Hadley’s view
US Vice President JD Vance’s tough talk at this year’s Munich Security Conference left European allies apoplectic. But for Arab delegations — still unwilling or unable to challenge the administration’s stance on Gaza — it provided the perfect cover as the bulk of Washington’s attention shifts to Iran and Ukraine, with Saudi Arabia being the central hub for negotiations on two of the toughest issues facing the Trump administration.
Over the weekend in Germany, background discussions I had with US officials laid out President Donald Trump’s priorities in the Middle East: securing the safe return of Israeli hostages, ensuring Israel’s sovereignty and right to defend it, continuing the dismantling of Iran’s regional proxies, and putting an end to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions — once and for all.
During the early days of Trump’s first term, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE enjoyed relatively equal access to the Oval Office, with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner acting as the key man managing relationships with Gulf partners. Abu Dhabi led on the Abraham Accords, Riyadh coordinated OPEC+ to stabilize oil markets, and Doha maintained close contacts with opposition forces across the region. No single relationship seemed to outweigh another.
This time is different.
Saudi Arabia has emerged as the definite counterweight to Israel. To put it another way: If the president sees Israel as the center of American influence in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is the US’ essential partner. And it makes sense. Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Gulf, the de facto leader of OPEC, and a regional power with the financial and political heft to shape events across the Middle East.
Despite tensions over Trump’s Gaza Riviera plans and the push to bring the kingdom into the Abraham Accords, Washington has demonstrated that Riyadh remains a preferred partner on a range of strategic issues.
So when can we expect a call from Washington to Tehran?
“If there are conversations to be had, he is going to have those conversations,” Republican Senator Joni Ernst told me at the Munich Security Conference, referring to Trump.
She also made clear that a more aggressive response from Trump on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea is coming.
“I think [a response] should be led by the countries in the region. The problem is… if they were willing to step up without American leadership, it would have been done by now. So I think we do have to have outside shapers and influencers, and we see that now.”
For now, Riyadh is where the real conversations are happening. Washington may be redrawing the map, but Saudi Arabia is brokering the deal.
Hadley Gamble is Al Arabiya’s Chief International Anchor, and a former anchor with CNBC covering energy, politics, and business.