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Tim Scott just got to the helm of the Senate Republican campaign arm, and he’s already working on a feat that could make his job a lot easier.
The newly elected chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee met last week with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who’s emerging as the top potential GOP recruit for the midterm elections as the party seeks a challenger to Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga. Kemp is listening to Scott: The two met ahead of the inauguration and have been texting.
“We are looking for a way to make our Number One recruit a senator,” Scott told Semafor of Kemp. “He would be the best candidate in Georgia we’ve had for a very long time.”
Kemp is focused on his state’s legislative session and isn’t in a rush to decide on a Senate run, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Until he makes a decision, though, he’s likely to freeze the entire field in Georgia.
If Kemp does say yes — after patching up his relationship with Trump since their falling-out over the 2020 election — it would be an early boost for Scott as he settles into the Senate GOP’s top campaign role.
It was a job many of his colleagues were reluctant to entertain, given that Republicans will have to defend 22 seats next year. In addition to the critical task of recruiting challengers to Democrats like Ossoff and Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., Scott must navigate myriad primary threats to his incumbents, while working on deeper Republican structural issues and playing an integral role in selling Trump’s agenda to the public.
“It is a very hard cycle,” Scott told Semafor. “One office I said I never wanted in the Senate was to be the NRSC chairman. ‘There’s no way that I’ll ever do that.’ And I saw everybody walking away from it, and I had peace about stepping forward.”
In fact, Scott is a plum recruit himself for the challenging seat he now occupies. He’s the longest-serving Black senator in US history, a former presidential candidate and the new chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, which is a prime fundraising perch.
The South Carolinian will need every penny of what he raises: Scott estimated the top five Senate races in 2026 could cost $2 billion total.
He’s also resolutely on-message: Seasoned congressional reporters know that he long ago stopped holding forth in the halls with spontaneous interviews. But when he does talk, he’s usually got something to say.
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Scott’s political history features some contrasting influences. He won a House seat in the 2010 tea party wave, then got appointed to succeed conservative former Sen. Jim DeMint by former Gov. Nikki Haley. Running in 2024 as a forward-looking optimist, Scott was an early favorite of Republicans who had hoped to turn the page on Trump.
After his White House bid fizzled, Scott became a Trump surrogate and cemented his close ties to the president. It’s a good thing he did; the NRSC chair will have to work with Trump to nominate candidates and back incumbents who can win primaries and general elections.
Two years ago, former NRSC Chair Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., adopted a strategy of more forceful intervention in party primaries — usually with Trump’s support.
Daines said Scott is “the right leader at the right time” and deferred to him on future tactics. Other Republicans are hoping he picks up where Daines left off when it comes to aggressive involvement.
“Sen. Daines demonstrated how important candidate recruitment is and worked closely with President Trump — which I still think is going to be important to navigate contested primaries,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a former NRSC chair who is up for reelection in 2026 and could face a primary.
In two states more purple than Cornyn’s, incumbent GOP senators are already facing a political balancing act ahead of their re-election runs. Maine Sen. Susan Collins voted against Pete Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Pentagon, while North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis supported Hegseth after keeping party leaders on their toes.
Collins and Tillis will face more tough votes soon, on the confirmations of Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Trump’s Cabinet. So will Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who is already facing a MAGA-friendly primary challenge from state treasurer John Fleming.
Scott isn’t sweating it.
“There are a lot of people that announce who don’t do things,” Scott said, making clear that he trusts Republican incumbents to make “really good decisions.”
He specifically praised Collins as a unicorn in deep blue New England, saying the NRSC will “invest heavily” on her behalf.
The View From Democrats
Across the aisle, Scott’s rivals are happy to count his challenges. David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Scott faces a “political minefield.”
“Tons of seats to defend, tough votes their incumbents will have to explain — and of course, Trump. And a traditional backlash against the party in power looming over every move they make,” he said.
Democrats run reliably ahead of Republicans in the candidate fundraising department; that’s critical money and goes much farther in the ad market than super PAC dollars.
Not to mention that several Democratic senators got re-elected in states Trump also won, leaving GOP candidates behind. Scott knows Republicans need to close that gap.
Burgess’s view
This is undeniably a tough cycle to lead the NRSC, but Scott has a few advantages.
The biggest one is his 53-seat majority to defend. Democrats need to net four seats to claw back the Senate, which means defending Ossoff, Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., and the rest of their incumbents — plus beating Collins, Tillis and two more Republicans in red states like Iowa, Texas, Alaska, Florida or Ohio.
And while it’s unlikely that every GOP incumbent can avoid a serious primary challenge, Scott has a laid-back demeanor that will be an asset in the coming months. Trump may get tempted or lobbied to stay neutral or support challengers, but Scott gets along with him.
He also knows the new Republican math.
“If President Trump is against you, it’s really difficult in our primaries. If he’s for you, it’s much easier,” Scott said, allowing that “there are some nuances” in a few states.
Notable
- Tillis, Cornyn, Cassidy and Sens. Lindsey Graham and Joni Ernst are all dealing with primary threats AP looked at.
- A recent poll showed Kemp ahead of Ossoff, but Ossoff beating other potential challengers handily, POLITICO reported.