Can Beijing convince Europe to ditch a Trump-led US?

“Beijing couldn’t have hoped for a better moment” to visit Europe as the bloc grapples with the possibility of a second term for former President Donald Trump, Stuart Lau wrote for Politico’s China Watcher newsletter. Europe has been particularly spooked by Trump’s comments that appeared to encourage Russia to attack NATO countries who weren’t reaching defense spending targets. When Trump was in power last time, “Beijing and Europe were in constant flirtation mode,” Lau wrote, and China encouraged the EU to adopt “strategic autonomy” from Trump’s isolationist economic and security model. This pushed Germany to deepen its dependency on auto and 5G technology trade with China, got Italy to sign the Belt and Road Initiative, and the EU to score a massive Chinese investment deal just days before President Joe Biden took office. But current geopolitics could muddle China’s ambitions: the EU is for the first time considering sanctioning Chinese firms for helping Russia circumvent sanctions and buy dual-use goods.

The EU is in a current green boom, installing a record number of solar panels last year, Reuters reported. But about 95% of the new panels and parts are reportedly from China, and European panel manufacturers are in crisis mode as they face shut downs. France and Germany — once a united front for EU initiatives — are now at odds over Beijing’s role in the energy transition, according to the South China Morning Post. France, which is largely self-reliant with nuclear energy, supported EU measures to curb the imports of Chinese panels, much to the dismay of Germany who is heavily dependent on cheap Chinese panels. The bill ultimately failed. France also backed an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese-made electric vehicles, leaving Berlin fuming over German firms being hit by import duties. “There is no such thing as a Franco-German couple any more,” a French diplomat told SCMP, referring to China as one of the main points of contention.

Brussels and Beijing will likely have to iron out China’s role in mediating global crises. In the Middle East, Europe is now largely considered an irrelevant player and negotiator as the bloc squabbles over the appropriate response to Israel’s Gaza counteroffensive, China’s Observer Network argued. Chinese President Xi Jinping is capitalizing on this division, and hoping to convince the Global South that it can “lead non-Western responses to contentious issues such as Gaza,” analyst Neil Thomas told the German Marshall Fund’s China Global podcast. Before his scheduled Europe trip, Wang Yi visited northern Africa where Beijing’s “willingness to take a more vocal, pro-Palestinian position” is giving the country inroads for investment opportunities in the region, according to Dispatch Risk Advisory, a security consulting firm.