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Putin threatens Ukraine with ballistic missiles, France’s government faces a vote of no confidence o͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 29, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Putin’s missile threat
  2. Nigerian leader in Paris
  3. France’s budget standoff
  4. China’s ‘Japanification’
  5. Brazil stock market falls
  6. GOP’s dwindling majority
  7. Consumers race tariffs
  8. UK assisted dying vote
  9. Japan drinks less
  10. 850yo UK markets to close

What a $6 million banana is worth, and recommending a history show that inspired a generation of children.

1

Putin menaces Kyiv

A photo showing Vladimir Putin
Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Kremlin via Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use intermediate-range missiles against Kyiv, the latest sign of his escalating push against Ukraine. His remarks came as Russian forces intensified attacks on frontline Ukrainian troops, and Moscow’s defense minister visited Pyongyang to advance ties with North Korea. Kyiv’s allies are scrambling to respond: Washington is readying a $725 million weapons package, according to Reuters, but the US is unlikely to deploy all of the $7 billion in military aid authorized by Congress before President Joe Biden leaves office, CNN noted. His successor, Donald Trump, has pledged to quickly end the war, which Ukraine fears would mean it having to give up territory.

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2

Tinubu’s France visit suggests Africa shifts

A photo showing Bola Tinubu and Emmanuel Macron clasping hands
Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu opened a three-day state visit to France, a bid by Abuja to bolster trade and by Paris to strengthen relations with Anglophone Africa. The trip is the first by a Nigerian leader to France since 2000, and comes as the African nation courts foreign investment in an effort to battle slow economic growth and persistent inflation. For France, the trip showcases its pivot from Francophone Africa: Nigeria is its biggest trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by South Africa, and French influence has waned in former colonies such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, while Chad said today it would end military cooperation with France.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly Africa newsletter. →

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3

France faces budget crisis

A line chart comparing French government spending to Germany, the UK, and the US

French opposition leader Marine Le Pen set a Monday deadline for the government to capitulate over her budget demands or risk a confidence motion, intensifying a political crisis that has roiled financial markets. The nationalist, far-right leader wants tougher migration policies, no new taxes, and inflation-indexed pensions, but France is facing pressure over a widening budget deficit. The government has threatened to adopt the budget without a vote, but Le Pen has promised to propose a no-confidence motion in response. Markets have been unimpressed by the standoff: Yields on French 10-year bonds for the first time matched those on Greek debt — a symbolic threshold, given that Athens was a decade ago at the center of the European debt crisis.

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4

China’s ‘Japanification’ risk

Chinese long-term bond yields fell below those of Japan’s, underlining concerns among investors over Beijing’s slowing economy and the risk of deflation. Analysts have increasingly suggested that China may be experiencing “Japanification,” referring to Japan’s period of prolonged economic stagnation in part triggered by the bursting of a real estate bubble. “Nineties Japan remains the playbook,” one analyst told the Financial Times. Beijing this month unveiled a bailout for local governments but, in a sign of the scale of the challenge, several are struggling to even pay civil servants and medical staff, The Wall Street Journal noted.

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5

Brazil cuts disappoint

A line chart showing the value of the Brazilian real against the dollar

The Brazilian real dropped to a record low and the country’s stock market plummeted after long-awaited spending cuts disappointed investors. Analysts are increasingly concerned with Brazil’s soaring budget deficit, which this year topped 2.3% of GDP. Public coffers have been strained as the government has sought to respond to both historic floods and droughts, a pattern of extreme weather that has sapped growth across South America. Critics say tax exemptions introduced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have further strained Brazil’s budget. The spending cuts announcement was “a defining moment for [the] Lula government — and it didn’t go well,” the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly wrote.

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6

GOP’s razor-thin House majority

A photo of the US Capitol
Creative Commons

The Republican Party’s majority in the US House of Representatives has eroded to a razor-thin margin due to late electoral successes by the Democrats combined with President-elect Donald Trump staffing his administration from Congress. Though the GOP controls the White House, Senate, and House, Trump has plucked three members of the House for his team. Special elections to replace them will not be held until April, meaning that from January, Republicans will have no more than 217 seats, while an expected Democratic victory in California — the last remaining undecided seat — will put them on 215. A two-seat majority leaves “no room for error” for Trump’s agenda, The Washington Times reported.

For more on the Trump transition, subscribe to Semafor’s US politics newsletter. →

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7

US retailers peg sales to tariffs

A chart showing the rapid decline in US import tariffs.

