The News
Iran has expanded its stockpile of near-weapons grade uranium by more than 50% since December, defying international pressure to rein in its nuclear program.
“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such material, is of serious concern,” the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote in a quarterly report sent to member states.
The IAEA said Tehran had increased its accumulation of enriched uranium sevenfold since December, Bloomberg reported.
US President Donald Trump announced a so-called maximum pressure campaign on Iran earlier this month, and is “committed to ensuring the regime never gets a nuclear weapon,” National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said. “He has also made clear he is open to talks with Iran.”
Israel’s foreign minister warned of using a “military option” against Iran if diplomatic efforts to stop Tehran’s nuclear program failed. “In order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table,” Gideon Sa’ar told Politico, adding that failure to do so would start a “nuclear race in the Middle East with Egypt, Saudis, Turkey.”
SIGNALS
Iran tries to ‘raise the threat level’
Increasing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium is a way for Iran to “raise the threat level without trying to necessarily provoke Washington,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran program, told Semafor, adding that while Tehran could use it as “leverage” against America’s “maximum pressure” campaign, it is also a sign of the nation’s abiding interest in “the ultimate weapon.” The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Tehran this week, targeting its oil sector and drone production. Iranian officials have sent contradictory messages about their desire to negotiate, with Tehran’s top diplomat saying, “there is no possibility of direct negotiations with the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied.”
Trump couples ‘maximum pressure’ with a desire for a deal
Donald Trump has said he is “torn about” reverting to maximum pressure on Tehran, calling the policy “very tough on Iran.” Reports that the US might cooperate with Israel to “blow Iran to smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” Trump said on Truth Social in early February, adding that he would prefer a “Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement.” “The trick is to identify principles that will make a deal both viable and desirable,” a Carnegie Endowment researcher argued, including giving up on ambitions of forcing Iran to unwind its nuclear program entirely. Trump will likely also need to offer “substantial sanctions relief,” two former US officials argued in War on the Rocks, but negotiations must be coupled with increased pressure to force Tehran to take the talks seriously.
Israel is likely to strike Iran’s nuclear program, US believes
US intelligence believes Israel may attempt a strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months, The Washington Post reported, a move some senior Israeli officials believe the Trump administration would likely support. Tehran has reportedly put its defense systems on high alert due to fears of a possible Israeli attack, warning that it could retaliate by targeting US bases and its allies in the region. Experts are divided about whether Israel would attack Iran without US support, and some question if it has the ability to thoroughly destroy Iran’s fortified nuclear facilities without large bunker-buster munitions, which Washington has not given Israel so far.