” The Economist wrote, arguing that his possible reorientation of the world order “will accelerate the return to pre-war mercantilism,” marked by tariffs and deregulation. The Atlantic’s David Frum, meanwhile, warned that “illiberal politicians who seek to subvert their own democracies will follow America’s lead,” with autocrats likely to increase their harassment of opponents and the press.

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3

China better prepared for Trump

Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

China is better prepared for a trade dispute with the US than during Donald Trump’s first term, analysts said. Trump promises high tariffs on Chinese imports, but Beijing in the last four years has bolstered its defenses, including through export controls and an entity list targeting American companies, Bloomberg wrote. However, China has more to lose now: It’s facing an economic slump and hopes to avoid another trade war, which could force Beijing to take stronger steps to boost domestic spending, Goldman Sachs researchers said. China’s pressure on Taiwan also looms large; Trump has questioned Washington’s military backing for the self-governing island, but it’s unlikely he’ll fully abandon support, Foreign Policy wrote.

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4

Musk emerges as election winner

Elon Musk waving his fist upon Trump’s victory.
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Among the big winners of the presidential election was Elon Musk. The Tesla and SpaceX chief’s empire “stands to gain on several fronts” thanks to his vocal backing of Donald Trump, and his X platform is now “clearly one of the most important… conduits of conservative thought” in the US, Semafor’s Technology Editor Reed Albergotti wrote. Tesla shares surged more than 12% following news of Trump’s victory, with investors betting that the Republican’s threat of withdrawing subsidies for electric vehicles would actually help the carmaker. Tesla is less reliant on subsidies than previously, with its latest models seen as budget-conscious purchases in the US, while tariffs on imported vehicles could help shield it from Chinese competitors.

To dive deeper into Silicon Valley, sign up for Semafor’s twice-weekly tech newsletter. →

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5

Green transition faces Trump test

A line chart showing the changing price of oil

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to slow the global green energy transition. When the Republican was last in office, he withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement, placed fossil fuel lobbyists in charge of key agencies, and muzzled climate scientists. His win has provoked “a deep sense of anxiety that Trump will prove the transition to be much more fragile than anyone wants to admit,” Semafor’s Climate & Energy Editor Tim McDonnell wrote. Oil prices fell on the news of Trump’s victory: Though he has pledged to curb Iranian and Venezuelan output, the incoming president has also pushed for more oil exploration, which would ramp up supplies from the US — already the world’s biggest-ever oil producer.

For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s twice-weekly Net Zero newsletter. →

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6

Smog engulfs South Asia

A busy street with people and cyclists traveling in smoggy air.
Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters

New Delhi’s smog season has begun, with the Indian capital blanketed in factory and vehicle emissions. The city is one of the world’s most polluted, and on Tuesday its air had 18 times the World Health Organization’s safe level of PM2.5 particle pollution. On Delhi’s worst days, that figure can reach 30 times safe levels. Diwali fireworks in particular lead to a surge of respiratory conditions, AFP reported; one study suggested that 1.67 million deaths are attributable to air pollution annually in India. Other countries — notably China — have cleaned up their big cities’ air significantly, but South Asia has yet to see much improvement: Pakistan’s Lahore closed primary schools last week after air quality hit unacceptable levels.

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7

Germany’s political crisis deepens

A close up of Olaf Scholz’s face.
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, imperiling the country’s fragile governing coalition. Dubbed a “traffic light” alliance for including varying hues of politics, Germany’s ministers have for months openly disagreed on how to bolster languid economic growth and plug a budget deficit. The finance minister reportedly proposed early elections to resolve the impasse, prompting his dismissal. “It is completely unclear… what will happen next,” Die Zeit reported. The crisis has sucked up political attention as Berlin debates funding for Ukraine, competition with China, and its response to Donald Trump’s reelection. “Germany is now seen in key capitals across Europe as the biggest obstacle to confronting the strategic issues that count most,” the Berlin-based analyst Noah Barkin wrote.

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Semafor Spotlight
A solar panel farm.
Tingshu Wang/Reuters

General Atlantic and its partner could begin construction of their first green hydrogen project in Oman within 18 months and have products to ship by 2030, Semafor’s Mohammed Sergie reported. The country has ambitions to become one of the world’s largest green hydrogen exporters, and expects its sales to exceed those of liquefied natural gas by 2050.

Subscribe to Semafor’s Gulf newsletter and dive into new ideas that are shaping the Arabian Peninsula. →

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8

Novo Nordisk beats sales forecast

A bar graph showing Novo Nordisk’s quarterly profits

Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk beat its third-quarter sales forecast thanks to persistently high demand for its weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic. The earnings report came as a relief to investors, who were nervous after Novo’s US-based competitor Eli Lilly’s results fell short of expectations. But analysts are increasingly bullish on the long-term societal impact of the drugs, known as GLP-1 agonists, because of their potential to treat cardiovascular and kidney disease in addition to diabetes and obesity. “Short of some crazy unfortunate side effect, this is going to change the world,” a gastroenterologist told Nature.

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9

Aging populations use less oil

An elderly sitting in a garden in Japan.
Wikimedia Commons

Japan’s oil consumption is slowing as a result of its aging population. While the country is still the world’s fifth-largest consumer of energy, its consumption peaked in 2005 before declining by almost a quarter by 2023, one analyst noted. Improved energy efficiency explains part of the drop, but a key reason is that Japan’s working age population — the group most likely to use transport and thus consume more fossil fuels — fell by 14 million. The trend could be replicated in East Asia and elsewhere, as birth rates decline and populations age, potentially bringing forward a peak in demand for oil, which the International Energy Agency projects will occur by 2030.

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10

Boosting soil health fights climate change

An outdoor chicken farm.
Flickr

Improving soil health could boost crop yields and increase resilience to climate change. “Regenerative” farming practices, such as rotating crops between fields, can help the microbial life in soil, while adding non-harvestable plants outside the cash-crop season can prevent erosion, improve soil nutrients, and reduce toxic fertilizer runoff. Research shows that techniques like these reduce the impacts of drought and floods, which are becoming more common as the climate warms, Nature reported. But the switch to regenerative agriculture can take about three years, meaning that it is difficult to achieve without government subsidies or incentives: A US federal program during the COVID-19 pandemic that offered farmers insurance discounts to incentivize them to switch has since expired.

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Flagging

Nov. 7:

  • Nippon Steel — the subject of a US investigation over its proposed takeover of US Steel — reports third-quarter earnings.
  • The Philippines holds a high-level forum about the South China Sea.
  • A detective story set in Istanbul, 10 Days of a Curious Man, premieres on Netflix.
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Curio
Sheryl Oring sits in front of a typewriter at a desk.
Sheryl Oring via Instagram

US President-elect Donald Trump is set to receive thousands of postcards bearing messages from the public, thanks to a performance artist’s long-running popup series. Armed with an old-fashioned typewriter and dressed in a 1960s secretarial uniform, I Wish To Say has seen Sheryl Oring crisscross the country every election season since 2004, helping Americans send the new commander-in-chief their hopes for the next four years. Some know what they want to say right away, while others can take half an hour to compose their message, the artist told Hyperallergic. This Election Day, one participant in Philadelphia who asked to be identified only as Hanifa asked Oring to write simply: “Do right by us.

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