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The G20’s agenda is dominated by absences, Ukraine and its allies voice greater openness to peace ta͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 18, 2024
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The World Today

A numbered map of the world
  1. Absences overshadow G20
  2. Ukraine peace possibility
  3. AI’s growing military use
  4. Trump cabinet controversy
  5. Namibia’s oil growth hopes
  6. Lithium industry obstacles
  7. Violence in China
  8. Mexico’s deficit struggles
  9. Russia science plan delays
  10. Sri Lankan food’s growth

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending a novel about a disaster in 2000s New York.

1

G20 defined by shadows

Brazil’s President Lula Inacio Lula da Silva meets with Angola’s President Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco, ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro.
Ricardo Moraes/Reuters

The G20 summit opens today in Rio de Janeiro, but its agenda will be dominated more by who is not in attendance than who is. US President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to office, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and ongoing climate negotiations at COP29 in Baku top the issues being discussed. Yet the bloc’s members “have never appeared further apart, or less conversant in the same language,” Politico said. The host’s own decision to hew closer to Beijing and Moscow — as well as the Brazilian first lady’s use of an expletive against Trump backer Elon Musk on the eve of the summit — have also undermined its ambitions to place itself “at the center of the world,” Le Monde said.

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2

Ukraine allies open to peace

A chart showing government support to Ukraine from the US and Europe since the beginning of the conflict with Russia

Ukraine and its European allies voiced greater openness to peace talks with Russia, driven in large part by US President-elect Donald Trump’s reelection. Kyiv and its backers in Europe fear Trump will cut off military support for Ukraine, which only yesterday won Washington’s backing to use long-range missiles against Russian territory. The incoming president’s “push for peace negotiations… is finding growing acceptance in Europe,” The Wall Street Journal reported, while Ukraine’s leader said that Kyiv had to end the war next year, acknowledging that “the war will end sooner” with Trump as president. It shows little sign of letting up right now, though: Over the weekend, Russia hammered Ukraine with its third-largest attack this year.

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3

AI models opened up to US defense

Meta CEO Zuckerberg makes a keynote speech at the Meta Connect annual event.
Manuel Orbegozo/File Photo/Reuters

Meta has begun allowing military use of its artificial intelligence model Llama, part of a wider move by Big Tech to back US defense. The Facebook parent apparently bans military use, but it recently explicitly allowed Llama’s use by government agencies “working on defense and national security.” Meanwhile Anthropic’s Claude AI is used by defense contractor Palantir to monitor government data, and OpenAI appointed a former army general to its board. Llama’s quasi-open-source model in particular is controversial: Some experts told IEEE Spectrum it “[fuels] a global AI arms race” by giving sophisticated tech to US adversaries, while others said the open model made it easier to monitor for threats and vulnerabilities.

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4

Trump’s transition troubles

 President-elect Donald Trump arrives during UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden.
Brad Penner/Imagn Images/USA TODAY Sports via Reuters

US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments generated controversy domestically and in financial markets. So far, Trump has reportedly said he will stand by his candidate for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, whose lawyer revealed that the nominee had paid a woman who accused him of sexual assault. Hegseth says the encounter was consensual. A Republican senator also called for a confidential congressional ethics report into Trump’s potential attorney general to be shared with senators who must vote on his appointment. Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, downgraded the pharmaceutical giant GSK to a Hold from a Buy, citing risks to its vaccine business as a result of Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary: RFK has repeatedly questioned the safety of vaccinations.

For more on Trump’s transition, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. Sign up here.
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5

Namibia pins hopes on fossil fuel finds

A chart showing the GDP per capita of Namibia versus Africa, with a forecast until 2029

Namibia hopes that recent offshore oil and gas discoveries could double its annual GDP growth and reduce its longstanding dependence on diamond exports. The series of finds have attracted oil majors to Namibia, and authorities hope to begin production as early as 2027. The government noted the cautionary tales of other oil-rich African countries: The IMF last week said that growth in resource-intensive African economies was far slower than non-resource-rich counterparts. Namibia’s energy minister said it “has learnt enough lessons from others” and would focus on “how this resource could help improve the livelihood of the average Namibian.” But the ruling party, in power since 1990, is unpopular thanks to high inequality, and may not survive an election this month.

