Net Zero

1. Buying the dip
2. Silver lining for climate debt?
3. Musk plays catchup
4. Steep solar tariffs
5. Climate targets fall short

A former president’s climate hopes for the World Bank, and Pope Francis’ climate legacy.

The energy business has never been a place for the faint of heart, but between trade wars, booming power demand, and an uneven decarbonization push there’s more than ever to keep energy CEOs awake at night. This week Semafor will host our biggest World Economy Summit yet, putting many of the world’s top corporate and government leaders in the hot seat about how they’re navigating an exceptionally turbulent period. Energy will be front and center in many of these conversations: We’ll hear from US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, as well as the CEOs of several top energy and mining companies.

Being an energy CEO these days often entails making very expensive, long-term spending decisions with little real clarity on what the near future will hold. Many of the axioms and trends that have guided the industry in recent decades are falling by the wayside, while there’s mounting political pressure to deliver energy “dominance,” a nice-sounding goal with no widely agreed definition.

But in the conversations I’ve had leading up to WES, I haven’t heard much panic. Instead, it seems energy CEOs are getting more focused and less experimental. They have a lot to get done in the next decade. If you’ll be joining us at WES, please come find me and say hi; if not, stay tuned here in the newsletter for our coverage.

Why oil investors are buying the dip

Specialist investors aren’t spooked by a recent plunge in oil prices and oil-company shares, and think the US is still headed for more drilling as President Donald Trump chases an “energy dominance” agenda.

Oil prices are at their lowest since the pandemic, hovering around $64 in the US, as Trump’s tariff crusade raises the likelihood of a global economic slowdown that would eat into oil demand. Meanwhile, as demand dries up, the global supply is increasing as OPEC countries raise their production quotas in part because of pressure from Trump to help keep gasoline prices low for American drivers.

It all adds up to a rough patch for fossil-fuel shareholders: The S&P oil and gas index is down 14% for the quarter, nearly twice the drop of the broader S&P 500. Shares of Liberty Energy, the fracking company previously run by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, are down 43%.

The question is how long that downturn might last — and although things look dark now, practiced oil investors with a bit of patience are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel.

“The assets are starting to look attractive,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, an oil and gas-focused investment firm. “My peer group has been fairly cautious and measured for a while. I would not call us bullish yet, but prices can’t stay that bad for that long, so right now the value is pretty good.”

Silver lining for climate debt?

The global economic slowdown that financial leaders will grapple with at this week’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington could provide an opening for a reform climate advocates have been chasing for years.

In remarks last week setting the stage for the meeting, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called on developing countries to do more to tackle their crushing sovereign debt burdens, which will only get worse because of global inflation and rising trade barriers. Sovereign debt restructuring also happens to be critical for climate adaptation, said Michael Jacobs, a former UK climate official and senior fellow at the think tank ODI Global. A recent report commissioned by the governments of Colombia, Kenya, France, and Germany urged development banks to allow indebted countries to get more debt relief in exchange for climate action. Whether there’s still political will in the World Bank to allow that is uncertain.

International finance officials are becoming more circumspect about climate action so as to avoid becoming a target for the Trump administration’s ire, Jacobs said, “but I don’t get any sense that the management or the other shareholders want to actually do less” on climate. Debt restructuring could be a way to score a climate win without putting it in those terms, per se. But it’s not clear yet whether the US, which under Trump has massively scaled back foreign aid, would have much enthusiasm for debt relief in any form.

Iván Duque, former president of Colombia, will talk about his work on conservation at the World Economy Summit this week.

Musk plays catchup

Tesla CEO Elon Musk will have a chance to win back investors’ confidence when the EV maker reports first-quarter sales today. Even though Musk is reportedly plotting an exit from his role in the Trump administration, his high-profile political antics have already damaged Tesla sales and crushed the company’s share price. Musk is also under pressure to deliver a long-awaited self-driving model. So it’s a make-or-break moment for Musk to prove that he still has a compelling vision for leading the company, and that 2025’s lackluster performance was an aberration and not the first step in a protracted decline.

The World Economy Summit 2025 is bringing together the decision-makers who are shaping the future of global economic policy. The three-day summit, taking place from April 23–25, 2025 in Washington, DC, will focus on ways leaders across business, finance, tech, and beyond are navigating the complexities of tariffs, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving policy landscapes.

Featuring on-the-record conversations with Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary; Sean Duffy, US Transportation Secretary; Jörg Kukies, Federal Minister of Finance, Germany; Éric Lombard, Minister of Economy and Finance, France; Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, United Kingdom; Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary, and more, the summit will facilitate in-depth discussions on how countries are adapting to these challenges and building resilience in a rapidly changing world.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Steep solar tariffs

Maximum tariff the US will slap on solar panels imported from some manufacturers in Southeast Asia, following a multiyear federal investigation of unfair trade practices. The tariffs, under development since the Biden administration, effectively seek to close off a route Chinese solar companies had used to circumvent existing tariffs and retain access to the US market. The fees are steepest for companies in Cambodia, which had stopped participating in the investigation. Although more expensive solar panels will raise the cost of US solar installations, the attorney representing US solar manufacturers who had pushed for the tariffs called it “a decisive victory for American manufacturing.”

Climate targets fall short

Ahead of COP30 in November, none of the world’s major emitters — the US, EU, China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil — have put forward emissions reduction targets aggressive enough to keep a 1.5°C warming scenario within reach, the World Resources Institute warned.

The Biden administration published an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) one month before leaving office that committed to cutting emissions 61-65% below 2005 levels by 2035. But only the most ambitious range of the US target aligns with a 1.5°C “least-cost” pathway, while a “fair-share” pathway acknowledging the country’s relative wealth and historic responsibility for climate change would require cuts of up to 140%.

“It’s hard to fathom domestic emissions dropping by that margin, let alone going deep into negative emissions, even if we had a climate warrior in the White House,” Clea Schumer, a WRI research associate, told Semafor. As the federal government rolls back climate action, though, US states, cities, businesses, and others can still make “important headway” toward a 1.5°C future, she said.

— Mizy Clifton

New Energy

• Secondhand solar panels are hot products on sites like Facebook and eBay, where devotees tout their low price and environmental benefits.
• The Trump administration’s pause on Equinor’s offshore wind project puts $28 billion of investment at risk.

Fossil Fuels

• Exxon Mobil and other oil companies are investing millions of dollars testing technologies designed to evaporate wastewater from fracking, as the US Environmental Protection Agency reviews wastewater regulations for the oil and gas industry.

Finance

• Sustainability investors are increasingly eyeing defense stocks as the two industries develop mutual ambitions amid geopolitical tensions.

Tech

• Venture capitalists are fleeing the climate sector for AI, but may find themselves coming full circle as companies use the technology to tackle climate change.

Politics & Policy

• The Trump administration has halted work on the National Climate Assessment, the most comprehensive source of information about how climate change affects the US.
• US environmental groups are on edge for a possible Earth Day move by the administration to strip them of their tax-exempt status.

Personnel

• Pope Francis used his papacy to shift the Roman Catholic Church’s stance on environmentalism, largely by framing it as a spiritual rather than political or scientific issue.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff push is heaping pressure on blue-state House Republicans to get state and local tax relief for their constituents by lifting the so-called SALT cap on deductions, Semafor’s Kadia Goba reported.

“Hard-working families I represent face skyrocketing living costs and state and local taxes. The SALT cap hurts their bottom line even more,” Rep. Young Kim, R-CA, told Goba.

Though blue-state GOPers have folded on their demands in the past, Goba wrote, tariff pain gives them significantly more leverage, and their time may have come.