Tareq’s view
After two years of political deadlock, Lebanon has a new president. Army commander Joseph Aoun’s election marks a breakthrough for a country long paralyzed by internal divisions and regional rivalries. Lebanon is still challenged by economic and social crises, but a new government in Syria alongside Hezbollah’s weakening position has opened a window for Beirut to stabilize and reintegrate into the region. Gulf nations are carefully watching the developments in Beirut and cautiously engaging with its government.
The Gulf’s connection to Lebanon runs deep — hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have chosen to make the Gulf home. Lebanese food, music, art, and cinema are popular among Gulf citizens. Before Hezbollah grew to dominate Lebanon, Beirut was a preferred vacation destination for Gulf nationals, many of whom still own homes there.
In response to the humanitarian cost of Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah, the Gulf has sent financial aid. In 2024, Gulf states pledged more than $150 million in support, with $100 million from the UAE.
Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon has long strained the country’s ties with the Gulf. Besides Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran, the group’s drug smuggling operations, including captagon exports to the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, have been a source of embarrassment to the Lebanese government and friction between it and the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, at one point, banned the import of produce from Lebanon after some 5 million pills were found in pomegranates.
But the tide has turned against Hezbollah after Israel’s military action in Lebanon severely weakened the group, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad led to the loss of an ally in Damascus — as well as key smuggling routes. Iran’s diminished influence in the Levant marks the start of a new era in the region. Aoun’s presidency reflects this new dynamic, with Riyadh reportedly having a key role in working with Washington to broker the political breakthrough.
In his inaugural speech, Aoun emphasized combating organized crime, money laundering, and drug smuggling — priorities to both Washington and Gulf nations. He also said that Beirut is ready for closer ties with Arab countries and a positive relationship with the new government in Syria. He also stated that only the Lebanese state should have weapons, a direct dig at Hezbollah. This received a rapturous ovation in Parliament, a clear sign in what was once a divided country that opinion in Beirut has turned against the weakened group.
Lebanon’s democracy is a balancing act among its major sects: a Shiite speaker of Parliament, a Sunni prime minister, and a Maronite Christian president. For two years, this system was paralyzed, but Lebanon can now unlock the full executive powers of its government.
The economic and social challenges ahead are daunting, and Lebanon will need all the help it can get. Inflation reached an annual rate of 221% in 2023, and the Lebanese lira has lost 98% of its value since 2020. More than 40% of the population lives in poverty, and Israel’s airstrike campaign against Hezbollah displaced more than 1.2 million people, killed and injured thousands, and caused devastating damage to buildings and infrastructure.
The weakening of Hezbollah and the election of Aoun as president offer a chance for Lebanon to reset. The question is how Hezbollah will react to its reduced influence in Beirut and the increased assertiveness of Sunni and Christian groups in the country. As the Lebanese military is strengthened with US and Gulf support, will the group be able to maintain control in the south of the country, where it has long been dominant, or will this risk another internal conflict?
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are giving Lebanon another chance. They are committing to providing financial aid and political support, signaling a desire to bring Lebanon back into the Arab fold, free from Iranian influence. But their patience is not unlimited. If Hezbollah regains its strength and Aoun and his government can’t deliver on his promises, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are unlikely to extend another hand.
Tareq Alotaiba has 12 years of experience in economic policy, foreign affairs, and national security with the Abu Dhabi and UAE Federal governments. An Abu Dhabi native, he is currently pursuing a master’s degree in Security Studies at Georgetown University.