Hadley’s view
Arab states have no alternative plan for Gaza — yet.
Last week, I described President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza as, in hindsight, obvious: A real estate mogul trying to solve a seemingly intractable 60-year-old conflict with a deal. But the sheer audacity — and speed — of his proposals have left America’s Middle East allies with whiplash.
And they’re not alone.
Consider what the past 48 hours have meant for Europe. Trump’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for negotiations on Ukraine, but without consulting the Ukrainians. And with just hours to go before the start of Europe’s premier security conference in Munich, Trump’s new defense secretary made it clear that European defense should be led by Europe, not the US. It’s the diplomatic equivalent of a blitzkrieg. One senior diplomat in Munich told me that he and his colleagues are now in “speak softly” mode, lest they attract unwanted lightning.
“What we struggle with is the big policy shifts that we see from Washington,” Minister of State and UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba told me this week at Dubai’s World Governments Summit. “A long time ago, when I first got there, the policy shifts used to be mainly on domestic policies... but now we see these massive shifts on foreign policy as well. Now we’re seeing it on culture and social issues. So, I think the more the US swings, the more [it] will cause uncertainty and uncertainty is not good.”
It’s not only that Trump’s plan ignores the impact an influx of more than two million Palestinian refugees would have on Egypt and Jordan, two countries the US has spent decades stabilizing. It also sidelines the region’s role in determining its own destiny. While Israel can’t allow a future terrorist threat from Gaza, the US’ closest allies in the region also can’t absorb the instability this plan would create.
“I worry that we sometimes, whether on purpose or by accident, try to divide the world into camps,” Al Otaiba told me. “I think we should be focused on whoever believes in a common vision for the future.”
Then there’s the question of how, when, and by whom a new Gaza might be built. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made it clear that they are prepared to play a role in the Middle East’s future, committing to working with the new governments in Syria and Lebanon to rebuild those countries. But will they invest in a Gaza that doesn’t include the people who actually live there?
For now, no clear alternative has emerged. Egypt said it’s working on a “comprehensive vision” for a reconstruction of Gaza that would keep Palestinians on their land.
“I don’t see an alternative to what’s being proposed,” Al Otaiba said in Dubai. “I really don’t. And so, if someone has one, we’re happy to discuss it. We’re happy to explore it, but it hasn’t surfaced yet.” He later added: “We do not support forced displacement of two million Palestinians from their homes.”
Still, as a 16-year veteran of Washington politics, Al Otaiba remains confident the Gulf will figure something out.
“We’ve had challenges with previous administrations where we’ve had very, very tough conversations in the past,” says Al Otaiba. “It’s always about trying to find a solution and trying to find common ground. And right now, this particular set of issues is challenging, but we’ll find a way through.”
Hadley Gamble is Al Arabiya’s Chief International Anchor, and a former anchor with CNBC covering energy, politics, and business.