The News
Wisconsin will go to the polls Tuesday to elect a new state Supreme Court justice, in what has become this year’s most high-profile election with national implications, and high stakes for US President Donald Trump and his billionaire adviser Elon Musk.
The race pits a Democrat-backed judge, Susan Crawford, against Trump-endorsed Brad Schimel. Schimel’s victory would tilt the court to a conservative majority, with nationwide consequences for the future of abortion rights, congressional redistricting, and voting laws, potentially impacting the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election in the critical battleground state.
It’s become the most expensive judicial race in the US’ history: Groups linked to Musk have given $17 million to support Schimel, and a PAC he founded offered voters $100 to sign a petition opposing “activist judges.” Musk also handed out two $1 million checks to voters Sunday who signed the petition after the state’s high court refused to hear a case that his payments amounted to bribery.
SIGNALS
The race is a referendum on Trump…
Political analysts widely see the Wisconsin election as an early test for how voters judge the start of Trump’s second term. Schimel is leaning heavily into his Trump endorsement — a “risky” strategy, a local pollster told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Pro-Trump voters may be more energized to go to the polls, but it could also mobilize more Democrats. One Milwaukee voter who supports Crawford told The New York Times that “if you’re unhappy with the presidential election, it’s a way to send a message.” Conservatives, though, see the election as a way to block liberal judges who “legislate from the bench” to enact policies that lack support from lawmakers, a Schimel voter said.
…and on Musk
Musk has become central to the election through his gambits aimed at mobilizing support for Schimel. Democrats have accused Schimel of being “bought” by the billionaire. “Eighty per cent of our canvassing interactions are about Musk,” a Democratic Party leader in Waukesha County told The New Yorker. Musk has a personal stake in the race, since the Wisconsin Supreme Court could soon hear a case related to a state law barring automakers from selling directly to consumers, which Tesla has challenged. But Democrats’ strategy of putting Musk on the ballot ignores voters’ real concerns, The Wall Street Journal argued.
Tariffs are on the ballot, too
The Wisconsin vote will also test support for Trump’s trade policy in rural areas. Wisconsin’s agricultural communities helped Trump win the state, but they are now particularly uneasy about the tariffs he’s imposing, Politico reported. How conservative support in rural regions stacks up to Trump’s performance in 2024 will be “the biggest signal that we’re going to get headed in the midterms,” a rural policy specialist said. A majority of rural Wisconsin voters think tariffs hurt, not help, the economy, according to a recent poll. But one local Republican lawmaker brushed off concerns, saying, “these people are by and large red voters… they see that the red side is Brad Schimel.”