Nigeria’s third party candidate increases chances of a run-off

With the Feb. 25 poll looming, political insiders say Obi is unlikely to win the election because he lacks support in the country’s populous northern states. But they say he could force a run-off by taking millions of votes that otherwise would have gone to candidates of the two main parties. Obi could then play a pivotal role by endorsing one of the remaining two contenders.

Obi touched on leadership, economic policies and security during an hour-long speech at the Chatham House think-tank in London earlier this week which organizers said was watched by at least 670,000 people online. His address was frequently interrupted by cheers and lengthy applause from the roughly 250-strong audience. Around 100 people, many of whom hadn’t secured tickets for the sold out event, gathered outside to cheer and chant.

A survey by Nigeria’s NOI Polls in late December found that he is the frontrunner among decided voters, with 23% saying they would vote for him compared with 13% for Tinubu and 10% for Atiku.

But the key detail in the poll — which had a sample size of just 1,000 in a country of 200 million people — was the undecided voters and those who did not reveal their preferred candidate. They accounted for 29% and 23% respectively, giving credence to the idea that Obi’s popularity may mean there is no outright winner in the first round.

“With Obi amassing a coalition of disaffected voters in traditional PDP-voting and some APC constituencies, as well as fuelling a record number of new registrations, the establishment candidates are likely to lose significant vote share. A runoff is likely,” said Ikemesit Effiong, head of research with Lagos-based consultancy SBM Intelligence.

“The presence of a strong third party candidate with broad appeal in at least two geopolitical zones, the South East and South South, and substantial voting pockets in at least two others... upends the traditional political maths of Nigerian presidential politics.”