Washington, DC

1. Prediction markets woo GOP
2. Trump pressures Iran
3. Board of Peace meets
4. SOTU shutdown?
5. Dems’ SOTU alternative
6. Most voters back solar
7. Russia sanctions reboot
8. New Collins attack ad

PDB: Hassett vs. New York Fed

Trump in Georgia … Oil prices rise on Iran war fears … BBC: UK’s Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested

Prediction markets face challenge on Hill

Prediction markets may have won over the Trump administration — but swaying Congress won’t be so easy, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. Firms like Kalshi and Polymarket want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s assertion of power this week to stick. But Republicans from states with gambling bans, brick-and-mortar casinos, and Native American tribes could join Democrats in pushing back. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman, R-Ark., told Semafor last week that his panel “will be visiting with [CFTC Chair Mike] Selig” as Congress tries “to figure out what the path forward is.” “This is an area that just caught fire,” Boozman said. “But there is concern; it’s the Wild West. There’s not much regulation.” He added that “probably at some point, either from a regulatory standpoint or Congress stepping in and passing some sort of law, it does need to be cleaned up.”

Trump turns up the heat on Iran

The US ramped up pressure on Iran, sending its largest concentration of air power to the Middle East since 2003. Two aircraft carriers and dozens of land-based planes have moved to the Gulf, enough to wage “a sustained, weekslong air war against Iran,” The Wall Street Journal reported. President Donald Trump has demanded Tehran give up its nuclear efforts — negotiators met this week but the White House said the two sides were “still very far apart” — though it is unclear whether Trump’s aim is to destroy Iran’s nuclear program or overthrow the regime. Iran’s leaders, meanwhile, face internal pressure: Memorial services for the thousands killed in a recent crackdown sparked fresh protests and renewed government violence.

Trump’s Board of Peace set to meet

Trump will convene a meeting of his new “Board of Peace” today in Washington, and will announce more than $5 billion in pledges from member states. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that more than 20 countries are planning to attend today’s meeting, which will be chaired in part by Trump before he departs for Georgia for a domestic economy-focused speech. The billions in pledges, according to the White House, will go towards rebuilding and other efforts in Gaza, where the administration is still trying to execute on its delicate multi-step peace plan. Thursday’s event is unlikely to settle questions over the board’s long-term aims. Some major European countries are skipping the meeting, and on Tuesday the Vatican declined to join the board (a move Leavitt called “deeply unfortunate”). Indonesia’s president will be there, as he also hopes for a trade deal.

— Shelby Talcott

Shutdown to stretch into State of the Union

The Department of Homeland Security shutdown is highly likely to stretch to at least 10 days at this point — and there’s a really good chance that Trump will give his State of the Union address with the department still shuttered, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. Republicans say Democrats have not backed off their initial demands for immigration enforcement changes and Democrats see no reason to think that Senate Majority Leader John Thune will call the Senate back from recess before next week. Monday will be the 10th day of the DHS shutdown — and the 57th overall day this Congress that some or all of the government has been without funding. One silver lining: The Senate is set to be in for five straight weeks starting Monday, precisely the type of marathon session that typically produces an outcome.

— Burgess Everett

Dem leaders quiet on SOTU alternative

Some progressives are choosing to skip the State of the Union and attend a rally on the Mall instead, but there’s no sense yet that Democratic leaders or large swaths of Democrats in Congress will join them. Semafor reached out to all the top Democratic leaders in the Senate and none said at this point they were skipping the SOTU or attending the rally. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said “his current plan is to attend” the SOTU as he urges Democrats to either attend and be quiet or skip it. And Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is assumed to be going in his role as leader … that is, until he isn’t. At least a dozen Democratic members of Congress — a small size of the broader pool — aim to attend the “People’s State of the Union” hosted by MoveOn and MeidasTouch.

— Burgess Everett and Morgan Chalfant

Senators eye Russia sanctions reboot

Will the Senate finally vote on a sanctions bill designed to further squeeze Russia by punishing Moscow’s trading partners amid the Ukraine war? There’s some renewed optimism among the legislation’s backers, though a vote isn’t assured. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a co-sponsor of the bipartisan sanctions proposal, told reporters that he’s hopeful for a vote after Senate Majority Leader John Thune committed to putting the reworked version to a vote when at least 60 senators support it. “We need to work out some of the remaining details,” said Blumenthal, who was on a trip to Odessa, Ukraine, with other Senate Democrats. Ukraine’s backers are demanding more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, as US-brokered talks about ending the war yield little progress. Europeans believe that “only by increasing the costs on Russia will they come to the table,” said Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.

