The News
Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has committed genocide in the country’s civil war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Tuesday.
“The RSF and allied militias have systematically murdered men and boys — even infants — on an ethnic basis, and deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence,” Blinken said.
The Treasury Department sanctioned the head of the RSF, citing the militia group’s “litany of documented war crimes and atrocities, including ethnically motivated killings and sexual violence as a weapon of war.”
The department also imposed sanctions on RSF-owned companies based in the United Arab Emirates, which has been accused of providing weapons to the group in spite of a UN arms embargo.
The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF that started in 2023 has killed tens of thousands and left more than 11 million Sudanese displaced.
Both Democrats and Republicans have accused the Biden administration of doing little to end the war in Sudan, but the US has launched a last-ditch effort to pressure the warring parties in recent weeks.
SIGNALS
US sanctions come after months of delay
Two former US officials told Semafor that extensive sanctions packages stalled for much of last year as the US launched an unsuccessful push for a ceasefire, creating frustration in some parts of the Biden administration. The US slowed down sanctions while it sought to bring the warring parties together in Geneva last fall, but both sides ultimately failed to show up. There is “no evidence,” that US policy on Sudan has been working, a former US official told Politico. “This attempt to position the administration on the right side of history won’t work,” Sudan expert Cameron Hudson argued “It’s too late and too many people have died.”
Views are split on Trump’s approach to Sudan
Experts are divided on what the incoming Trump administration will mean for Sudan. Some believe Trump’s leadership style could help break the deadlock: “I am cautiously optimistic that with a fresh set of faces and President Trump’s reputation for not being the type of person you want to mess around with, maybe there can be a little bit of progress,” Joshua Meservey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Semafor, although he stressed that it remains an intractable conflict. Others are less hopeful. A Democratic Hill staffer predicted the civil war will receive scant attention from Trump’s administration, telling Semafor it will be even less likely to crack down on the involvement of external states such as the UAE.
Crisis in Sudan is expected to worsen this year
Famine is expected to spread into new parts of Sudan this year, with half the country’s population facing acute food insecurity, a coalition of humanitarian organizations warned. On the battlefield, no end is in sight as neither party appears able to achieve a total victory or is willing to negotiate. “Sudan’s civil war will probably grow even more brutal, complex, and difficult to resolve,” The Economist predicted. Turkey became the latest country to launch an effort to mediate the civil war in early December, after unsuccessful efforts by African nations, the US, and Saudi Arabia. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed to lead talks between the Sudanese military government and the UAE, and a senior Turkish official travelled to Port Sudan last week.