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Vice President JD Vance has serious momentum behind him toward the 2028 GOP nomination. His strongest opponent so far isn’t a person — it’s time.
With three-plus years to go in President Donald Trump’s second term, there’s an increasing consensus that Vance, who first ran for office only in 2022, will be the party’s post-Trump standard-bearer. But several connected Republicans quietly shared a competing view: It’s simply too early to say Vance has locked down Trump’s mantle for 2028.
After all, Trump has always enjoyed competition.
One person close to the administration said that Vance still has to “prove himself.” Another White House official said simply that “it’s too early” to determine who the next MAGA leader is.
“The logical conclusion is that it’s JD Vance. But I thought it was interesting the comment the president made about a month ago. ‘Well, not so fast,’” said one Senate Republican, referring to Trump’s avoidance of a public Vance endorsement last month.
Trump is in a unique position: He’s both at the peak of his power within the GOP and a lame duck. Vance is also not alone among ambitious young Republican politicians seeking to inherit Trump’s mantle. And the resulting tension is occasionally visible in public.
During a Monday night town hall on behalf of the GOP’s Wisconsin state judicial campaign, Donald Trump Jr. suggested Vance might not be the only option for the party’s next presidential nod.
“We actually have an opportunity to have an incredible path beyond my father, whether it’s JD Vance or some of the other talent that we’ve curated, right?” Trump Jr. said.
MAGA activist Charlie Kirk’s quick response: “I think we like JD. … Don’t we like JD, everybody?”
The open discussion of Vance’s future is particularly notable given Trump’s recent remarks about the “very capable” vice president. While Trump tapped Vance as Republican National Committee finance chairman on Tuesday, his lack of direct support raised eyebrows across the party.
Inside the administration, Vance is well-liked, and officials insist there’s nothing to be read into Trump’s slight. Though Vance piled on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in front of the press, he’s often played the workhorse behind the scenes, tackling projects like the sale of TikTok while helping wrangle congressional Republicans to support Trump’s agenda.
A group of younger, more populist Republicans are vocally advocating for Vance within the party as a future candidate who could cement the party’s realignment toward Trump. They argue Vance will win the nomination and likely steamroll over anyone who challenges him.
“JD Vance, to me, is the frontrunner. And the likely nominee in 2028,” said Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont. “Yes, it’s early in terms of his tenure as vice president. I think he’s earning the respect of the party and of the American people.”
Vance would almost certainly need to win a Trump endorsement to crowd out other rivals for 2028. The best way to win that nod will be to make Trump’s term as successful as possible by focusing on the job in front of him, rather than his future (which is how those close to Vance see it, too).
He’ll have plenty of distractions pulling at his attention, though — some of them possibly coming from Trump himself.
Vice President Mike Pence, for one, spent several years appearing to be in line to succeed Trump. Instead, their rift over Pence’s refusal to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s presidential election effectively ended the Hoosier’s run in Republican politics.
Vance boosters see little chance of a similar split happening this time around, given his and Trump’s current trajectory and harmony on big issues. Even so, nothing is impossible with Trump.
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Trump Jr. was among the Republicans pushing for Vance’s ascension last year as Vance competed for the running-mate job with Marco Rubio, Doug Burgum and others. In fact, the president’s eldest son made clear a recent report about his own possible presidential ambitions was wrong.
“When I went all-in for JD for VP, I was up against every billionaire Republican donor. I used up my political capital with my father until, like, 2079,” Trump Jr. said Monday.
The past decade of GOP politics is littered with the failed efforts of Trump’s rivals: Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Seen during the pandemic as the future of the party, DeSantis rankled some of Trump’s most fervent supporters when he ran against him last year. Now the Republican base includes a number of “never-DeSantis” voters.
All of which could boost the vice president: At this moment, there’s no clear alternative for the Republican party.
Several GOP lawmakers demurred when asked about the Trump succession plan. Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., a big Vance fan, said “I’m not giving you any good copy on this.”
“JD is great. I think there’s a reason why he picked him to be VP. Not for successor stuff, necessarily, but I think he’s very much aligned, very much in touch with where the party is right now and where the momentum is,” Schmitt said.
Asked who might succeed Trump, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., replied “Nobody knows the answer to that.” He added that while his colleagues say it’s likely to be Vance, the primary “might as well be a light year away.”
“About 70% of the senators think they ought to be president. The scary thing is that they think they’re qualified,” Kennedy said.
He did, at least, take himself off the list: “I have no ambitions to be king for a day, or a week, or four years.”
Burgess and Shelby’s View
Vance, no matter his clout with MAGA die-hards, is unlikely to have the same swath of loyal followers that Trump has enjoyed over the last several years. He could certainly have primary challengers from his old Senate colleagues or ascendant governors.
And Vance will have to earn the scars necessary for Trump backers to stay in his corner by defending the president for three more years in the most aggressive fashion possible. Vance is earning that cred with moments like his Oval Office brawl with Zelenskyy.
If Vance can help marshal through the big tax cuts and border spending Trump wants, then help defend the GOP’s majorities in the midterms, he’ll be in a good position to succeed Trump and potentially even earn an endorsement.
But there are risks to that approach, too. The Trump administration is disrupting Washington and openly entertaining the possibility of a recession. If the economy doesn’t fare well, Vance will be the one answering for it down the line.
Room for Disagreement
Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., joined Trump Jr. as unabashed Vance boosters during the 2024 campaign. He’s among the increasingly influential crop of MAGA-aligned Republicans who see no other choice but Vance to succeed Trump.
“We’re three years away from that, but JD is the future of the party. I think by then he’ll be in a stronger position than he is today,” Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., told Semafor. “President Trump knew this time that he was picking a vice president, but he was also cementing the future of the party.”
Notable
- Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who has Donald Trump’s ear, predicted this week that JD Vance “will be the nominee” and that as of now, there’s no “other conceivable option.”
- Some Trump allies refer to Vance as “48,” according to Axios.
Dave Weigel contributed to this report.