The News
Democrats are welcoming Pete Buttigieg to his new home state of Michigan with what looks like an invitation to jump into its Senate race.
Party members in Michigan and D.C. are open to the idea of the former presidential candidate turned transportation secretary running for Senate less than three years after he moved to the Mitten. While Democratic leaders aren’t playing favorites yet in the race to replace Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. — and they may decide not to at all — Buttigieg starts with a statistical advantage that could prove formidable.
In a poll for Blueprint that’s circulating with Michigan politicos this week, Buttigieg was the best-liked potential candidate among likely Democratic primary voters, with 77% viewing him favorably. Attorney General Dana Nessel, who was born and educated in the state, drew favorable views from 72% of the potential primary electorate. No other Democrat came close, and Buttigieg captured 40% in a potential primary.
“He has high name ID. And probably, from his previous run for president, also has got a network of fundraising. I would certainly expect he’d be able to raise a lot of money. So certainly he’d be very strong,” Peters told Semafor.
Buttigieg is also a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., which opens him to likely carpetbagging attacks from his rivals. One Democratic campaign strategist said “I don’t think anyone’s naive about the fact that this could become an issue,” but added that Buttigieg’s goodwill with the party could “mitigate any of the negatives of being a more recent transplant.”
Democrats can’t afford to get it wrong: Michigan is one of Senate Republicans’ top targets in 2026, and Trump won the state last year for the second time in three elections. Buttigieg hasn’t yet decided on the race to replace the retiring Peters, but no matter what he chooses, he’s also likely to stay on the party’s short list for the 2028 presidential race.
On the GOP side of the race, last year’s Senate-bid loser Rep. Mike Rogers is looking at another run. National Republican Senatorial Campaign Chair Tim Scott of South Carolina told Semafor in a recent interview that “Georgia and Michigan are realistic opportunities for us to pick up.”
And Peters made clear that Buttigieg could have stiff competition for the Democratic nomination. There are “a number of strong candidates that could potentially get into the race,” he said, while noting that Buttigieg’s husband Chasten “was born and raised in Michigan and has family connections there.”
“He’s lived in Michigan,” Peters said of Pete Buttigieg. “Obviously he’d still have to address [residency], he’d still have to talk about it. I wouldn’t think that would be a problem.”
Nessel, state senator Mallory McMorrow and Reps. Haley Stevens and Hillary Scholten are all potential Senate candidates. Scholten conspicuously noted last week that “Michigan is the only place I’ve ever called home.”
One former member of Congress from Michigan alluded to tension already emerging over Buttigieg’s recent transplant status, telling Semafor that “there are some potential candidates who are undermining Pete a little by pushing the newcomer narrative.”
Know More
Buttigieg relocated to Traverse City, Mich., in 2022 with Chasten and two adopted children. He explained the move from South Bend, where he had been mayor for eight years, as the right one for his family, with no political implications.
“You could not have picked a better state in the union to become a resident of,” Nessel told Buttigieg at an infrastructure funding event where he first discussed the move.
But Democratic lawmakers and operatives instantly saw the potential for Buttigieg to plant roots in a swing state — and the limits of staying in Indiana, which has not voted for a Democrat statewide since 2012. Still, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand of New York said it’s too early to discuss specific candidates.
“No Republican has won a Senate race in Michigan in 30 years, and Democrats are confident we will have a strong candidate who will be successful in this race,” said David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the DSCC.
Buttigieg’s national reputation could be an asset in any Senate campaign, as could his dexterity on the air as one of a few Democrats to regularly appear on Fox News.
His appearances throughout Michigan to announce billions of dollars in new federal funding for infrastructure projects also endeared him to many Democrats, as did his willingness to campaign for Democrats up and down the ballot.
He said at one 2022 rally that he wanted the party to win so “my son and daughter [can] grow up in the best possible state.”
“Never before have we invested so much into America’s aging infrastructure, and that was all led by him,” said Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar, who said he was neutral on the race but encouraged Buttigieg to run. “The problems are the problems. And it doesn’t take 10 years to know what the problems are.”
That’s provided Democratic primary voters don’t look at his Biden administration service as a drag in a general election, with Republicans prepared to spend big against him.
Joanna Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for the NRSC, said “it’s difficult to imagine a state Donald Trump just won on the mandate he’d revitalize America’s auto industry turn around two years later to elect the very carpetbagger who spent his tenure as one of the worst transportation secretaries ever attacking that same auto industry.”
David and Burgess’ View
It sounds like a joke to some Republicans: A Hoosier with thin ties to Michigan might bigfoot local Democrats out of their Senate race. It’s also not a guaranteed recipe for general election victory. As much as Democrats adore Buttigieg, skeptical voters in the state have pop-quizzed him about the Detroit Lions.
Rogers understands the risk of changing residences all too well; he narrowly lost last year’s Senate race after taking flack from Democrats for moving to Florida after his House term ended, then moving back to Michigan to run. (He was born and educated in the state and served in elected office there for 20 years.)
But for now, Buttigieg is a clear Democratic juggernaut coming into this race, and the party believes the carpetbagging attack alone can’t sideline him. At this very early moment, it might be his nomination to lose.
Room for Disagreement
California Sen. Adam Schiff, a vice chair of the party’s campaign committee, offered a different take on the field, saying Democrats have a strong chance of holding Peters’ seat no matter who enters the primary.
“We have the good fortune of a deep bench in Michigan. So I’m confident we’ll have a very strong candidate,” Schiff said.
Notable
- In the Detroit News, Melissa Nann Burke and Craig Mauger look at the decisions Michigan Democrats are making now: to run for Senate, run for governor, or stay in their jobs.
- In the AP, Joey Cappelletti and Thomas Beaumont report that Rogers is getting into the race after his near-miss last year, and 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon is considering it.