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The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency will shape politics in Latin America this year, prominent analysts said.
Experts believe the incoming US leader — who has vowed to impose tariffs upon taking office — is the biggest risk facing the region, where several countries rely on the US as their biggest export market.
SIGNALS
Trump’s return generates uncertainty for often volatile region
Trump’s threats of tariffs on Latin America are viewed as one of the greatest risks posed by the incoming US president, Brian Winter, Editor-in-Chief of Americas Quarterly, wrote. On the one hand, Trump’s Cabinet is “unusually” filled with officials who know the region well, including his pick for Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On the other, Trump has already signaled he is willing to challenge even reliable allies, such as his threat in December to take back the Panama Canal. Beyond Trump, Latin American countries will also have to contend with an increasingly volatile climate, stronger cartels, and weakening economic growth, he said.
Argentina is in Trump’s good graces, whereas Mexico may be most vulnerable
The biggest winner of a second Trump term will likely be Argentina’s President Javier Milei: Trump, who called Milei his “favorite president,” has expressed admiration for Milei’s cost-cutting measures to tame Argentina’s hyperinflation. Trump could help Milei court foreign investors, or even agree a free trade agreement between the two countries — something Milei has indicated he would pursue, Strategy International wrote. By contrast, Mexico — the economy of which relies heavily on US trade — is under pressure to crack down on migration, as well as the flow of illegal fentanyl and Chinese counterfeit goods to placate Trump. The incoming president has vowed to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Mexico should it fail to meet his demands.