Biden is staying — or so the Trump campaign says

Donald Trump’s campaign team and key supporters were sitting at long tables inside a gymnasium on Georgia Tech’s campus, watching on a large monitor on one wall when Joe Biden began speaking, sounding frail and unwell.

And even in that Trump war room, there was an “audible gasp,” a person present said.

As the evening wore on, people in the room began to joke that maybe Democrats would replace Biden on the ticket — a popular notion on the right, espoused most prominently by Vivek Ramaswamy, that had long been dismissed inside the campaign as a conspiracy theory. As Trump confidants watched Biden struggle in Atlanta, though, it remained an idea that “nobody actually took seriously,” a second person said.

But then the headlines began rolling out, and the mood in the room seemed to shift slightly. During the last commercial break, both people said, some of Trump’s campaign team members went up to the front of the room to reiterate talking points for the surrogates ahead of descending on the spin room.

One of the key points, these people told Semafor, was that it is too late for Democrats to replace Biden. Democrats had picked him as their nominee — and the Trump campaign went out fighting to keep it that way.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum told reporters on the spin room floor that Democrats would have “their challenges on trying to swap out.” RNC committeeman David Bossie said it was too late to replace the president. Trump advisor Jason Miller spent the weekend making the same argument: That “Joe Biden’s definitely going to be the Democratic nominee,” as he told Fox News’ MediaBuzz on Sunday.

One Trump aide pointed out that, in addition to Biden being the incumbent, even if something happened to him, the next person in line would be Vice President Kamala Harris, someone who they’re already also running against. “How could they skip past the VP, who is also the first Black and first female VP?” the person said.

A second Trump aide maintained that, despite the campaign’s stance that they’ll definitely face Biden come November, the team is “prepared for all eventualities.” What that means specifically, however, is unclear. (In a statement, Trump campaign spokeswoman Danielle Alverez told Semafor that the campaign “is prepared for victory” because Trump is the nominee, and offers “a stark contrast” to Biden.)

What is clear? Team Trump — even as they relish in the ongoing five-alarm fire surrounding Biden, and even as calls from Democrats for Biden to step aside reach a fever pitch — still don’t seem to be embracing the theory.

Trump’s and Biden’s campaigns — weirdly enough — have an overlapping take on the Democratic nomination, with both sides listing similar reasons for why they expect Biden to remain atop the ticket: It would invite a chaotic convention, and there’s no consensus alternative who polls better than Biden.

But some of Trump’s allies in the party don’t seem to share the sentiment — including The Heritage Foundation, which has spent millions of dollars developing “Project 2025” in the hopes of aiding Trump should he take office again.

In a memo dated June 21, and highlighted in a press call to reporters after Thursday’s debate, the group explained how they’re preparing possible legal challenges should Democrats swap Biden out. They said their project, commissioned roughly four months ago, dives into the laws on substituting a presidential candidate across various states.

“We are monitoring the calls from across the country for President Biden to step aside, either now or before the election, and have concluded that the process for substitution and withdrawal is very complicated,” Mike Howell, executive director of The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, told Fox News. “We will remain vigilant that appropriate election integrity procedures are followed.”

Nikki Haley, who liked to needle Democrats during her run by predicting a Harris presidency, is also publicly urging Trump to start planning now for a replacement nominee who might have a completely different set of strengths and weaknesses than Biden.

“They are going to be smart about it: they’re going to bring somebody younger, they’re going to bring somebody vibrant, they’re going to bring somebody tested,” she told The Wall Street Journal after the debate. “This is a time for Republicans to prepare and get ready for what’s to come because there is no way that there will be a surviving Democratic Party if they allow Joe Biden to continue to be the candidate.”

Many Democrats still see Biden’s position as fluid, though the New York Times reports his family is urging him to tough it out. It would be ironic if Trump, of all people, made a mistake by wrongly assuming that they held Biden in higher esteem. But as someone who faced his own late calls (for very different reasons) to drop out of a presidential race that he ended up winning, maybe Trump is one of the rare people who can understand why Biden would tell his Democratic critics to buzz off.

Regardless, it’s clear Thursday’s debate is playing to Trump’s advantage, and his team is happy to let that drama percolate. As one of the people present on debate night put it? “They’re trying to make it as painful as possible as this conversation plays out.”

For team Biden, the message has been clear and concise: He’s not dropping out. They’ve worked quickly to squash doubts and theories that the president plans to step aside. Those efforts have included a fundraising email showing that Biden performs the best against Trump when compared to Democratic alternatives, pushing out details on their record-setting grassroots fundraising, and an all-staff meeting in which Biden’s deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks maintained that “nothing fundamentally changed about this election last night.”

• Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders admitted to Semafor that the debate went poorly for the president — but pushed back on calls for him to step down, our own Dave Weigel reported from Wisconsin.
• Many within the White House were surprised by Joe Biden’s performance on Thursday, in part because his closest aides have long shielded him from interacting too heavily with staffers, Axios reported on Sunday.