The Scoop
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is expected to slow-walk the special election to replace Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, according to three people familiar with her thinking.
It’s the latest sign of gamesmanship over the House GOP’s threadbare majority; Stefanik was nominated to be US ambassador to the United Nations in November but has not been confirmed due to her party’s narrow margins. On the Republican side, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, isn’t in a hurry to fill the safe Democratic seat vacated because of Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death, either.
Republicans currently have a 218-214 edge, and with big votes on President Donald Trump’s agenda coming up, absolutely every seat matters. And Stefanik’s seat in particular is of huge interest.
It’s unclear how long Hochul will wait to call the special election. Refusing to set a date within the 10-day window once a vacancy occurs would invite Republican lawsuits, especially if she waits a considerable amount of time. Hochul could also push state Democrats to revive earlier legislation to delay the special election until November.
Even if Hochul moves to call the special election within the required time frame, it won’t take place until about three months after Stefanik’s seat is vacated.
Previously, Democrats in the New York state legislature proposed a measure to delay the special election to replace Stefanik until November. The decision to withdraw that bill in February was meant to allow Hochul room to negotiate with Trump on congestion pricing, according to two people familiar with the topic. But then Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy called for the end of the toll program, and Trump declared congestion pricing “DEAD” on his social media platform.
Under current New York law, once a vacancy occurs, the governor has 10 days to issue a proclamation for a special election, which must be held between 70-80 days from the date of the proclamation.
A spokesman for Hochul did not directly respond to a question about her hopes to delay the special election, but directed Semafor to previous statements made on the Democratic bill.
The Republican-controlled Senate has stalled Stefanik’s nomination due to concerns about the House GOP’s slim majority. Two other House seats in Florida are vacant and will be filled in April.
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Turner’s death also jolted the narrowly divided House. Abbott has the authority to schedule a special election for the date of the state’s next regularly-scheduled elections, which is May 3. But Abbott would have to do so by March 18, and candidates would have to declare by March 24 at 5 p.m., according to a Texas election code expert.
Abbott also has the discretion to call an emergency special election, or he could wait until 2026 to deprive Democrats of Turner’s historically blue seat.
“An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date,” a spokesperson with the governor’s office told Semafor in a statement.
Kadia’s view
This isn’t the first time a New York governor has considered holding up a special election.
New York Republicans sued then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, in 2019 after ex-GOP congressman Chris Collins resigned from his seat before pleading guilty to federal insider trading charges. The GOP filed a similar lawsuit in 2017 when Cuomo stalled the special election to replace GOP ex-congressman Michael Grimm.
The longer Hochul waits after Stefanik is confirmed, the more likely she’ll feel pressure from Republicans — and potentially, the New York voters Stefanik represents — to move to fill the seat. Hochul’s got her own political calculations too: She’s up for reelection next year.
Notable
- New York Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins told reporters the “governor would have to agree” before the state Senate could move forward with the bill to delay the special election to replace Stefanik.
- Democrats are almost certain to maintain the seat left vacant by Turner.
- New York Democratic leaders have already gotten behind a 48-year-old Lisbon, N.Y. dairy farmer as their candidate in the special election to fil Stefanik’s seat.