The News
Mike Lawler, eyeing a New York gubernatorial run, is deep in a critical calculation: Exactly how close to Donald Trump can he afford to get?
Trump ran stronger in New York than any GOP presidential candidate since 1988, but Lawler is one of only three House Republicans who represent districts that Kamala Harris won in November. And 65% of his state’s voters disapprove of the president.
So does he want Trump’s endorsement?
“An endorsement would be fine,” Lawler told Semafor during a wide-ranging interview in his congressional office this week. “But ultimately, it is a function of New Yorkers making the determination as to who the next governor is.”
Asked if Trump would be a drag on his candidacy, Lawler replied, “I have shown myself to be extremely independent and certainly bipartisan,” and added that “the president, obviously, you know, has his supporters. He also has his detractors, as we all do.”
Lawler has not decided on a gubernatorial run, but the relative unpopularity of incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul gives him a big opportunity. While Hochul styles herself as a leader of the anti-Trump resistance, Lawler is showing little appetite for breaking from the president for now as he prepares to possibly build on Trump’s gains in the state.
Trump’s tariffs, for example, are causing friction for New York. The threat of the levies prompted Ontario premier Doug Ford to vow a 25% tax on power it sends to three states, including Lawler’s. But the congressman is still inclined to support Trump’s decision-making.
“Tariffs play a role insofar as forcing fairer economic trade, as well as changing behavior,” Lawler said. “The president has put tariffs in place on Mexico and Canada in large measure because of the deadly flow of fentanyl and illegal immigration, and their economies are very reliant on the US economy.”
Meanwhile, Lawler is showing clear signs of interest in the governorship. He was the keynote speaker at the Erie County Republican Party’s Lincoln Dinner last month — which just happens to be in Hochul’s backyard.
“He did a great job,” Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-N.Y., told Semafor of his performance at the dinner. “He’s out there kind of testing the waters.”
And if he decides to run, he’ll have an opportunity to exploit Democratic divisions. Hochul faces potential primary threats from both her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, and Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y.
Lawler called it “very telling” that Delgado “thinks she is so incompetent that he needs to consider primary[ing] her.”
Know More
As soon as you enter Lawler’s office, you get a hint of his aspirations in the form of a framed poster of the “Tappan Zee Bridge.” In 2017, it was renamed the Gov. Mario M. Cuomo Bridge, after a Democrat who previously held the seat Lawler is now eyeing.
Whether he or any other Republican can win a statewide election in New York is an unanswered question, though. Lawler hopes his self-styled bipartisan image and cratering perceptions of New York’s governance under Democrats gives him the space to do the seemingly impossible.
“The challenges in New York still persist because of incompetent leadership and one-party Democratic rule that has forced the state in a downward spiral,” he said.
Another wild card: Lawler’s relationships with Cuomo’s son, Andrew, and New York City Mayor Eric Adams — who may end up running against each other in the mayoral primary. Lawler is putting distance between himself and Adams, a former Republican.
“Look, his policy decisions as mayor run counter to … Republicans on many issues,” Lawler said of Adams. “Obviously, he talked a good game on crime. He talked a good game on immigration. But, you know, he did not effectuate that change.”
Lawler also bashed Cuomo freely in the interview: “He’s the one who signed cashless bail into law. He’s the one who signed congestion pricing into law. He’s the one who made New York a sanctuary state.”
Lawler gained prominence by flipping a Biden district in 2022 to take out Sean Patrick Maloney, the then-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He won due to redistricting, his own shrewd political acumen and Maloney’s dual role representing a suddenly competitive district while leading the campaign arm of the caucus.
Lawler is “very politically savvy. He knows how to run campaigns,” Democratic New York State Sen. James Skoufis, who served with him in the state legislature, told Semafor. “His tactics, as underhanded as they may be at times, have proven to be effective.”
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who challenged Lawler in 2024 and remains “friendly” with him, deemed him “by far the most cunning of the House freshmen who ran for reelection last cycle.”
Once in Washington representing the Westchester suburbs of New York City, he swiftly made a name for himself. In his first term, he and fellow New York Republican lawmakers pushed for an expulsion vote to remove ex-Rep. George Santos from office.
By the end of his freshman year, his priorities shifted to raising the cap on the state and local tax deduction passed in Trump’s 2017 tax bill. That issue is back on the table in 2025, but not in isolation.
Instead, Republicans’ tax cuts are now setting up potential cuts to Medicaid — a major political risk for some GOP members, especially those in Biden-won districts. Lawler is trying to thread the needle; he opposes a conservative suggestion to lower the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage from 50% to 45%, but backs work requirements.
“I don’t know why anybody would be opposed to work requirements for able-bodied people,” he said. “We’ll continue to make sure that we preserve these programs for those who need them and are entitled to them.”
The View From Republican Colleagues
Republicans privately grouse that Lawler is too often in the limelight, with long floor speeches and frequent TV appearances. But his colleagues also see him as a rising star.
“Mike is an ambitious guy,” Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., told Semafor. “He’s articulate on policy issues, and he’s not shy that he might have rubbed a couple of people the wrong way every now then — no big deal.”
Kadia’s view
No matter what Lawler chooses, he’ll face a difficult 2026. It’s been nearly 20 years since a Republican won a governor’s race in New York.
And if he decides to stay put, he’ll be one of the most vulnerable House Republicans. He’s already facing a well-connected Democratic opponent, Beth Davidson, who announced her candidacy last month.
Notable
- Lawler was part of a small group of GOP lawmakers to mildly criticize the Trump-Zelenskyy blowup in the Oval Office last week, per NPR.
- Lawler came under fire for questioning a local official’s citizenship status, highlighting immigration’s centrality in the state, as the local ABC7 reported.