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6

Lithium challenges abound

Brine pools used to extract lithium are shown in Argentina
Agustin Marcarian/File Photo/Reuters

Countries are hitting obstacles in the race to find new sources of lithium for the green transition. A mining company’s plans to build Europe’s biggest lithium mine in Serbia are geopolitically sensitive: The European Union and the US back the project, but it is locally unpopular, although the US ambassador says environmental protests are being amplified by Russia. Meanwhile, hopes that India would become a major lithium exporter appear to have been dashed. The government excitedly announced huge reserves in early 2023, but almost two years later nothing has happened. Efforts to auction mining concessions have failed twice due to a lack of bidders. Rest of World reported that the reserves are far smaller than claimed, and uneconomical to access.

For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. Sign up here.
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7

China stabbing leaves eight dead

Police officers keep watch near an entrance to the Wuxi Vocational College of Arts and Technology following a knife attack, in Wuxi.
Brenda Goh/Reuters

A student fatally stabbed eight people in eastern China, the second mass-casualty event in a week. Police said he had failed his university examinations and could not graduate, and was unhappy with his pay at an internship. China’s youth are struggling, grappling with persistently high unemployment and a slowing economy. The attack comes days after 35 people were killed when a car rammed into crowds outside a stadium in southern China. Though reported violence in the country of 1.4 billion people remains low, Chinese authorities are increasingly worried over social instability tied to the country’s economic struggles, and censorship of attacks is typically swift and total, meaning the true number of such incidents is largely unknown.

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8

Mexico’s uphill battle against debt

A chart showing debt as a percent of GDP in Mexico versus Latin America

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum promised to reduce the country’s fiscal deficit, but faces an uphill battle given a slowing economy and dwindling investor confidence. Moody’s downgraded Mexico’s debt outlook to negative, saying that recent judicial reforms could weaken the rule of law and that government spending would be hard to cut. The country’s finances are under pressure because the state oil company needs constant government aid to service its debt burden, and because Sheinbaum’s predecessor began several major infrastructure projects and cash handouts. Sheinbaum accused Moody’s of “bias” but her plan to cut the deficit to 3.9% of GDP, with reductions to health and defense spending, is nevertheless higher than what she suggested last month.

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9

Russia postpones science plans

South facade of Kurchatov Synchrotron, in Moscow
A project to modernize the Kurchatov synchrotron radiation source in Moscow was postponed. Wikimedia Commons.

Russia will postpone three major science infrastructure projects as international sanctions and economic difficulties bite. A new particle accelerator was supposed to begin work this year, but has been delayed until at least late 2025. Efforts to modernize another, older accelerator will be postponed from 2026 to 2028, while a neutron beam generator has also been set back. A government minister said sanctions made it difficult to obtain specialized equipment, while one analyst told Science that Russia’s wartime economy meant even if the equipment was available, funding was hard to come by. Researchers fear the delay will be an obstacle to Russian science keeping up with the rest of the world.

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10

The global growth of Sri Lankan cooking

Sri Lankan lamprais.
Sri Lankan lamprais. Wikimedia Commons.

Sri Lankan food has gone global. Nikkei reported that the island’s cuisine has cropped up across the Asia-Pacific region, “from Australia to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, offering everything from street food to fine dining.” Hoppers — fermented filled pancakes — and kottu, meat-and-veg-topped flatbreads, have become common sights across the region. Chefs told Nikkei that Sri Lankan dining is “broadly similar to Indian food,” but uses coconut butter more than ghee and that its ingredients “are fresh and more vibrant.” The island’s culinary influence is not only seen in Asia: London alone has dozens of restaurants, including a popular chain, and New York has seen Sri Lankan food “take center stage” in recent years.

