Semafor Signals
Ex-spy chief becomes prime minister of the Netherlands, but analysts question his staying power
Insights from Politico, Friedrich Naumann Foundation, European Council on Foreign Relations, and De Volkskrant
The News
Former Dutch intelligence chief Dick Schoof was sworn in as prime minister of the Netherlands on Tuesday after more than seven months of negotiations following far-right firebrand Geert Wilders’ party’s victory in elections last November.
Schoof will head up a broadly right-wing coalition government, and has promised to implement the country’s “strictest ever” policies on asylum and immigration.
Members of Wilders’ Freedom Party secured five out of 15 top ministerial posts, including trade and migration.
SIGNALS
Schoof could struggle with politicking
As a career civil servant, Dick Schoof’s name was practically unknown to the Dutch public until this week, Politico reported. Without government experience or a history of political campaigning, he faces a “baptism of fire” in the weeks ahead, a professor of politics told the Financial Times — and although his time spent leading government agencies may mean he knows how secure his own position, it’s difficult to know how he will respond under pressure from Wilders, another told Radio France Internationale.
Wilders has entered the corridors of power ‘like a Trojan horse’
Schoof insists he won’t be Wilders’ puppet, and that he wants to lead on behalf of “all the Dutch.” But despite shelving his own bid to become prime minister during coalition negotiations, Wilders has entered the corridors of power “like a Trojan horse,” a director of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, a non-profit devoted to liberal politics, argued. In turn, Wilders has ample opportunities to champion the Freedom Party’s agenda, he added. Wilders has had to back away from a policy to exit from the European Union, but the bloc may nevertheless encounter a much more combative Netherlands, particularly on climate targets and asylum policy, the European Council on Foreign Relations noted in May.
The coalition may not last long
The Schoof coalition is the Netherlands’ “biggest political gamble” since the Second World War, and there is little trust between its partners, a columnist argued in Dutch daily De Volkskrant. Most already have one eye on the exit. Challenges could also come from below: Voters will feel disillusioned if the government fails to deliver on some of Wilders’ election promises, many of which could prove unrealistic or unconstitutional, an expert told The New York Times. “I wouldn’t bet on this cabinet being in place for four years,” he added.