US retailers are using President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs as a marketing strategy, prodding buyers to act before price hikes hit. Trump has proposed a raft of tariffs on countries across the globe, including as high as 60% on all imports from China. Experts have warned companies could be forced to pass the higher costs on to consumers: Mexico’s economy ministry said Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on the country would add as much as $3,000 to the price of the US’ best-selling cars. “You think you are paying a lot now, wait till the new tariffs hit,” the owner of a fishing rod manufacturer told The Wall Street Journal.

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8

UK votes on assisted dying

Protesters hold placards up outside Parliament in London
Mina Kim/Reuters

The UK Parliament votes today on whether to legalize assisted dying. Lawmakers have been freed to vote with their consciences, rather than along party lines, on a subject that has triggered emotional debates. A similar bill was overwhelmingly defeated in 2015, but public opinion and the makeup of Parliament has since shifted. Proponents told MPs about their loved ones’ agonizing final days, and one terminally ill man said he would “want to go peacefully” at a time of his choosing. But there are concerns: The policy writer James O’Malley, though in favor of assisted dying, said he was “deeply ambivalent” about the bill, worried it lacked safeguards, and suggested the government should “go away and come back with something better.”

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9

Japan’s booze culture is declining

A photo of an izakaya in Tokyo
Flickr

One of Japan’s biggest pub chains is pivoting away from bars and toward fast food, driven by a post-pandemic change in the country’s drinking habits. Miki Watanabe, CEO of Watami, said “only 80 per cent of customers have returned to izakayas,” small late-night bars that serve simple food. Before the onset of COVID-19, Japanese business culture revolved around boozy nights out, the Financial Times reported, but younger generations are less likely to drink and office workers are spending more time at home. Watami bought the Japanese operator of Subway: “What has been returning is fast food. Delivery is even higher than before the pandemic.”

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10

London’s medieval markets to close

A photo from inside Billingsate market
Wikimedia Commons

Two of London’s oldest markets will close after 850 years. Smithfield and Billingsgate markets, selling meat and fish respectively, have operated since medieval times: They were founded in the 12th century, and King Edward III licensed them in AD 1327. Dutch fishermen helped feed London via Billingsgate after the Great Fire of London in 1666. The markets have moved before, and efforts were made to find them a new site — both are being turned into accommodation, much needed in the face of London’s housing crisis — but rising construction costs made that impossible. The hundreds of meat and fish traders will scatter throughout the city after Smithfield and Billingsgate close in 2028.

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Flagging
  • Uruguay’s president-elect visits the Brazilian leader in Brasília.
  • Iceland holds a snap parliamentary election on Saturday.
  • Taylor Swift releases The Eras Tour Book about her record-breaking concert tour.
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Plug

The 40,000 finance and banking jobs that London lost post Brexit? The best of them went to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the world’s most exciting financial hubs. Our friends at EnterpriseAM are tracking it all, reporting on what’s driving dealflow and shaping business decisions in the UAE. Stay ahead of the forces shaping the region — subscribe to EnterpriseAM for free.

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Semafor Stat
24.8 million

The number of bananas that could have been purchased for the price of Comedian, an absurdist artwork consisting of a banana taped to a wall that recently sold for $6.2 million at auction. The banana used in Maurizio Cattelan’s work was bought for 25 cents from Shah Alam, a fruit seller in Manhattan’s Upper East Side, shortly before the auction began. When Alam heard the final sale price for the work, he began to cry, feeling the joke was at his expense. “Those who bought it, what kind of people are they?” Alam asked The New York Times. “Do they not know what a banana is?

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Semafor Recommends

Horrible Histories. The BBC’s history program aimed at curious children is a British icon: It is being awarded a special BAFTA, the British equivalent of an Oscar, today, in recognition of “the joy, enrichment, and hilarity” it has brought “people of all ages” for 15 years. A historian writing in The Conversation said that it has “transformed and democratised history learning,” and that it has been a “springboard” for her 11-year-old daughter’s fascination with the topic, particularly “learning about William the Conqueror to the deliciously anachronistic melody of Gangnam Style.” Watch Horrible Histories on the BBC website or on Prime Video in the US.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor AfricaThe OpenAI logo
Ishmael Daro/Flickr

French telecoms company Orange plans to partner with Meta and OpenAI to develop new artificial intelligence models trained on African languages, Semafor’s Alexander Onukwue reported. Orange’s project comes amid rising interest in making AI tools available to African audiences, but it may not be an easy undertaking for a diverse continent in which more than 3,000 languages are spoken, Onukwue wrote.

For crucial stories from the ground in Africa, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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