Net Zero

1. Tariff anxiety
2. Climate risk still exists
3. Negotiation frustration
4. Tesla’s grim sales stats
5. Ocean economy deepens

Breaking the home insurance ‘doom loop,’ and TotalEnergies won’t rule out a return for Russian gas.

Tariff anxiety

Energy companies are bracing for the latest round of tariffs expected from US President Donald Trump on Wednesday.

Oil executives are already frustrated by additional drilling and pipeline costs created by tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to a survey last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. More broadly, the escalation of tariffs across the global economy threatens to freeze consumer spending on energy products; this week several Wall Street banks cut their forecasts for this year’s oil prices. Renewable energy companies, too, are feeling the heat: Potential tariffs on copper — critical for transmission lines, batteries, and other clean energy hardware — are driving prices to record highs.

The SEC can’t ignore climate risk forever

The top US financial regulator wants to let one of its signature accomplishments of recent years die on the vine. The move’s immediate practical impact is limited, but its symbolic resonance is significant.

Mark Uyeda, acting chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said the agency will drop its legal defense of rules it adopted in the last months of Joe Biden’s presidency that requires many companies to publish information about their emissions and exposure to climate risk. The rules are embroiled in lawsuits brought by 25 Republican state attorneys general and lobbying groups, who argued they overstepped the SEC’s authority.

Last week’s decision by the SEC — which is independent but currently controlled by Republican officials appointed by US President Donald Trump — was a predictable next step in a protracted anti-ESG backlash that has only become more prominent in the US since Trump retook office. Even under Biden, the rules barely made it to completion, and only after the SEC dropped a requirement to report Scope 3 emissions — those from companies’ supply chains and customers — that many climate-conscious investors viewed as essential.

And yet, the most likely next step in the saga of climate-conscious investing is that more companies will disclose their climate data, even if the SEC isn’t asking for it.

Negotiation frustration

US President Donald Trump threatened secondary energy sanctions against Russia and offered a new, unpalatable minerals deal to Ukraine as part of efforts to broker peace negotiations that appear to have left all sides frustrated.

The latest version of the deal with Kyiv reportedly stretches well beyond critical minerals to include revenue from oil and gas, other natural resources, and infrastructure projects such as ports and pipelines, which would be put into a fund controlled by the US. In spite of intense pressure from Trump for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign off as early as this week, Kyiv remains very reluctant to hand over its economic sovereignty — which, among other issues, could complicate its EU membership application — while receiving no concrete US security guarantees in exchange. Meanwhile, Trump said he is “pissed off” with Russian President Vladimir Putin for stalling on his side of peace talks, and threatened to impose sanctions on third countries, such as India and China, that buy Russian oil.

Tesla’s grim sales stats

Average of analysts’ expectations for Tesla’s first-quarter sales, due this week. That would be about 7% lower than the same period last year. Public frustration with CEO Elon Musk’s political activities is one explanation for plunging sales, analysts say. Another is the lack of long-overdue upgrades to the company’s offerings, including the addition of new low-cost models and an upgrade to the Model Y. Tesla stock is down 32% for the year.

Ocean economy deepens

The global “ocean economy” doubled in real terms between 1995 and 2020, but its future growth trajectory heavily depends on whether the energy transition accelerates or stalls, the OECD warned in a new report.

In both scenarios, the ocean economy — currently dominated by tourism and offshore oil and gas — is unlikely to continue growing at that pace because of pressures including climate change, demographics shifts, and geopolitical tensions intensifying, Claire Jolly, head of the OECD’s Ocean and Space Economy program told Semafor.

But a stalled transition could exacerbate those issues, leading to a more pronounced slowdown and possibly even a period of contraction as innovation lags and the effects of climate change go unchecked.

Territorial expansion in particular is something of a double-edged sword when it comes to ocean management, Jolly added. Sovereignty claims have improved stewardship in some areas, but also “intensified competition over resources, access, and influence,” undermining cooperation on transboundary issues like climate mitigation, she said.

New Energy

• Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies will invest $713.6 million into expanding their flagship carbon capture and storage project in Norway.
• Also in Norway: The country’s sovereign wealth fund is buying a 49% stake in two offshore wind projects from German utility RWE that are currently under construction but could produce enough electricity to supply more than 2.6 million households once fully commissioned.

Fossil Fuels

• The China National Offshore Oil Corporation said it had discovered an oilfield in the South China Sea with proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes.
• TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he wouldn’t rule out the return of Russian gas exports to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline. Other experts remain skeptical that this will ever happen.

Finance

• US President Donald Trump’s erratic posting on X and TruthSocial has sparked volatility in commodities markets, though some firms are profiting from the dislocation.
• The US’ federal banking regulator withdrew principles providing guidance on the management of climate-related risks, describing them as “overly burdensome and duplicative.”

Politics & Policy

• Italy, France, and Slovakia are leading calls for the European Union to go further in paring back its carbon border levy. And European airline companies want the bloc to ease rules around carbon pricing and sustainable aviation fuel.

EVs

• Europe’s second largest carmaker Stellantis will buy credits from a Tesla-led “pool” in 2025 to meet the EU’s CO2 reduction requirements.

COP30

• The town hosting COP30 is about 30,000 beds short for the expected attendees, so organizers are turning to converted ferries and “love motels.”
• The global energy transition is forging ahead without the US, China’s special climate envoy said.

Sarah Kapnick, Global Head of Climate Advisory at J.P. Morgan. Her new paper explores how home insurance can escape the “doom loop” of rising costs and private insurer exits.

As Democrats begin their slow slog back to power, they’re grappling with how the party found itself so hopelessly outmatched online — and what it can do to recover, Semafor’s Max Tani reported.

One possible solution, epitomized by California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s new podcast, involves tacking to the rhetorical center: “We’ve got to get out of our safe spaces and get into where other people are living,” Newsom told Tani last week. “That’s really what this podcast is about.”