The year ahead in 10 election days

Jan. 14: Minnesota will hold primaries in two districts that can shift control of the state legislature, both of them reliably blue — giving Republicans a fleeting chance to shape the agenda in St. Paul. Last month, a Democrat who won a seat in the capital’s suburbs resigned after a successful challenge to his residency, granting Republicans a one-seat House majority; the very next day, a Democratic state senator from Minneapolis died, leaving that chamber tied. Gov. Tim Walz scheduled quick replacement primaries, with elections following two weeks later.

Jan. 28: In eastern Iowa, voters will fill the state Senate vacancy created when Republican Chris Cournoyer left her seat to become lieutenant governor. Democrats used to be competitive in this part of the state — party chair Rita Hart represented part of it in the legislature — but Cournoyer won her last term by 22 points, and the national party is not yet contesting the seat.

Apr. 1: Control of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court is up for grabs again, with Democrats defending the 4-3 majority they secured two years ago. Republicans are taking this race more seriously: Brad Schimel, the state’s last GOP attorney general, raised $2.2 million after he announced his candidacy, not far behind Democrat Susan Crawford, and the GOP majority in Madison is working to put a voter ID measure on the ballot to boost conservative turnout. State education superintendent Jill Underly will also seek reelection that day; four years ago, Republicans tried but failed to make her race a referendum on trans rights and COVID restrictions in schools. (She’ll also face challengers in a Feb. 18 primary.)

In Florida, two House seats vacated by Republicans who wanted to join the Trump administration will hold replacement elections — Matt Gaetz’s 1st District in the panhandle, and Michael Waltz’s 6th District along the Space Coast. Trump won both seats by 2-1 margins in November, and neither looks like a pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Apr. 15: Oakland, California will elect a new mayor, six months after a recall that removed a scandal-plagued progressive who voters blamed for rising crime. Former Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee entered the race this month, instantly becoming the frontrunner.

May 20: Pennsylvania’s major cities will hold party primaries, with two more tests of the progressive movement. In Philadelphia, District Attorney Larry Krasner is seeking a third term, after fending off a 2021 challenger who blamed him and de-carceral reform policies for a post-COVID rise in crime. It helped Krasner that the Fraternal Order of Police, which had endorsed Trump in 2020, endorsed his opponent; this year, he might face PAC spending from Elon Musk after briefly suing the tech billionaire over his daily $1 million giveaways to voters who signed up with his America PAC. In Pittsburgh, Mayor Ed Gainey faces his first reelection test after becoming the city’s first Black leader four years ago.

Jun. 10: Republicans are more bullish on New Jersey than they’ve been in years: Trump got 46% of the vote against Kamala Harris, and Gov. Phil Murphy nearly lost reelection in 2021. The Republican who almost beat him, Jack Ciattarelli, never really stopped running, and is raising far more money than he did four years ago over lesser-known competitors.

The Democratic field is far more crowded, with no clear successor to Murphy. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Rep. Mikie Sherrill both jumped into the race last year, joining Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. (Sweeney’s the one candidate from south Jersey, but lost his own seat in a 2023 upset — to a truck driver who spent almost no money.)

Jun. 17: In Virginia, both parties will pick their nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and the House of Delegates. GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is running to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and Attorney Gen. Jason Miyares is seeking a second term, a deal that’s prevented any rough competition at the top of the ballot; the only contested GOP primary is for Earle-Sears’s job.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger has no real competition for the Democrats’ gubernatorial nomination, and won’t unless Rep. Bobby Scott decides to run by the April deadline. Four years ago, primary voters picked a Democratic ticket entirely from northern Virginia, with no Black candidates. That helped Republicans in 2021, and that experience has shaped this year’s races for lieutenant governor and attorney general — both with credible Black candidates from outside the D.C. suburbs.

Jun. 24: New York Mayor Eric Adams will face Democratic voters in a ranked-choice primary, which has pulled in seven challengers so far — none as well-known as former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has until April 28 to file. Adams was unpopular before his indictments last year. But his numbers have sunk further since then, and since he started campaigning for a pardon from Trump. Still, in public polling, most Black voters still support Adams and don’t want him to resign.

That’s where ranked-choice voting comes in. Four years ago, Adams won 31% of the Democratic primary vote, but nearly lost the instant runoff when second-choice voters for other candidates were counted. He was ready to go to court if he lost that way, but Adams is far less popular now, and the other non-Cuomo candidates, most of them with more progressive records than the mayor, see a path to victory through those second-choice votes.

Aug. 5: Primaries will take place in a number of major cities, including Detroit, where Mayor Mike Duggan is retiring to run for governor, and Seattle, where incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell has no serious challengers yet. Republicans aren’t competitive in either city, but in 2021, the top two finishers in the race for city attorney were a left-wing police abolitionist and a Democrat-turned-Republican, Ann Davison, who picked up major Democratic endorsements amid a backlash to post-COVID crime and rioting.

Nov. 4: New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City will hold their general elections, alongside a number of major cities, including Boston, Miami, San Antonio, and St. Louis. Pennsylvanians will vote in local races and state Supreme Court elections that could, if Republicans do well, end liberal control of a body that was under glaring lights during 2020 election challenges.

In Trump’s first term, strong Democratic performances in the suburbs previewed what would happen in the midterms; this year, Democrats head into these races with their weakest registration advantage in decades. And in Manchester, N.H., Republican Mayor Jay Ruais is seeking a second term, after narrowly winning in 2023 and tapping into voter anger at crime and homelessness.