The Scoop
Legislative dysfunction on Capitol Hill is fueling doubts among U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific about Washington’s commitment to deterring China in the region’s strategic waterways and archipelagos, according to correspondence seen by Semafor.
The governments of three island nations — the Republic of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Republic of the Marshall Islands — all renewed last year their formal partnership-agreements with the U.S., known as Compacts of Free Association (COFA). These provide the Pentagon with expansive regional military and logistics bases and rights in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and financial assistance. These countries would all play a critical role in supporting the U.S. military in any conflict with China over Taiwan through their presence in the waterways the Pentagon calls the “Corridor of Freedom.”
Congress was supposed to ratify the COFAs by last October, when the previous agreements expired. But disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over the timing of a vote, and the legislative vehicle through which to stage it, has caused the agreements to lapse. And leaders of these countries are growing increasingly concerned about the impact of the stalled vote on their economies and populations.
“Although we understand the delay in the legislation’s approval, it has generated uncertainty among our peoples,” the presidents of the three countries wrote to the U.S. Senate’s leadership on February 6, in a letter seen by Semafor. “As much as they identify with and appreciate the United States, which formerly governed our islands, this has resulted in undesirable opportunities for economic exploitation by competitive political actors in the Pacific.”
U.S. and Asian officials believe Congress will eventually ratify the new COFAs, as they have so far received bipartisan support. But the delays, and the seeming congressional indifference to these countries, could play into China’s hands over the long term as Beijing’s competition with the U.S. heats up, these officials warn.
Pacific island leaders say China regularly seeks to portray Washington as an unreliable strategic partner. And Beijing has been wooing countries such as Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands with increased investment, tourism, and gaming licenses in an attempt to break up the COFA states as well as other U.S. security arrangements in the region. China is also seeking to end many of the countries’ diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
“So this is the type of danger that we’re running into if we don’t, expeditiously and purposely get this second part of these agreements done,” said Arnold Palacios, governor of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, at a security conference in Washington last week. The Northern Mariana Islands are a formal U.S. territory.
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Jay’s view
The Biden administration has made bolstering U.S. military alliances against China in the Indo-Pacific one of its primary foreign policy objectives since taking office in 2021. But the splits and discord in Congress, which have also threatened U.S. military aid to Ukraine and Israel, is also spilling over into Asia policy.
Beijing and its allies appear increasingly focused on breaking the island-chain defense architecture the Pentagon developed during the Second World War against imperial Japan. These include strings of nations, islands and remote atolls through which the U.S. can send supplies and establish beachheads against Chinese military power.
Part of Beijing’s strategy is to fulfill its stated aim of reclaiming Taiwan. But China has also been increasingly challenging Philippine claims in the South China Sea, particularly islands in the Spratly chain. (The U.S. is treaty-bound to defend Philippine territory and military assets.) The Pentagon has also been alarmed in recent weeks by North Korea’s threats to take South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea.
China is employing both military and economic coercion to try and bend the will of the Pacific island nations. The president of Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr., told Semafor last year that the Chinese navy had been illegally mapping his country’s maritime borders. And Beijing also ordered the cessation of Chinese tourists visiting the country after Palau maintained its diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The congressional gridlock that threatens the COFA states could have far greater ramifications for U.S.‘s Asia strategy. “It is hard to overstate the damage this can cause to U.S. defense architecture in the Pacific and the United States’ reputation across the region – not to mention the lives of the people living in America’s closest defense allies,” wrote the regional expert, Cleo Paskal, this month.
The View From Washington
The Biden administration has been pressing Congress to approve the COFA agreements, citing China’s ability to exploit the financial challenges these American allies face. U.S. defense strategists are also concerned that Beijing and Pyongyang could seek to take advantage of the Pentagon’s focus on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to move against U.S. allies in Asia.
“We’re very concerned that we don’t have a budget” for the COFA countries, said Pentagon spokeswoman, Sabrina Singh, this month. “We are concerned that a continued delay could leave these partners vulnerable to influence and coercion.”
Notable
- China has been attempting to block the Philippine navy from resupplying its troops on the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.