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Democrats still reeling from a divisive shutdown fight will need to find a strategy quickly to confront an even more consequential battle over the US debt ceiling.
While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer took the brunt of his party’s ire for his handling of government funding, his bind stemmed from top Democrats’ lack of a cohesive response once House Republicans passed their own plan to avert a shutdown.
Now that House Speaker Mike Johnson proved he can squeeze through tough legislation along party lines, the challenge for Democrats looks different.
If the GOP can’t get the votes to lift the debt limit on its own — and Republican senators and aides are skeptical they can, given resistance from fiscal hardliners — they’ll need Democratic votes. Democrats have two basic options: Engage with Republicans on a bipartisan agreement that could include Democratic priorities like disaster relief, or dig in and say it’s the other party’s problem.
Democrats are discussing now how to avoid stumbling into another internal split this summer when the US exhausts its borrowing limit, according to interviews with a dozen party lawmakers. After the shutdown fiasco, and given their voters’ clamor for more pushback against the Trump White House, they do not want to be caught flat-footed this time.
“We will need a strategy, and we need to be unified,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., told Semafor. “We have leverage. And we should use it.”
The shutdown battle exposed Democrats’ deep strategic divisions, and they’re entering the debt fight with lots of disparate ideas. As Schumer starts preliminary talks with his leadership team, his caucus is cleaving between those who want to use the US checkbook as leverage and those who don’t.
“A great deal depends on whether the experience of the last two weeks is going to lead us to a more bipartisan effort in the future. That’s the threshold question,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., of the debt ceiling. “If the answer is yes, we can talk about it.”
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who criticized most Democrats for flirting with a shutdown this month, said that when it comes to the debt, “I refuse to take a hostage like that.”
“I can’t support defaulting on our debt. It’s just like shutting the government down. The impact will be catastrophic,” Fetterman told Semafor on Tuesday. Fetterman then spotted Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and added: “He might disagree with me on that.”
Sanders declined to comment for this story. Still, many Democrats question why they should help Trump’s party raise the debt ceiling when Republicans are planning trillions of dollars in tax cuts that will increase the deficit.
“Why should we do that?” asked Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. “I want to know what the Republicans are offering. They seem to think they can run this government with no help from the Democrats. Let’s watch them do it.”
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The government funding battle demonstrated Trump’s singlehanded ability to muscle legislation through the House despite Johnson’s small majority. That includes the budget that the Senate could take up as soon as next month, which sets up a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase.
Many in the party are hopeful the scars from the shutdown fight will mean a more cohesive position on the debt ceiling.
“There’s an internalization [that] we’ve got to be less risk-averse. And I think Schumer gets that. And I think there will be more thinking well in advance about what to do on the debt ceiling,” said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt.
Senate Republicans discussed whether to follow the House and try to raise the debt ceiling along party lines at their weekly lunch Tuesday but reached no decision, according to multiple members. Majority Leader John Thune privately touted a GOP-only tax bill as the easiest path forward on the debt ceiling.
Still, several sources warned Semafor that the $4 trillion level under discussion might not last through the midterms; if Republicans strike a deal with Democrats, they could suspend the debt ceiling through the next election, removing a political headache.
While it’s still possible to cajole enough conservatives to get a debt bill passed without Democrats, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said Republicans will be “reluctant” to try that: “All of these things are done better if they’re done in a bipartisan way.”
House Democrats aren’t so sure. Republicans pushed their party’s government funding bill through the chamber with the support of just one Democrat. And recent deaths of former Democratic Reps. Raul Grijalva of Arizona and Sylvester Turner of Texas gave Johnson more room to maneuver.
“They’re feeling emboldened,” one House Democrat said of the GOP. “I don’t see them coming to us for anything … They’re going to do what they can by themselves.”
But if Republicans do come asking for help, Democrats want real concessions.
“If we have other things in the bill, obviously, we’ll look at it,” Rep. Juan Vargas, D-Calif., told Semafor.
As of right now, he added he’s a “hell no.”
The Bipartisan Policy Center expects the Treasury Department to stop being able to pay its bills sometime between mid-July and early October — later in the year than many had expected, said Elizabeth Pancotti, a former adviser to Sanders and now the managing director of policy and advocacy at progressive nonprofit Groundwork Collaborative.
The longer runway gives members more time to negotiate. It also means more time for Democrats to stew over Trump’s use of executive power.
“They seem to get more pissed every day,” Pancotti said. “Obviously, default is bad; avoiding default is good — but there does come a breaking point.”
Burgess and Eleanor’s View
Democrats pride themselves on being responsible and not playing games with the debt ceiling. But this month’s painful shutdown fight has made them rethink their tactics, and the debt ceiling is undeniably a possible leverage point for Schumer and his caucus.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, while he doesn’t have the filibuster at his disposal, may also find his party’s votes are needed. Back in 2017, Schumer and then-House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi were able to negotiate with Trump directly.
Coordination will be critical. If Schumer and Jeffries can’t agree on a path forward, ideally before Republicans approach their members with a plan, Democrats risk becoming further enmeshed in the infighting that ensued when Schumer broke from much of his party on government funding.
Room for Disagreement
One prominent progressive is in favor of avoiding any gamesmanship over the debt ceiling. Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., wants to go back to Sen. Mitch McConnell’s old plan. The gist: The limit rises automatically, and Congress gets a fast-tracked disapproval vote that likely fails.
“What was good when Obama was in office seemed to work pretty well. Let’s do it again,” Merkley told Semafor.
Notable
- Democrats should pick a fight over the debt if they can to show resistance to Trump, despite their previous resistance to risking default, The New Republic argues.
- Trump told Republicans he wants to keep the debt limit in their party-line tax bill, Politico reported.