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MIAMI — House Republicans convened here this week for a retreat that adds an exclamation point to an undeniable fact: Florida is the center of gravity in their party.
President Donald Trump shifted his home base here from New York back in 2019, and a GOP that’s reshaped in his image is now replete with ambitious politicians from his adopted state who could try to claim the MAGA mantle in future races. There’s Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz — and Rep. Byron Donalds, who’s eyeing a gubernatorial run next year that would further elevate his profile in the party.
The winner of that race might even stand a chance of succeeding Trump as the GOP’s future presidential nominee.
“Anybody who wins the Florida governor’s race, it puts them on a national stage,” said Rep. Carlos Giménez, R-Fla. “And if they do a good job, he or she does a good job, they’re all potential candidates for 2028 because, you know? I think a lot of the country is looking to Florida and what we’re doing here.”
Donalds, 46, isn’t publicly confirming his interest in succeeding the term-limited DeSantis. But he tamped down any suggestion that he could become a national party leader, or that the Florida governor’s race would shape the direction of the post-Trump Republican Party.
“I don’t think it’s about the future of MAGA,” he told Semafor. “It’s more about, you have to be aligned with MAGA and what MAGA is doing.”
Vice President JD Vance, an Ohioan, would of course enter the 2028 GOP primary as an instant frontrunner. But DeSantis, Rubio, Donalds and other Florida men still in their 40s and 50s stand to remain major figures in the party for multiple election cycles to come, if they can successfully leverage their roles under Trump into a bigger profile outside the Sunshine State.
If he runs for governor, Donalds also has the potential to capitalize on some of Trump’s incremental gains with Black voters in the 2024 election. While his decades-old charges for marijuana possession and bribery — later dismissed and expunged — could prove a liability in the race, his past also gives him a compelling personal narrative of redemption.
After all, another gubernatorial hopeful is former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, whose bid to become Trump’s attorney general fell apart thanks to a far more recent ethics investigation.
Gaetz has since launched a conservative media career, casting doubt on whether he’d pursue political office again; some party operatives see his recent controversy clearing a path for Donalds.
Donors are currently in wait-and-see mode and expect other GOP contenders to emerge, including Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez.
“You’re going to see a great governor’s race in Florida,” said Rep. Mike Haridopolos, R-Fla. “Byron Donalds, my dear friend, I think, is looking at the race, and others. Obviously, people like JD Vance, clearly people like Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, would all be powerful presidential candidates too.”
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The list of influential Florida Republicans in Trump’s second term goes on: Former state attorney general Pam Bondi is set to play that role nationally, while Reps. Cory Mills, Anna Paulina Luna and Kat Cammack are rising within the House GOP.
Mills is also looking at a Senate race in 2026, when newly appointed Florida GOP Sen. Ashley Moody would have to run again.
Lawmakers from the state attribute their bigger political profiles to rapid migration to Florida, the state’s fiscal posture and its lack of an individual income tax.
One thing’s for sure: A state once seen as purple and winnable by a well-positioned Democrat has been deep red ever since Trump’s first election. Rubio’s margin of victory in 2022 and Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s margin in 2024 were both in the double digits — Ohio saw closer statewide elections in both Vance’s 2022 race and the 2024 Senate contest.
“We have the most ‘based’ conservative legislators. Not just at the statehouse, but also at the federal level. I’d say that we’re politely pushing Texas out of the way,” Luna said.
Kadia’s view
It’s an open question whether anyone, including Vance, can inherit the loyalty Trump gets from his base. But no matter who steps up come 2028, Republicans are confident that the MAGA brand — and its close association with Florida — will continue to dominate in their party.
One thing I’m watching: The gap between the working-class voters who powered Trump back to the White House and the wealthier business figures his party is tapping for key races around the country.
Trump “proved that business accomplishments matter, and [voters] want can-do people,” Haridopolis said.
That trend, if it continues, could leave room for another Florida man to rise higher in the GOP: Sen. Rick Scott, a former business owner whom the party credits for revitalizing the state after he slashed budgets as governor.
The View From Ohio
In Ohio, Republicans are eager to bolster Vance. Ohio Rep. David Joyce thinks Vance has positioned himself well to be the GOP nominee.
“Anyone can challenge JD Vance, but he’s the man,” Joyce told Semafor. “He’s in the right position. He’s got the right instincts to be what I think would be a tremendous vice president now and a tremendous presidential candidate come 2028.”
Of course, the coveted Trump endorsement makes all the difference here and Vance, with his proximity to the president, will have an advantage.
Notable
- Florida “exports as many memes as it does oranges,” Politico Magazine noted in a look at the state’s culture arriving in the White House.
- A rundown of Florida gubernatorial hopefuls courtesy of USA Today Network.