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WARREN, Mich. — President Donald Trump spent the first 100 days of his second term doing just about everything he could unilaterally. He’ll spend the next 100 applying the same brute force to the narrowly controlled Republican Congress.
The president used a swing-state stop on Tuesday to tout his early successes in office, focusing on his moves to stanch illegal border crossings and secure investment commitments in the US. At the same time, his poll numbers are sinking in several key areas as markets wobble thanks to a global trade war he launched.
The numbers tell the tale of a presidency that so far has relied on executive power over legislative prowess: Trump has signed 140 orders, but just five laws, during his first three months in office.
Trump and congressional Republicans are betting that a massive tax cut bill will help stabilize the economy, and the president’s standing. If they can pass what he calls a “big, beautiful bill” rolling together tax cuts, national security funding and spending cuts, the party will have more room to celebrate. But if the bill stalls out, Republicans will have to mount a painful scramble to regroup on the president’s agenda.
“The big prize is the reconciliation package,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told Semafor, referring to the procedure for passing the measure without Democratic votes. “We’ll know in a couple weeks here if the one big beautiful bill survives.”
Trump seems to recognize the importance Congress will play over the next few months, telling reporters at the White House on Tuesday that his “biggest focus” will be the Hill for a stretch as he tries to push his tax bill through. Vice President JD Vance visited Senate Republicans as Trump prepared to travel, mostly listening as his former colleagues hashed over their plans, according to Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla.
During an appearance in Michigan, Trump played to his base — declaring to a few thousand supporters that “in 100 days, we have delivered the most profound change in Washington in 100 years.” He warned, in a preview of the arm-twisting that GOP lawmakers may soon get, that not passing a tax bill would lead to the biggest tax increase in US history.
Hill Republicans largely welcome Trump’s attention shift in their direction. They’re urging the president to be more vocal and clear about the specific contours of his tax agenda as they fight to coalesce around a final product by August. Narrow margins in both chambers mean that almost every Republican in the House and most Republicans in the Senate will have to vote for the legislation.
“He’s just got to stay on offense,” Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, told Semafor.
GOP lawmakers say they need particular help from the president resolving their biggest conflict: what to slash in order to pay for the tax cuts. The House and Senate passed a framework earlier this year that laid out dramatically different visions for paring back spending.
“Everyone is pretty on the same page — White House, House and Senate — that we need to make the Trump tax cuts permanent; fund the military; fund the border security issue; take care of the debt ceiling,” Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., told Semafor. “But the next goal is the toughest one: Where are we going to save money?”
Fiscal hawks want Trump to advocate more forcefully for deeper cuts — “the one thing that will fast-track the rest of the agenda,” Davidson said. But moderates hope the president can strong-arm those hardliners into supporting legislation that avoids the politically unpopular decision to slash social safety nets like Medicaid.
Trump has told allies he wants no cuts to Medicaid benefits, even as House Republicans consider proposals that could result in loss of coverage.
“It’s just hard,” Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., told Semafor. “You’ve got people in our conference that want one and a half trillion [dollars in spending cuts]; I think a lot of us thought a trillion was probably a better number.”
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Beyond the Hill, Trump is emphasizing the speed at which he’s acted on his campaign promises: He’s cut the federal workforce by at least 121,000, effectively shut down USAID, made moves to gut the Department of Education, invoked the Alien Enemies Act to aid in a mass deportation plan, eliminated DEI initiatives across the government, targeted federal funding for universities, banned transgender athletes from women’s sports, and more.
Among Republicans, the praise for his pace extends to even his occasional critics.
“Even though I’ve had disagreements … my overall perception is actually good,” said Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who has taken on Trump over his tariffs.
Trump’s sway in Congress will also be tested on cryptocurrency, another of his top priorities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told lawmakers privately Tuesday that he would bring legislation that would create rules for stablecoins — or crypto pegged to assets like the US dollar — to the Senate floor by Memorial Day, a person familiar with the remarks said.
But there are substantive differences between that bill and the House’s version, a schism that could delay any final action.
Trump has already issued multiple veto threats to blunt GOP interest in curbing his tariff power, and he may have to do more to quell dissent as the levies hit the US economy harder. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Senate Republicans Tuesday that the administration will be announcing trade deals over the next few weeks that could de-escalate the situation, a person in attendance told Semafor.
Thune told reporters that Trump’s polling swoon could be a short-term blip related to the trade war, saying his “policy decisions are the right ones, and I think over time that will bear fruit.”
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The next 100 days are likely to be more difficult for Trump, as he shifts away from relying on executive orders and more towards lawmakers in the party he’s remodeled in his image.
The president has already played an active role in helping Republicans get this far on his tax bill — he’s phoned holdouts, penned pressure-building Truth Social posts, and stayed in close touch with leadership. But the votes so far have only been on outlines, not fleshed-out legislation.
And filling out those blueprints, let alone aligning a diverse conference behind them, has already proven to be far more fraught. Getting that done will require Trump to tap levels of patience and focus that he hasn’t had to muster yet this year.
Room for Disagreement
Senate Democrats planned a late-night talkathon aimed at highlighting their case against Trump’s “100 Days of Chaos,” as a large poster next to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated on Tuesday.
“This is the most failing, failure, fantastically, of any president in four generations. The American public has already made it clear Donald Trump has failed us. He has the lowest approval rating of any president in 80 years,” said Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., at the press conference.
Notable
- The Washington Post curated 10 charts for Trump’s 100 days in office that detail everything from the number of signed executive orders to how the markets have reacted to his tariffs announcement.
- The Trump administration’s fast-moving first few months have been by design, as Semafor reported back in February: “It’s blitzing as much as we can until everyone is just tired,” one Trump aide said at the time.