The News
Lawmakers are on the verge of leaving Washington without a firm path forward for passing aid to Ukraine, as Kyiv struggles with ammunition shortages on the battlefield.
Multiple members suggested to Semafor the House could vote on an assistance package in April, following the two-week Easter recess. But the shape the measure will take is unclear. Lawmakers are trying to force votes on two competing foreign aid bills using discharge petitions. A contingent of House Republicans who back Ukraine, led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, are also crafting on their own proposal.
There is also growing interest in turning some of the Ukraine assistance into a waivable loan — an idea first floated by former President Donald Trump — as a means of convincing hesitant Republicans to vote in favor of the package. Even some Democrats say they are open to the idea.
“I think the language of it would be unique but I think it’s possible,” Rep. Mike Quigley, D-Ill. told Semafor. “At this point, timing is so critical, just give us something that gets the job done.”
But some Republicans have dismissed the loan proposal, underscoring just how tangled the politics of Ukraine have become. They include Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who on Wednesday implored House leaders to take up the bill passed by the Senate in February that combines $60 billion in Ukraine aid with assistance for Israel and allies in Asia.
At least some Ukraine skeptics also appear to be cold on the loan idea. “It’s like you getting a loan on a car that’s blown up,” Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C. told Semafor. “No engine, no tires. How do you get paid back?”
The View From the house
House Speaker Mike Johnson has said repeatedly that Congress would address the foreign aid bill after completing work on annual spending bills, which are expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week. He told GOP senators during a closed-door meeting last week that he was committed to finding a path forward for Ukraine assistance, but hasn’t offered specifics on what kind of package he would bring to the floor.
That’s left other members to try and fill in the blank, at least publicly.
Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass. has spearheaded a discharge petition that would simply bring the Senate’s aid bill to the floor. By Wednesday it had attracted 185 Democrats, but no Republicans. A rival effort from Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa. has only 15 signatures and would force a vote on his bipartisan package including military aid for Ukraine and border security measures. Each petition would need at least 218 names to succeed.
Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he believed the House would ultimately bring the Senate’s bill to the floor, though the exact timing would ultimately be “Republicans’ decision.” .
“I’m hearing when we come back from Easter recess,” he said.
But Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., who authored a white paper on Ukraine Johnson personally brought to the White House, said he believed House Republicans would move to pass Israel assistance as a standalone bill — something they have tried before — which could further complicate the path for Ukraine aid.
“And then the only thing you really may have to couple up is the Ukraine funding with an H.R. 2 light,” he told Semafor, referring to House Republicans’ border security bill (which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has declared a nonstarter in the upper chamber).
Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, meanwhile, said he is “pushing very hard” for any aid bill to include the REPO Act, which would allow the U.S. to use seized Russian assets to pay for Ukraine reconstruction.
The View From the senate
Despite McConnell’s opposition, some Republican senators are open to the idea of turning some aid into a loan for Ukraine.
“There’s more than one way to skin the cat,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. told Semafor. “Our goal is to get the assistance to Ukraine that’s necessary. So if they want to call it something different, but the end result is that we get it in, I’m fine with looking at those things.”
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah echoed those remarks, while noting that Ukraine was unlikely to actually pay the money back. “If that gets some people over the line, fine, because ultimately Ukraine is not going to pay back a loan to the U.S. It’s going to be a loan that is forgiven at some point down the road,” he told Semafor.
Senate Ukraine supporters are worried about the timeline, however.
“Time is of the essence,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. told Semafor. “I said earlier, can you imagine if you’re a soldier in a trench somewhere in Ukraine being shelled right now looking at Congress going, ‘Oh, we want to support Ukraine. Oh where’s the time, we’re going on recess. We’ll pick this up in two weeks.’ This is life consequences with the delay so we need to move quickly.”
The View From the white house
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan traveled to Ukraine on Wednesday to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his top aide Andriy Yermak to assure them of U.S. support, despite the impasse over future assistance.
Sullivan insisted during a news conference that Ukraine “should believe in the United States.”
“I know there are questions here because of the back and forth in our Congress and the months that have gone by without the supplemental bill coming through,” Sullivan said. “But from our perspective, we are confident we will get this done. We will get this aid to Ukraine.”
A White House official also dismissed the idea of passing some Ukraine aid as a loan, arguing it would prolong the process and raise questions about what happens to other elements of the Senate-passed national security package.
“We just need Ukraine aid ASAP. The challenge of the loan is it has to go back to the Senate,” the official told Semafor. “It’s much better for the House to just simply take up the bill that has already passed the Senate.”
Notable
- The Pentagon announced a $300 million weapons package for Ukraine last week, which officials said was being drawn from unforeseen cost savings.
- U.S. ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel recently told Semafor that a failure to pass the aid package would hurt U.S. credibility in Asia. “Asia is very focused on what America is going to do in Europe, because if we’re not going to follow through, nobody is going to follow us in Asia,” he said.