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Israel and Hezbollah trade accusations of violating a fragile ceasefire, India could overtake Japan’͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 29, 2024
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The World Today

A numbered map of the world
  1. Ceasefire violation claims
  2. China military purge expands
  3. India GDP expectations
  4. Temu, Shein win Black Friday
  5. HIV-positive organ transplants
  6. Indonesia’s nickel scrutiny
  7. Lead exposure dangers
  8. Seoul plays Cupid
  9. Orcas kill whale sharks
  10. Squirrels suppress thirst

The art of setting festive tables gets competitive, and our latest WeChat Window.

1

Israel, Hezbollah say ceasefire violated

A general view shows Meiss El Jabal in southern Lebanon, near the Israel-Lebanon border.
Gil Eliyahu/Reuters

Israel and Hezbollah on Thursday accused each other of violating their ceasefire deal that went into effect the day before and was aimed at ending more than a year of fighting. Israel said it opened fire on “suspects” who arrived in southern Lebanon, Reuters reported, while Hezbollah accused Israeli forces of attacking Lebanese people returning to border villages. The accusations were a sign that the ceasefire “is a respite, not a solution” for peace in the Middle East, the BBC’s international editor wrote. Despite the tensions, Hezbollah’s backer Iran doesn’t want the conflict to escalate any time soon, analysts said: Tehran has taken a more conciliatory tone in recent weeks, driven in part by the unpredictability associated with Donald Trump’s return to power.

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2

China graft purge widens

North Korea’s Army General Kim Su Gil and China’s Admiral Miao Hua review the honour guard
Chinese admiral Miao Hua (right) with North Korea’s army general in 2019. KCNA/File Photo/Reuters.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping broadened his purge of top military brass suspected of corruption. A powerful admiral who led a department that enforces party discipline in the military was suspended and put under investigation, authorities said Thursday. Concerns over corruption have hindered Xi’s ambitions to strengthen China’s army and make it more combat-ready. The purge has ensnared dozens of high-ranking officials, including the previous two defense ministers. China’s current defense chief is also being investigated for graft, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, a development the government denied. One expert said the admiral’s dismissal is more serious than those of the defense ministers, who held a largely ceremonial and diplomatic role: “This case… has implications for morale,” he told The New York Times.

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3

India GDP growth set to slow

A bar chart showing India’s quarterly GDP growth with a forecast for the latest quarter.

India’s quarterly GDP data set to be released Friday will likely point to a slight slowdown, but growth is expected to rebound over the next few months. Weaker exports and declining consumption are behind what economists predict could be the slowest growth rate in six quarters. Increased government spending, though, is driving a more positive outlook. India could overtake Japan next year to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, The Economist wrote, benefiting from geopolitical tensions over China’s rise, and because “capital will be attracted to India’s liquid stockmarkets and the inclusion of its bonds in global indices.” India’s central bank governor also said the country is well positioned to handle global economic shocks that might result from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

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4

Chinese brands dominate Black Friday

A Black Friday advertisement is displayed at an Old Navy in Alexandria, Virginia.
Leah Millis/Reuters

This year’s Black Friday shopping holiday can be best defined as “Shein and Temu versus the world,” The Business of Fashion wrote. The Chinese-owned e-commerce giants saw sales jump in the first half of November, while shoppers spent slightly less at major US retailers compared to the same period last year. “This puts many clothing brands in a bind,” BoF wrote. “Retailers can offer deep discounts… but how effective is that going to be when Temu sells lookalikes at impossibly low prices?” The Chinese brands are also outspending their US rivals on online marketing by buying ad space on search engines to target consumers that look up terms like “Walmart Black Friday deals” or “Kohl’s Black Friday,” Reuters reported.

