The News
Former President Donald Trump won decisively in Monday evening’s Iowa Republican caucuses, with more than 50% of the caucus votes. Ron DeSantis was around 30 points behind, with a narrow lead over Nikki Haley in third place. Business entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race.
U.S. media outlets concluded that Trump’s blowout victory pointed to an inevitable Biden-Trump rematch, while Chinese state media opined that for all its “drama,” the result of the 2024 presidential elections was unlikely to positively impact U.S.-China relations.
SIGNALS
The consensus from US media: Trump is the ‘inevitable’ nominee
“Iowa did nothing to suggest something other than the prewritten script,” The Washington Post’s Dan Balz wrote, noting that everything is pointing to a 2020 rematch this fall. A former Mitt Romney campaign aide told The Financial Times that GOP voters see Trump “as the inevitable nominee, and they’re already falling in line.” Politico wrote that given Trump’s “romp” in Iowa on Monday, he could “all but end the primary next week in New Hampshire.” The New York Times noted that though a tight race for second gives DeSantis and Haley “rationale” to continue, their campaigns are “likely to help Mr. Trump.” Haley’s possible victory in New Hampshire would give her “momentum” but “won’t guarantee anything for her as the primary heads back to states with more conservative, Trump-friendly ground,” according to Politico.
China enjoys US election ‘drama’ and Israel focuses on Trump’s Gaza war comments
Chinese state-owned tabloid The Global Times said Trump’s victory in Iowa reinforced the U.S.’ “populism tendency.” Experts told the outlet that while the Chinese public has “fun” witnessing the “drama” of the U.S. election, the country should not be under “any illusion that one particular candidate wins may lead to any significant positive adjustments in the US’ China policy.” The Times of Israel highlighted Trump’s claim that he would resolve the Israel-Hamas war “very fast,” noting that his Iowa victory turned his ongoing criminal and civil prosecutions into “a rallying cry that has galvanized his followers.” El País described Trump’s win as a “show of force” and that the former president “cleared any doubts about his leadership among the Republican Party rank and file.”
Europe fears isolation and global insecurity with Trump’s rise
The Belgian prime minister warned that a Trump White House could mean Europe will be “on its own” more than ever, while Germany’s industry association said that a Trump win could mean that the U.S. will isolate economically and that “Europe must prepare for a world in which we Europeans are more on our own.” Foreign diplomats are increasingly alarmed that America’s deepening partisan divide will adversely affect its ability to mediate global security, with one European diplomat telling Politico, “If all foreign policy issues become domestic political theater, it becomes increasingly challenging for America to effectively play its global role on issues that need long-term commitment and U.S. political capital.”