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Flagging
  • Jordan’s King Abdullah inaugurates a new four-year parliamentary term.
  • The UN nuclear watchdog issues its quarterly report on Iran’s atomic activities.
  • Leonardo da Vinci, a documentary about the 15th-century polymath, debuts on PBS.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

The death of literature

There is a central London graveyard called Bunhill Fields. It’s the last resting place of many well-known people, among them John Bunyan, author of The Pilgrim’s Progress; Daniel Defoe, author of Robinson Crusoe, and the great Romantic poet William Blake. But the educational researcher Daisy Christodoulou notes that those titans of English literature are no longer Bunhill’s most famous inhabitants. Nowadays, that title would probably go to Reverend Thomas Bayes. At his death in 1761 he was almost completely obscure, but today, his name is an adjective, and his work “has had a profound influence on philosophy, medicine and technology.”

That work is not a novel or a poem, but an algorithm for navigating uncertainty. Bayes’ posthumous fame is justified — although Flagship’s Tom would say that, being the author of a book about Bayes. But it is also, says Christodoulou, an indicator of a shift in society: “Maths is in the ascendancy and the humanities, particularly literature, are in decline,” across several countries. “Many of us have grown up in a world where literature was at the heart of the English story,” she writes. “That may not be the case for much longer.”

Learning by watching

Is the widespread availability of adult material online shaping men’s expectations of sex? It’s a common concern, and a difficult one to research. The adult-film-star-turned-data-blogger Aella, though, wants to do just that. She gathered thousands of men and women’s responses — in men’s case, asking what women want in bed; in women’s case, asking what they actually want in bed — and also asked the men how much they watched, among many other questions for both men and women. The results might be surprising: “Yes, porn is affecting men’s judgment of what women like in bed,” Aella writes, but perhaps not how you’d expect.

“Men who watched porn more frequently… were slightly more accurate in their predictions about what women liked,” she writes. That’s because they were more likely to guess that women enjoyed more extreme things, and “women did in fact report liking those [things] more.” She notes that there are lots of possible ways her findings could be false — her sample might be biased, or the result could be due to confounding factors in the data, although she tried to correct for both possibilities. But it was a consistent finding that the women in her survey were “a bit freakier than the men.” WARNING: VERY OBVIOUSLY, THIS POST CONTAINS ADULT THEMES.

Culture is downstream of politics

In the US in the 1960s, there was a claim that “liberals took over Hollywood, while conservatives took over Washington.” The former Donald Trump adviser and Breitbart boss Steve Bannon thought the right’s focus on political power was a tactical error, ceding control of culture to liberals. The philosopher Joseph Heath’s own work suggests the opposite: “Progressives had become obsessed with cultural politics, but that in so doing had made the wrong choice,” because Bannon’s famous claim that “politics is downstream of culture” is backwards.

Heath cites the struggle for gay rights: Decriminalization of homosexuality “happened during a time that a large majority of the population continued to disapprove of it.” When same-sex marriage was legalized, it blindsided some conservatives, who “in a classic case of mistaking a symptom for the cause” blamed the movie Brokeback Mountain. But that film’s political message, that people’s sexual lives are their own business, reflected a three-decade-old legal reality. Culture is not an “all-powerful, controlling force, tantamount to a system of mind control,” although that idea “flatters the self-conception of… academics and journalists.”

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Semafor Recommends
A graphic showing the cover of the novel Lazarus by Richard Price

Lazarus Man by Richard Price. The novel portrays the aftermath of a tenement collapse in New York’s Harlem neighborhood in 2008 which, despite “all the darkness… with its 9/11 overtones,” conveys “a sense of transcendence in the Harlem community’s shared experience and survivors’ spirit,” Kirkus wrote in a starred review. Buy it from your local bookstore.

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Semafor Spotlight
A graphic saying “a great read from Semafor Principals”Mike Johnson at an event with his wife
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Mike Johnson can breathe easy, at least for a few days, Semafor’s Kadia Goba wrote.

The speaker’s job looks safer than ever, thanks in large part to Donald Trump’s vote of confidence in him, but he and the president-elect are about to face a series of unity tests on big votes that risk splintering the GOP.

For more on the months leading up to Trump’s second term in office, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals newsletter. Sign up here.
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