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5

HIV-positive organ transplants allowed

A line chart showing the share of deaths caused by HIV and AIDS in the US, Europe, South-East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

The US will allow liver and kidney transplants between people with HIV. Transplants from HIV patients were banned except in clinical trials, but a recent study confirmed that there were no significant differences between receiving a kidney from a donor with HIV versus one without. The move will increase organ access to all patients in need of transplants, regardless of HIV status, the study’s author told The Washington Post. It’s part of a wider change: A ban on blood donations from men who have had sex with men was overturned last year, while a leading US pediatricians’ group said HIV-positive mothers can breastfeed if their disease is controlled. HIV has “gone from a death sentence to a completely manageable disease,” the researcher said.

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6

Indonesian nickel sites under scrutiny

An area chart showing the share of global nickel production by country, with Indonesia leading.

Indonesia’s dominance of the global nickel supply chain comes at the expense of worker safety. The Southeast Asian country has the world’s largest nickel reserves, and thanks to massive Chinese investment, is the biggest producer of the metal that is a vital component in tech and green energy products. But fatal accidents in the Indonesian industry are common: One worker died last month, and facilities recorded 101 deaths between 2015 and 2024, more than half of them at IMIP, which is the biggest nickel processing plant on the planet. An explosion at another plant last year killed 21 workers. “Production first, safety later,” one worker told the Financial Times. The US recently deemed Indonesian nickel to be produced with forced labor.

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7

Lead likely worse than microplastics

A cloropleth map showing the number of deaths from lead exposure

Lead remains the most harmful chemical pollutant by far despite the focus on microplastics and “forever chemicals.” The Center for Global Development’s Lee Crawfurd noted that nearly half of all chemical-exposure deaths worldwide are from lead exposure, and that its economic cost is more than four times that of plastic pollution. “Plastics and chemicals are garnering headlines,” Crawfurd wrote, but “it’s striking though just how little comparative attention lead gets, when we’re much more certain of its impacts.” This isn’t just a problem of media coverage: A new $26 million UN framework on chemical pollution made no mention of lead. “If the UN is serious about tackling the most harmful pollutants,” Crawfurd argued, “it needs to prioritize lead.”

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Plug
A graphic promoting Semafor’s Davos newsletter

Semafor will be on the ground in Davos for the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering where the world’s most powerful come together to strike deals, tout their good deeds, and navigate the snow — sometimes getting stuck long enough to share a scoop or two with us.

We’ll deliver exclusives on the high-stakes conversations shaping the world. Expect original reporting, scoops, and insights on all the deal-making, gossip, and lofty ambitions — with a touch of the pretentious grandeur Davos is famous for.

Get the big ideas and small talk from the global village — subscribe to Semafor Davos.

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8

Seoul matchmakes to boost birth rate

A line chart showing the declining fertility rate in South Korea, from almost six children per person in 1960 to 0.76 in 2024

The first government-led matchmaking effort in Seoul to boost birth rates was marginally successful. More than 3,200 singles applied to be paired up by the city’s municipal government, and 100 were chosen for a mass blind date. A total of 27 couples were ultimately matched and given a $225 dating package comprised of meal vouchers and tickets. South Korea has tried a wide range of unorthodox methods to reverse its demographic challenges: In August, Buddhist monks hosted a matchmaking event. Officials received some good news on Wednesday, as new monthly data showed the highest year-on-year increase in births in South Korea in almost 14 years.

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9

Killer whales kill whale sharks

Killer whales jumping.
NOAA/Wikimedia Commons

A pod of orcas off the coast of Mexico has learned to kill whale sharks. The whale shark is the world’s largest fish, growing up to 39 feet long — double the size of an orca. But orcas, which are highly intelligent and hunt in packs, learned to stun them and flip them on their backs to access their fatty livers, according to scientists. Orcas develop specific hunting techniques for different prey: They have been known to kill gray whales, dolphins, and great white sharks. The Mexico pod appears to be led by a male known as Moctezuma, who was seen at three of the four known killings of whale sharks, while the fourth involved associates of Moctezuma, suggesting that the specialized knowledge was spreading.

