Semafor Signals
Why Trump talking about Big Oil at the presidential debate could be a ‘win’ for the Republican frontrunner
Insights from Former Trump adviser George David Banks, Politico, the League of Conservation Voters, and CNN
The News
As much of the US experiences a record-breaking heat wave, analysts expect climate and energy to be among the key policy points to look out for during Thursdays’ presidential election debate between Democratic President Joe Biden and former President and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.
Climate advocacy organizations — including the League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club, and Evergreen Action — have pressed debate hosts CNN to specifically push Trump on his alleged quid-pro-quo campaign finance agreement with Big Oil executives.
But the debate could also highlight many Americans’ broader concern with energy security and pricing.
SIGNALS
Energy prices and independence might trump climate change for voters
If the debate hosts ask Trump about his deal with Bil Oil, it would be a “win” for him since Trump could boast about his ability to lower energy prices and secure energy independence, said former Trump White House climate advisor George David Banks — which, he added, are bigger issues for voters than the climate crisis. “That’s like a softball to Trump,” Banks told Semafor. “Trump is just going to say: ‘I want us to produce as much energy as possible.’” Tiernan Sittenfeld of the climate group League of Conservation Voters, meanwhile, argued that Trump’s ties to Big Oil are more about smart politics than the voters. “He’s not worried about saving people money,” she said.
There is hope for bipartisanship climate action, even under Trump
Some worry another Trump term would be an “all out war” on climate science and policies. But with a lot of the money from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act going to Republican districts — and younger conservatives increasingly concerned about climate change — lawmakers may “create a new momentum” around climate policy as a bipartisan issue, former Trump advisor Banks said, especially framed as pro-business policy. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga), vice chair of the Conservative Climate Cause, told Semafor that Biden’s “rush to green” initiatives, like the export pause on liquid natural gas, is raising emissions by pushing allies to buy fossil fuels from adversaries, but agrees that the US needs strong environmental regulations to not “cede that leadership to China,” a growing bipartisan talking point.
Fossil fuel industry is thriving under Biden
Despite promising to “destroy” the biggest culprits of greenhouse emissions, oil companies have made record profits under President Joe Biden, bringing in $250 billion between 2021 and 2023, a 160% jump compared to the first three years of the Trump administration, according to CNN. The windfall “underscores the limited influence of any US president” on the energy industry, CNN noted, and issues beyond Biden’s control, like the war in Ukraine and a post-pandemic surge in travel, have driven the record-demand for oil. But at the same time, through the Inflation Reduction Act, “President Biden has done more to invest in clean energy jobs” than any former administration, the League’s Sittenfeld told Semafor, again highlighting the two candidates’ diverging attitudes to the environment.