The ‘uniparty’ is passing Ukraine aid. Can it save Mike Johnson’s job?

If Johnson does face a challenge and survive, he’ll be able to thank the power of transactional politics.

His predecessor, former speaker Kevin McCarthy, managed to alienate his opposition in all manner of ways. In their view, he helped rehabilitate Trump’s reputation after January 6, starting with a visit to Mar-a-Lago. After gaining some goodwill by negotiating a bipartisan debt ceiling deal, he quickly backed off the spending numbers and suggested he’d seek deeper cuts. He also infuriated Democrats by greenlighting an impeachment probe into President Biden.

Despite their “trust issues” with McCarthy, many Democrats were still debating whether to save him up until the days before his ouster. But they also wanted specific concessions, possibly including a promise to bring up a vote on Ukraine. As Virginia Rep. Jim McGovern put it: “I am not a cheap date.”

McCarthy offered nothing, and instead antagonized them by giving a Sunday show interview in which he blamed Democrats for a near government shutdown. Democratic lawmakers watched a clip of that appearance at the meeting where they decided to cut him loose.

Johnson, in contrast, has already given Democrats the single biggest item on their wish list — a Ukraine aid bill largely similar to the one passed by the Senate. Nor has he gone out of his way to antagonize them by attaching poison pill provisions or resorting to partisan chest thumping in the final stretch.

“The first rule of politics is you first have to ask someone for their vote. And the second is, you got to be prepared for something transactional,” Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips who said he’s “inclined” to back Johnson, told Semafor. “McCarthy didn’t just do neither of those. He also berated us. And I think that speaker Johnson has handled himself much more appropriately.”

Not all Democrats think the Ukraine bill alone will be enough to secure their party’s support, but it has at the very least set the stage for a deal. “If Speaker Johnson came to see us and wants to have a conversation, there are a number of Democrats, including myself, who are willing to have that conversation,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin. “It doesn’t happen on its own. Republicans would never save Nancy Pelosi without some sort of deal. But I would be open to it.”

Republicans are mostly frank that Johnson is now governing in a bipartisan coalition with Democrats, whom he relied on to pass a budget deal and a reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The partnership has extended to Democrats helping on what were once considered routine partyline procedural votes that the most conservative GOP members have recently used to try and halt legislation.

The national security package was the culmination of that trend: Democrats took the rare step of helping advance the bills move through the rules committee, before lending 165 yeas to pass Friday’s rule vote.

For conservatives, leaning into the coalition has been Johnson’s chief sin. “It’s the uni-party,” said Arizona Rep. Eli Crane, deploying a phrase popular in conservative media. “I think it’s horrible for the American people.” More mainline members see it as a matter of necessity in the face of right-wing obstinance. “We don’t really have a majority,” Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart told Semafor. “What we have is basically the conservative Republican Speaker who has to form coalitions in order to get things done.”

But relying on Democrats to avoid a motion to vacate may heighten the tension further. South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman told Semafor he opposed the effort to dump Johnson, but suggested turning to Democrats to survive the vote could potentially further damage the speaker’s ability to manage his conference. “Time will tell,” he said.

Even if Democrats can save Johnson temporarily, there’s no guarantee he could hold on to his speakership beyond this year. House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good, who helped knock out McCarthy, told the Washington Post he didn’t support a motion to vacate for now, but believed the the speakership should be dealt with after this year’s elections. The coalition with Democrats, he told the paper, “does not reflect the intention or the desire of the American people.”