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10

How squirrels ignore thirst

The image shows a squirrel
Gracheva Lab

Hibernating squirrels appear to have evolved a way to avoid quenching their thirst. Researchers found that thirteen-lined ground squirrels suppressed their bodies’ cues to drink water by tamping down activity in a set of neurons in brain structures called circumventricular organs. Activity in these brain cells appeared normal in summer, but in winter it effectively shut down, enabling the squirrels to ignore their thirst for months during hibernation. Even when the squirrels briefly wake in their burrows, they don’t try to seek out water. The study gets at “a question that has gone unanswered, despite more than a century’s worth of hibernation research,” the scientists wrote.

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Flagging

Nov. 29:

  • Ireland votes in a general election.
  • A Starbucks opens in South Korea, with a view of the Demilitarized Zone separating it from North Korea.
  • Senna, a miniseries based on the life of Brazilian F1 champion Ayrton Senna, releases on Netflix.
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WeChat Window

WeChat is the center of the Chinese internet — powering everything from messaging to payments — and the main portal where China’s news outlets and bloggers publish their work.

Juicing the market

Chinese consumers have become more frugal — except when it comes to juice. Sales increased by 24% between 2022 and 2023, with many consumers pointing to a post-pandemic social media craze for healthier, natural foods, according to the business and tech website 36kr. The surge in demand for juice means that companies that offer seasonal, organic drinks are now often out of stock and prices in grocery stores are rising — but that hasn’t stopped people from seeking out the products.

Several new juice companies have popped up in recent years because marketing has evolved from “being brand-driven to being channel-driven,” 36kr wrote: Thanks to social media, new companies can get direct customer feedback instead of paying for market studies. Social media “makes it easy for juice and other drinks to spread [by] word of mouth… and also provides the possibility for the replication of popular products.”

Public relations

Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com was “besieged” last month by internet rumors and conspiracy theories, including claims that its founder and his wife were members of the “illuminati” and that they used the credit card information of inactive users, according to the China Business Strategy blog. But the apparent smear campaign targeting JD.com is “not an isolated case,” and points to a larger issue of disinformation on Chinese social media, the blog wrote.

The company had the resources to address the rumors, but small businesses facing similar situations often do not respond publicly because “the more they speak, the more they are considered to be guilty and quibbling,” the blog wrote. These rumors are often part of smear campaigns from competitors; although police are still investigating the JD.com incident, the sophistication of the attacks suggests “it’s not something that some bored, anti-business and anti-rich netizen could pull off.”

Master of none

China’s youth are increasingly hesitant about completing master’s degrees: The number of applicants taking the national postgraduate entrance exam decreased by 360,000 year-on-year in 2024, and is expected to fall by an additional 500,000 students in 2025, according to Southern Weekly magazine. Students are realizing that a master’s “cannot solve the employment problem,” the magazine wrote.

The enrollment decline is having a broader impact on education, with many universities now cutting academic master’s programs, which usually center around research, to fund professional degrees that prepare students for careers in specific fields like law or medicine. But professional degrees are considerably more expensive than academic ones, and can also be off-putting to Chinese Gen-Z, who typically prioritize “the quality of their lives, especially a life without stress,” Southern Weekly wrote.

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Curio
A table arrangement
Wikimedia Commons

Thanksgiving hosts wanting to take their place settings to the next level can look to the competitive art of tablescaping. A giant squid, a fake urn for a fictitious dead cat, and papier mâché aliens were among the imaginative decor adorning tables at the Los Angeles County Fair’s tablescaping competition this year, The New York Times reported. Coined in the 1960s as “the discipline of selection,” tablescapes typically feature ambitious themes realized through immaculate place settings and extravagant handmade pieces that can take a year to craft. Judges deduct points for inconsistent napkin patterns or less-than-spotless silver. “It’s amazing,” one judge told The Times. “People now decorate even the legs of the tables.”

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