The News
The race to succeed Mitch McConnell was getting ugly even before he announced he’ll retire.
GOP hopefuls are already bludgeoning each other ahead of a potentially crowded 2026 primary in deep-red territory — jostling that will only get more intense after McConnell announced Thursday that he won’t seek reelection. And some Republicans are worried that Kentucky’s popular Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, could enter the race at the last minute.
Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is using Beshear’s 2023 victory over Daniel Cameron to bash his Senate rival Cameron as a proven loser. But Barr is taking his own heat from the conservative Club for Growth, which is running spots saying he was raised with a “silver spoon” and “hasn’t earned” a shot at a Senate seat.
Then there’s Nate Morris, a businessman positioning himself as a Republican outsider. He’s toying with the idea of running either for Senate or governor in 2027 — to the annoyance of Kentucky politicos. Morris, too, is getting whacked for his business record.
“People have anticipated” a fight for a seat McConnell’s held since 1985, said Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. “I guess they’re getting the itch.”
Of course, all the candidates are distancing themselves from McConnell, whose icy relationship with President Donald Trump has rendered him a pariah in party primaries. Still, McConnell has a long record of turning his state from blue to red. His lone recent blemish came in the 2023 governor’s race, where Beshear’s win is causing some skepticism among Trump allies about Cameron’s Senate prospects, according to a longtime adviser to the president.
Cameron, an ex-McConnell staffer, is widely seen as the heir apparent to the former Senate Republican leader, whose exit from Congress next year was expected. For all Barr’s criticism of Cameron’s ties to McConnell, the House Republican is also a former intern for the senator.
In a statement to Semafor, Morris whacked Barr and Cameron — who announced his Senate run soon after McConnell’s retirement speech — for not being hard enough on the incumbent.
“Mitch McConnell stuck his thumb in the eye of President Trump with the votes against his nominees, and none of the career politicians looking at this race were courageous enough to call him out for his betrayal,” Morris said.
“That’s why I’m seriously considering running for office,” he added. “The last thing Kentucky needs is to elect a puppet of Mitch McConnell to the US Senate.”
Morris is talking with Trump and Vice President JD Vance-aligned operatives ahead of his decision; he can self-fund against Barr and Cameron, who already have fundraising networks.
One Kentucky Republican strategist told Semafor that Morris’ business record is fertile ground for rivals: “As soon as Nate’s background is examined, folks will find a dumpster just waiting to be ignited.”
Know More
Senate races in Kentucky are typically deep red affairs, but Beshear’s enduring popularity is a wild card. It’s not unrealistic to forecast a competitive election if the governor were to enter the race: Doug Jones, a less well-known Democrat, claimed a Senate seat in Alabama in 2017.
Yet Beshear is sending strong signals of disinterest to Senate-race suitors back in Washington.
“He loves his job serving the people of Kentucky, and he wouldn’t trade a single day as governor for six years in the Senate. His electoral focus in 2026 will be electing Democratic governors across the country as DGA Chair,” said a person close to Beshear.
The young governor, a popular surrogate for the party, also could run for president in 2028.
If Beshear doesn’t run, the Senate race will be less about electability and more about winning over Trump. McConnell and Trump’s up-and-down relationship figures to be a focal point.
Morris set the tone by attacking any Republican candidate who politely awaited a retirement announcement from McConnell, who turned 83 on Thursday.
“If you’re asking for permission from Mitch McConnell to run for the Senate here in Kentucky, then you shouldn’t be running in the first place,” he said.
Donald Trump Jr. praised that sentiment and warned potential candidates not to “bother reaching out to me unless you’re willing to publicly oppose Mitch McConnell like this.” This week, Barr did an interview on conservative influencer Benny Johnson’s show, trying to distance himself from McConnell.
“Unlike others who are talking about running for Mitch McConnell’s seat … I did not ever serve on the payroll of Mitch McConnell,” he said.
A consultant for Cameron hit back, pointing out that Barr has previously called McConnell his mentor and suggesting Barr’s MAGA turn is disingenuous: “It’s sort of silly to like, all of a sudden, put on the red hat.”
Cameron, a former state attorney general, has a significant lead over Barr in early polling.
“Donald Trump’s the most dominant personality, and if he were to choose someone in this campaign, it would … all but guarantee their victory,” longtime GOP strategist Scott Jennings told Semafor.
Paul said he will stay neutral in the primary, and it’s unclear if McConnell would weigh in on the race — or if any candidate would want him to. McConnell declined comment for this story.
McConnell’s retirement “will be a paradigm shift in Kentucky for Republicans,” Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told Semafor. Massie hasn’t shown interest in the Senate race yet.
With the field packed already, another ambitious Kentucky Republican — House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, who lost a gubernatorial primary in 2015 — told Semafor he’s entertaining another run for governor in 2027. Without Beshear on the gubernatorial ballot, it could be a GOP pick-up.
But first, Comer said, he plans to run for his congressional seat in 2026.
The View From Trey Grayson
Kentucky’s Senate seats don’t come open often. And the resulting campaigns can be unpredictable, as Trey Grayson knows. Paul upset the former Kentucky secretary of state in a 2010 Senate primary, which may explain why Grayson is intrigued by Morris.
“Trump’s an outsider. Outsiders are doing pretty well,” Grayson told Semafor. “There is this interesting lane for Morris to say ‘I’m a business guy. I’m not a career politician.’”
Kadia and Burgess’ View
Trump will be closely watching the race to replace McConnell, who’s perhaps his biggest Senate GOP antagonist left in office. Hence all the early activity among Republican hopefuls, who never know when or where Trump might come down.
But going hard against McConnell to win over Trump has its drawbacks for Senate contenders, since the former GOP leader maintains major sway in Kentucky. That makes it tricky for Barr and Cameron to stay in both McConnell and Trump’s good graces.
Even Morris could go too far and draw the ire of McConnell allies.
Notable
- Barr is privately telling people he’s running for Senate, per CBS.
- Before making it official, Cameron all but revealed that he’s aiming for McConnell’s seat to the Lexington Herald-Leader.