— Morgan Chalfant

Trump voters support solar expansion

Trump voters overwhelmingly support greater use of solar power in the US, according to a poll by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway first shared with Semafor. The poll covered 1,000 voters in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Texas, and concluded that 83% of all voters, and 75% of Trump voters, agree that “solar energy should be used in the US to strengthen and increase our energy supply.” Majorities also agree that solar is key to making power more affordable, and to closing the electricity generation gap with China. Yet 74% of Trump voters also said they support scrapping solar tax credits, as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act did, which could make widespread solar adoption harder to achieve; a separate report today by the nonpartisan Rhodium Group found that solar investment dropped by $2 billion during Trump’s first year back in office.

Liberal group hits Collins on health care

A liberal group is spending $650,000 on television and digital ads in Maine hitting Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, for voting against a Democrat-only bill that allowed Medicare to negotiate drug prices and capped the cost of insulin. Unrig Our Economy, a 501(c)(4), is going up with the spot today, according to details shared first with Semafor, seeking to brand Collins as “another politician voting to protect Big Pharma” ahead of her reelection battle. It references her vote against the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which included the provisions on drug prices and insulin. The ad offers a glimpse of how Democrats plan to hit Republicans on the issue of health care, after bipartisan talks about extending enhanced Obamacare credits collapsed. Collins has worked on legislation to reduce insulin costs in the past, teaming up with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

— Morgan Chalfant

Semafor will host its annual Trust in Media Summit in Washington, DC on February 25, convening the industry’s most influential leaders for timely conversations on media credibility and the shifting dynamics of media power.

Semafor editors and reporters will be joined by leading voices in media, including: Brendan Carr, Chairman, FCC; Matt Murray, Executive Editor, Washington Post; Kristen Welker, Moderator, Meet the Press and Anchor, Meet the Press NOW; Mathias Döpfner, CEO, Axel Springer; Jacqui Heinrich, Senior White House Correspondent and Anchor of The Sunday Briefing on FOX News Channel; Maribel Pérez Wadsworth, President & CEO, Knight Foundation; Deborah Turness, Former CEO, BBC News; and Hamish McKenzie, Co-Founder & Chief Writing Officer, Substack. Request an invitation to join the conversation as it happens live.

Feb. 25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invite

Blindspot: Limbaugh and Stonewall

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump paid tribute to radio host Rush Limbaugh on the anniversary of his death earlier this week.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration faces a lawsuit over its decision to remove the Pride flag from the Stonewall National Monument in New York.

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: As President Trump heads to Georgia, prominent ally-turned-foe Marjorie Taylor Greene is expected to be out of state all day, according to a person familiar.

WaPo: The Human Rights Campaign, the US’ biggest LGBTQ advocacy group, is looking to overhaul how Democrats talk about trans rights to stave off expected attacks in the midterms.

Axios: “While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results, the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it’s built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base,” a Republican operative said of the party’s performance in recent state races.

White House

• The White House is tapping NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya as the acting CDC director. — NYT

Outside the Beltway

• The Trump administration released funding for the Gateway rail tunnel project, allowing it to go forward.
• New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the city will resume sweeping homeless encampments.

Inside the Beltway

• The US VIP fleet of aircraft is getting a new paint scheme.

Campaigns

• Jobs and Democracy PAC is spending $450,000 on a new ad supporting Alex Bores in New York’s 12th Congressional District’s Democratic primary for taking on “right-wing billionaires.” The PAC supports “sensible” AI regulation and is casting Bores as an ally against Big Tech. — Burgess Everett

Polls

• Nearly seven in 10 people polled by Reuters/Ipsos said that the Jeffrey Epstein files controversy shows that powerful Americans “are rarely held accountable for their actions.”

Economy

• White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett slammed a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study showing Americans and US companies are bearing the cost of tariffs.
• Federal Reserve officials were divided on the future outlook for interest rates during a meeting last month.

Environment

• Environmental and health groups sued over the EPA’s reversal of a finding that served as the basis for federal action on climate change.
• The EPA is also planning to loosen regulations on coal plants this week, allowing them to emit more harmful pollutants including mercury. — NYT

Foreign Policy

• A planned $11 billion weapons sale to Taiwan is up in the air over Trump administration concerns that approving the deal would derail President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing. — WSJ
• The US is withdrawing the last of its troops from Syria. — WSJ
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding secret talks with Cuban dictator Raul Castro’s grandson. — Axios

Health

• The FDA reversed a decision to pause a trial for Moderna’s flu vaccine.
• The agency also took down official warnings about unproven treatments for autism.
• Under a new rule, the VA will take into account whether treatments or medications improve a veteran’s condition when determining their disability ratings.

Media

• Four journalists covering the Trump administration’s deportations of migrants to Cameroon were detained on the job. — NYT
• Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $350 million investment in The New York Times.

Semafor DC Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Emily Ford, editor

Graph Massara and Marta Biino, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

A supporter of former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol reacts to the news that he was sentenced to life in prison for insurrection, in Seoul.